Small Craft Advisory 879, NWS Anchorage, AK

402 
FZAK51 PAFC 110033
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111315-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 968 MB LOW 40 NM WEST OF SEWARD WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. A 965
MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 20 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND AT 978 MB FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INLAND FRI EVENING. A
FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FRI NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ119-111315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. NEAR THE COAST...E WIND 30 KT WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 50 KT DIMINISHING EARLY. SEAS 18 FT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-111315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING E WIND 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
STRONGER GUSTS 50 KT...DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING. SEAS 22 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-111315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS 50 KT DIMINISHING DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-111315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING 25 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-111315-
PORT VALDEZ-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-111315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-111315-
VALDEZ ARM-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-111315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT DURING THE EVENING.
STRONGER GUSTS 55 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-111315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-111315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-111315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-111315-
CHINIAK BAY-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-111315-
MARMOT BAY-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-111315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-111315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-111315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WIND BECOMING S 10
KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-111315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
333 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
542 AM AKST Thu Nov 10 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A large low remains centered south of the Gulf near 51N 151W and
has filled slightly to around 957 mb. One frontal wave over
Southwest Alaska continues to lift northwest from the Bristol Bay
area over the Kuskokwim Valley this morning. In addition to
bringing gusty northerly winds, this system is also bringing a
wide variety of precipitation types with it as it crosses the area
early this morning. Further east, in the northern Gulf and
southern Southcentral Alaska, several other waves/troughs are
pushing through. One is evident in stronger radar echoes along the
southern Kenai Peninsula and over Cook Inlet. The next wave is
north of Middleton Island, and just starting to push into eastern
Prince William Sound with another large wave west of the Southeast
Alaska Panhandle. A front associated with a low near the Kamchatka
Peninsula is pushing into the Western/Central Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Synoptically models remain in fair agreement through the end of
the week. Smaller scale details such as the various waves rotating
through the northern Gulf remain more elusive. Of particular
concern are the details of a compact low tracking over Kenai
Peninsula Thursday afternoon. The GFS was the preferred model for
both domains.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...With the latest frontal system through and VFR conditions
expected to prevail through early afternoon...focus shifts to
next system coming through later this afternoon/evening. This
very compact low tracking over the Kenai Peninsula and not far to
the west of PANC will bring a burst of moderate to heavy rain
with MVFR to IFR conditions in the late afternoon or early evening
before pushing strong east to southeast winds out of Turnagain
Arm. Uncertainty in the precise track of the low leads to
uncertainty in the timing and strength of the winds (and whether
they will surface or be strong shear) but it is a system that
bears close watching.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A freezing rain advisory is in effect for the Copper River Basin.
Lingering warmer air aloft promotes rain freezing on surfaces
that have been in the upper teens to lower 20s overnight.

Light to moderate rain will fall over much of the area today
followed by a short burst of gusty winds. A stalled out frontal
boundary over the north Gulf coast spawns a new low pressure
system, as a shortwave trough rides the front from east to west.
This low brings a gale-force front into Prince William Sound this
morning. While a deformation band forms as the system backs into
the Chugach, spreading precipitation in the form of mostly rain
from the Matanuska Valley southward through the Kenai Peninsula.
There is a little concern that some areas will be below freezing
as rain begins, however, with such a deep above freezing
temperatures in place aloft, rain will bring temperatures up
above freezing pretty quickly.

This compact, yet dynamic system will bring some decent
precipitation rates in a short period of time. The upper
elevations of Anchorage/Eagle river could see snow mix down
briefly, roughly around 2000-3000 feet elevation. The better
chance for accumulating snow exists on the Kenai Peninsula, mainly
inland toward the Chugach where precipitation intensity will drag
cold air down toward the surface. Portions of the Sterling Highway
could see a quick accumulation of 1-3 inches of the heavy/wet
variety.

As the system passes into the Cook Inlet region, a tight pressure
gradient enhanced by pressure rises on the back side of the system
will bring winds up and over the Chugach with a few hours of
gusts into the 40s and 50s for upper elevations and 30s for lower
elevations, mainly in the Anchorage/Matanuska Valley areas.
Downslope warming will shoot temperatures up into the mid 40s for
these areas as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A weather front moving east to west across the area stalls over
the Kuskokwim Delta through early Friday, producing light
accumulating snow especially toward Bethel and possibly some areas
of blowing snow, but with only localized visibility reductions
expected.

A second front moves northwest along or just offshore by late
Friday bringing another round of light rain and snow, mainly
along the coast. However, there will also be the possibility of
overrunning light snow in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley Friday night
into early Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A nearly stationary weather front resides along and near the
170th longitude line for much of the next couple of days, and will
largely serve as the dividing line between snow to the west over
the Central Bering, and rain to the east. This keeps the
rain/snow probabilities on the high side through the next couple
of days across the Pribilofs. With the persistent northerly flow,
nearly continuous rain can be expected along the Bering side of
the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through the next few days,
occasionally mixing with or changing to snow as one heads east to
west across the island chain. Additionally, this front serves as
the primary focus for a thin line of northerly gale-force winds
through tonight, with the winds becoming stronger Friday into
Friday night along and west of the front over the Central Bering
as cold advection begins to increase, though the cold advection
will not be particularly strong. Toward the Western Aleutians, a
strong gale-force front will pivot across the region today into
tonight. High pressure will weaken this front and push it south of
the Aleutians by Friday. With the persistent northerly flow,
nearly continuous rain can be expected along the Bering side of
the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through the next few days,
occasionally mixing with or changing to snow as one heads east to
west across the island chain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
An unsettled weather pattern continues across the Gulf and
surrounding coast through the long term as the next low pressure
pressure system moves in from the North Pacific early Saturday.
This storm system will bring the strongest winds, and heaviest
precipitation during the weekend into the early part of next week.
The southern mainland will see a few showers move inland with
temperatures remaining above season normals. To the west across
the Bering/Aleutians...a showery pattern with northerly flow on
the backside of the low pressure system ensues this weekend. The
next front moves into the west Bering on Monday before moving
swiftly northeast, with a stronger system following a similar
track on Wednesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Freezing Rain Advisory...141.
MARINE...Storm Warning...119.
         Gale warning...125 129 170 172 177 178 179 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...DK