Small Craft Advisory 869, NWS Anchorage, AK

286 
FZAK51 PAFC 071240
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080115-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
MULTIPLE TROUGHS SWEEP EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
A 972 MB LOW 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK TONIGHT MOVES TO 180 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SITKINAK AT 975 MB TUE AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATES TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-080115-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ120-080115-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ121-080115-
RESURRECTION BAY-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-080115-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-080115-
PORT VALDEZ-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-080115-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-080115-
VALDEZ ARM-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-080115-
PASSAGE CANAL-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-080115-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-080115-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-080115-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ136-080115-
CHINIAK BAY-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-080115-
MARMOT BAY-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-080115-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-080115-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-080115-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-080115-
KACHEMAK BAY-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT 25 KT NEAR THE OUTER BAY. SEAS 2 FT
EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR THE OUTER BAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A large and powerful storm force trough is carving itself out over
the Northeast Pacific ocean south of mainland Alaska. Cold arctic
air continues to pour south from Eastern Siberia through the
Bering Sea which continues to fuel the strong North Pacific storm
track. Farther west, a powerful occluded low continues to deepen
near the southern tip of the Kamchatka Peninsula. Closer to Alaska,
the Middleton Island RADAR and satellite imagery are capturing a low
amplitude shortwave trough and its associated warm front moving into
Prince William Sound. This feature is being aided by quite a bit of
instability in the Gulf of Alaska, enough to support some isolated
thunderstorms near the Northern Gulf.
Snow has moved into Valdez and Thompson Pass with lighter snow
moving into the Copper Basin.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical models are in excellent agreement with the synoptic
pattern deep into next week. As usual, they are in lesser
agreement with smaller low amplitude wave disturbances which will
rotate north into the Gulf through the short term forecast. They
have largely converged on a solution with this first front moving
inland today, but there remains some discrepancy with respect to
precipitation distribution and amounts. Just based purely off
trends, it seems that areas like Thompson Pass will see quite a
bit more accumulating snow with rain and snow along the coast.
Moving inland, places downwind of the Chugach will see much less.
As a result, a blend of models was favored today with a trend
toward the GFS and ECMWF after today as a series of shortwaves
move north toward the Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A frontal band associated with a weakening low south of Seward
moving west across the Kenai peninsula, Anchorage Bowl, and
Matanuska Valley will bring showery conditions through this
morning. A second and more impressive frontal band extends north
across the central Gulf to over the southern Copper River Basin.
This band moves to western Cook Inlet and the western Susitna
Valley this evening. Snow is expected with this band over the
Copper River Basin, higher elevations along the north Gulf coast,
and west of the Chugach mountains. Lower elevations along the Gulf
and Kenai Peninsula will see rain or a mix of rain and snow. Another
frontal wave moves north across the Gulf of Alaska Monday bringing
another round of precipitation for the Gulf coast. Temperatures look
to be warmer, so expected a trend toward rain.

A frontal band moving north in the Gulf today and Sunday will
spread gales north across the marine areas with a few storms in
the offshore Gulf waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Low stratus and flurries will continue to fall over the
Kuskokwim River Valley/Delta into this evening as a weak upper
level trough remains overhead. The snowfall will be very similar
to yesterday with most areas receiving little (if any)
accumulation. Patchy fog has also developed overnight throughout
the southwest Mainland, especially over Bristol Bay where the most
clearing occurred yesterday evening. The flurries and stratus will
then begin to dissipate this evening in advance of a wave that
will move into the area from the Gulf. This wave looks to
primarily bring accumulating snow to Bristol Bay east of King
Salmon where an inch or two of accumulation is possible on
Monday. This will be a quick shot of snow as ridging will quickly
move in by the evening, bringing an end to the snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Northerly gale force winds and rain showers currently over the
Bering will quickly switch over to southerly today as a gale force
front begins to move through the Aleutians. This front will begin
to enter the western Aleutians by late this afternoon with gale
force winds and rain. This system will then spread into the
central Aleutians and Pribilof Islands by Monday morning before
beginning to weaken over the eastern Aleutians/AK Pen Monday
evening. Northerly gale force winds and showers will then return
to the western Aleutians immediately behind the low and continue
into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

For the most part, expect showers along the coast with
middle and high level clouds streaming over the mountains.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal for this time of year.
The extended forecast begins Monday afternoon with yet another
stacked low pressure system in the Gulf. The front associated with
the system will stretch northward, curving along the north Gulf
coast, bringing areas of light rain to the area. The system will
continue to spin in place and weaken, bringing mainly scattered
showers to the area through Tuesday. As the system gets nudged
toward the mainland by a new Gulf low taking its place, the
threat for rain moves inland, but will be brief on Wednesday. The
front with the new developing system will be storm force and move
across the north Gulf coast and inland late Wednesday into Thursday,
but will be characterized by deep layer east to southeast flow. The
result being little if any precipitation will make it over the
Chugach. That system remains and fills in the Gulf through next
weekend. Outside of coastal locations, the best chance for rain with
this system will be when it gets shoved inland by the following
disturbance, but the details have yet to be resolved.

Out west, a low in the Bering Sea slides southward into the
Pacific, leaving much of the Bering in a showery northerly flow
with ocean effect showers.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 130 131 132 137 138 139 150 155 170
		 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 411 412 413 414.
		 Storm Warning 185 351 352.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...MTL