Blizzard Watch 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

441 
WWAK41 PAFG 281443
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
543 AM AKST WED DEC 28 2016

AKZ201-290000-
/O.UPG.PAFG.BZ.A.0004.161229T1800Z-161230T1500Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.BZ.W.0016.161229T1500Z-161230T1500Z/
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST-
INCLUDING...WAINWRIGHT...ATQASUK...POINT LAY...CAPE LISBURNE
543 AM AKST WED DEC 28 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM AKST
FRIDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* VISIBILITY...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW.

* WINDS...EAST GUSTING TO 50 MPH.

* SNOW...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING WITH SNOW AND
  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
  SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL 
  ACCUMULATE INTO DRIFTS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. TRAVEL 
  AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITIES ARE
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$

AKZ205-290000-
/O.UPG.PAFG.WS.A.0012.161229T1800Z-161230T1500Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WS.W.0014.161229T1800Z-161230T1500Z/
NORTHWESTERN BROOKS RANGE-
INCLUDING...SINGILUK...UMIAT
543 AM AKST WED DEC 28 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM AKST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* SNOW...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN BLOWING SNOW.

* WINDS...SOUTH GUSTING 50 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST
  DURING THE DAY. SNOW WILL DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
  WILL INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. WINDS
  WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$

AKZ206-290000-
/O.NEW.PAFG.WS.W.0014.161229T2100Z-161230T1500Z/
NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-
INCLUDING...ANAKTUVUK PASS...ATIGUN PASS...GALBRAITH LAKE...
SAGWON...FRANKLIN BLUFFS
543 AM AKST WED DEC 28 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM AKST FRIDAY.

* LOCATION...IN PASSES.

* SNOW...WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES ACCUMULATION.

* VISIBILITY...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. 

* WINDS...SOUTH GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS
  WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
  MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE
  INTO DRIFTS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. TRAVEL AND
  OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$

AKZ202-290000-
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0080.161229T2100Z-161230T1500Z/
NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST-
INCLUDING...BARROW...ALAKTAK...PITT POINT...NULAVIK
543 AM AKST WED DEC 28 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM
AKST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON
THURSDAY TO 6 AM AKST FRIDAY.

* VISIBILITY...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN BLOWING SNOW.

* WINDS...EAST GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

* SNOW...3 INCHES.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY WITH NEAR BLIZZARD
  CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
  CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS
  DECREASE. 

* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE
  INTO DRIFTS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
  ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT ONE OR MORE WINTER WEATHER
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
446 AM AKST Tue Dec 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave trough over mainland Alaska will progress east into
Canada Wed as strong ridge builds over the eastern Bering Sea and
West Coast of Alaska. The ridge then builds east over mainland AK
Thu and then remains in place and amplifies further on the
weekend. Near normal temperatures under the long wave trough will
continue through Wed followed by a strong warming Thu and Fri.

A strong jet streak now visible on satellite just east of Japan
will move northeast and develop into a very strong short wave
trough over Kamchatka tonight...move into the Western Bering
Wed...along the West Coast Thu...and to the eastern Interior Fri.
As this short wave moves east across Alaska through this ridge
Thu and Fri will see a rapid warming to well above normal with
heavy snow...strong winds and blizzard conditions spreading east
across Ak with the short wave. Freezing rain is possible SW of
Kotzebue and McGrath on Thu with this next feature. Conditions
will remain warm and windy through the weekend.

Surface...
A 994 mb low in the southeast Beaufort Sea will move east
tonight.

a 988 mb vertically stacked low over the Seward Peninsula will
move to Koyuk by 3am Wed as a 1000 mb low...to Bettles by 3pm wed
as a 1012 mb low...and to Fort Yukon as a 1020 mb low by 3am Thu.
An old occluded front stretching south from this low will move
over the Western Interior today...to the Central Interior
tonight...and over the Eastern Interior Wed. Light snow associated
with the low and front now over the west coast from Kotzebue
south will spread east with the front and cause several inches of
snow inland.

An arctic cold front stretching from Old Crow west to Kotzebue
then south to the Yukon Delta will move to Eagle to Kotzebue to
Bettles by 2pm Tue...to Eagle to Koyuk to McGrath by 3am Wed...and
then moving rapidly to east to Eagle to Big Delta by 3pm Wed...and
east of the Alcan Border Wed night. There are flurries or light
snow showers along this feature that will increase to widespread
snow over the Interior. Expect Several inches of snow with the
front over the Interior tonight and Wed. There are also NE winds
15-25kt with this feature over the south slopes of the Brooks
range with gusts to 45 kt near Point Hope and north winds 25 kt
with the front along the west coast. Those winds will persist
today then begin to decrease tonight. Advisories for Blowing snow
in NW Alaska will end by this evening as the winds decrease.

A weak low south of Kamchatka will move into the western Bering
tonight and deepen rapidly through Wed to a 940 mb low in the
northwest Bering by 3pm Wed...to near Anadyr as a 955 mb low by
3pm Thu...and to just northwest of Wainwright as a 987 mb low
Fri. An associated front will move to the central Bering by 3pm
Wed...to Anadyr to Gambell to the Yukon Delta by 3am Thu...and to
Point Hope to Bethel by 3pm Thu...to Barrow to Barter Island to
Big Delta by 3am Fri...then east of the Alcan Border Fri pm.
Expect have snow with the front with 6-12 inches possible.
Rain or Freezing rain will be possible southwest of Kotzebue to
McGrath Thu and Thu night.

Expect Gale force winds with the front to spread northeast across
Alaska with the front. This will bring near blizzard conditions to
most of the west coast Wed night and Thu...and to the western
Interior Thu and Thu night and to the Eastern Interior Thu night
and Fri. This could cause major travel hazards...and could cause
power outages in the Interior where the winds could blow trees
over Thu night and Fri.

Southwest gale force winds following the front over the west coast
Thu could increase to storm force Late Thu and Fri. This could
cause a storm surge of 4-6 feet along much of the west coast of
Alaska from the Yukon Delta to Point Hope Thu night and Fri. At
this time unsure how much of this rise in sea level will propagate
beneath the thin and unconsolidated ice pack that is present
along most of the west coast. Given the severe weather
accompanying the rise in sea heights it will be difficult to
prepare ...people should prepare for minor flooding by moving
boats and other belongings away from the coast on Tue and Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models Initialize well at surface and aloft...and show similar
solutions through 3am Wed. Models continue to show similar long
wave pattern but differ some on timing and strength of short wave
troughs from Wed onward. After 3am Wed the GFS and EMCF deepen the
low entering the Western Bering Sea much more rapidly than the
NAM. Since this is the main feature for Wed and Thu...it is
originating outside of the NAM domain and the NAM is the odd model
out...will go with the GFS and ECMF solutions from Wed onward.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Southwest gale force winds following the front over the west coast
Thu could increase to storm force Late Thu night and Fri. This
could cause a storm surge of 4-6 feet along much of the west coast
of Alaska from the Yukon Delta to Point Hope Thu night and Fri. At
this time unsure how much of this rise in sea level will propagate
beneath the thin and unconsolidated ice pack that is present along
most of the West Coast. Given the severe weather accompanying the
rise in sea heights it will be difficult to take action during the
storm. People should prepare for minor flooding by moving boats
and other belongings away from the coast on Tue and Wed. The worst
conditions Thu night and Fri are expected at Gambell and the
Bering Strait where there is less ice.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ208-AKZ217.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230.
&&

JB DEC 16