Brisk Wind Advisory 118, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
145 PM AKST MON MAR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND
THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A RIDGE OVER NW CANADA. A SECOND LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE EAST AND MERGE WITH THE
FIRST LONG WAVE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO
BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER INTERIOR ALASKA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A GENERALLY WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA AND MEANS A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN WARM
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA.

A LOW ALOFT NEAR POINT HOPE WILL MOVE TO CAPE LISBURNE BY 3AM TUE
AND TO 200 NM NORTH OF POINT HOPE BY 3AM WED. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

A SECOND AND WEAKER LOW ALOFT NEAR EAGLE WILL MOVE NORTH OF OLD
CROW BY 3AM TUE AND TO DEMARCATION POINT BY 3PM TUE. A BROAD AREA
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OVER ZONES
220 AND 224 WILL PARTIALLY BREAK UP TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS NORTH OVER THOSE AREAS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -2C OVER THE SW INTERIOR TO -18C
OVER THE NE INTERIOR. WILL SEE SOUTHERN INTERIOR COOL A FEW
DEGREES C THROUGH WED WHILE THE NORTH SLOPE RISES A FEW DEGREES C
THROUGH WED.

SURFACE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE RUSSIA WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH
WED. THIS IS CAUSING MODERATE NORTH WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST
THAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WED.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF
ALASKA WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH WED THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS CAUSING NE WINDS 20-30 KT ALONG WITH LOW
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW AND FOG ALONG MUCH OF THE THE ARCTIC
COAST WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY.
EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 40KT IN ZONES 203 AND 204 ARE CAUSING VERY
LOW VISIBILITIES THERE THAT WILL LAST TONIGHT AND THEN IMPROVE
SLOWLY TUE AS WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE.

A WEATHER FRONT IN BRISTOL BAY TO NEAR KODIAK THEN SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE BY 3AM TUE TO ST PAUL ISLAND TO
KING SALMON THEN EAST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE...THEN TO CAPE
NEWENHAM TO FAIRBANKS TO EAGLE BY 3PM TUE...TO BETHEL TO TANANA
TO OLD CROW BY 3AM WED...THEN DISSIPATING IN PLACE. EXPECT
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH THE FRONT. NE WINDS 10G20KT
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL DECREASE TUE WITH THE FRONT.

A SECOND WEATHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE
NORTH TO THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST WED AND OVER THE SE INTERIOR
THU. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS.

A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA WED AND
TO THE SE BERING BY EARLY THU. THIS WILL FEED MOISTURE NORTH OVER
THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR WED NIGHT AND THU BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW THERE WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 3PM
WED. MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION COMING NORTH OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS TUE AND WED. NAM AND ECMF
HAS WIDER AREAS OF PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT GIVEN
THE WEAK SOUTHERN FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE EXPECT LIMITED
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

JB MAR 16