Brisk Wind Advisory 110, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
133 PM AKST THU MAR 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN LOOKING A BIT DIFFERENT
FROM THE BROKEN RECORD THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED FOR THE PAST FEW
MONTHS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING FROM THE
WEST COAST/SE ALASKA EASTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH
BROAD TROUGHING REPLACING THE RIDGING OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. TWO
UPPER LOWS WERE OBSERVED IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...ONE AT 502 DM NEAR
48N 149W AND A SECOND ONE SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS WEST OF THE
DATELINE NEAR 46N 172E AT 504 DM. OVER THE ARCTIC A 533 DM HIGH
WAS SEEN NEAR 80N 145W...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A 496 DM LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND ANOTHER AT 500 DM OFF THE NORTH COAST OF
SIBERIA. AT THE SURFACE...18Z ANALYSIS SHOWS 963 MB LOW STACKED
BENEATH THE 502 DM UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND 982
MB LOW STACKED BENEATH THE 504 DM LOW OFF THE WEST ALEUTIANS. A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WAS SEEN OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST OF ALASKA
IN THE ARCTIC...A 1038 MB LOW WAS SEEN JUST WEST OF THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE...OR THROUGH ABOUT 120 HOURS. THE DUAL LOW CENTERS ALOFT IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL
GRADUALLY CONGEAL INTO BROADER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM...RIDGING SHIFTS WESTWARD AGAIN AND BUILDS
UP THE PACIFIC COAST AND INTO EASTERN ALASKA ONCE
AGAIN...PERSISTENCE IS THE MAGIC WORD FOR THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THIS WINTER AFTER ALL. WHAT THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO IS A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN STARTING LATE THIS
WEEKEND AFTER SOME MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NORTH SLOPE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE EAST
FROM THE 963 MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC PIVOTS NORTHWARD. WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
BLOWING SNOW. AREAS OF FOG AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE ARCTIC COAST INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECTING SUB ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WITH PREVAILING VISIBILITIES REMAINING AT A MILE OR
MORE.

WEST COAST...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND COMBINED
WITH SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL BRING PERIODS
OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES FOR THE WEST COAST AND WEST INTERIOR
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE STATE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT...LASTING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

INTERIOR...SIMILAR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEST COAST..WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO UPPER LOW OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA. FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
SATURDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH
QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING OVER THE INTERIOR EXPECTING WINDS TO
INCREASE OVER SUMMITS FOR THE TRADITIONAL AREAS IN A NORTHEAST
FLOW PATTERN FOR ZONES 218 TO 221. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

NTS MAR 16