Brisk Wind Advisory 102, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
245 PM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH ONLY FIRST 48 HOURS. ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SECOND LOW MOVING NORTH
IN THE PACIFIC. THE PAIR OF LOWS WILL ROTATE FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC TO JUST NORTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND RECYCLE THEMSELVES
WITH THE NEXT SUCCEEDING LOW.

THE MODERATELY STRONG HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC COMBINED WITH THE
FAIRLY STRONG LOWS MOVING JUST INTO THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT OVER THE BERING SEA AND IN PARTICULAR
THE BERING STRAIT WITH THE NORTH ORIENTED WIND.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY. THEN ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING THAT WILL LIKELY KICK OFF A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG FOR MUCH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST...BUT THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST IN PARTICULAR. GIVEN THAT
THERE IS NO FALLING SNOW ON THE ARCTIC COAST...DON'T BELIEVE THAT
THE CONDITIONS WILL REACH BLIZZARD ON A REGULAR BASIS ALTHOUGH
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED OCCASIONALLY.

SOUTH FLOW AT 700 MB SETS UP IN THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT AS WELL
AS SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. COUPLE THIS WITH
A TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND IT IS LIKELY THAT WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...THEREFORE
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220.
&&

CF FEB 16