Small Craft Advisory 862, NWS Anchorage, AK

136 
FZAK51 PAFC 051147
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060045-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL WEAKEN THIS
MORNING. A FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT
AND MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF SUN.

$$

PKZ119-060045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ120-060045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ121-060045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-060045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-060045-
PORT VALDEZ-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-060045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO
10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS
AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-060045-
VALDEZ ARM-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-060045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER THIS MORNING. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-060045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-060045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ132-060045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ136-060045-
CHINIAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-060045-
MARMOT BAY-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-060045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-060045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ140-060045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-060045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

There has been little change in the upper air pattern over the
past few days, at least on the large scale, as a broad North
Pacific jet stream stretches from west of the Kamchatka Peninsula
to the Southeast Alaska Panhandle. A strong storm force low is
deepening southwest of Haida Gwaii along the left exit of the
cyclonically curved jet streak. Farther west, a shortwave trough
is moving along the jet south of the far Western Aleutian chain.
Over the Bering, a broad complex of smaller mesoscale lows exists,
with two well defined meso-lows on satellite, one west of the
Pribilofs Islands and another near Bristol Bay. A weakening low
is moving inland and rapidly falling apart near the ALCAN, but
this was enough to slacken the stronger offshore pressure gradient
from yesterday.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The same challenges remain from yesterday with less than desirable
model agreement with the weak troughing expected to move through
Southern Alaska Saturday and Saturday night...as well as the
moisture transport from another low moving east of the ALCAN. With
that said, there is a much better signal than yesterday that at
least light snow and flurries will develop over much of
Southcentral Saturday, with the best chances for light
accumulations in the Susitna Valley and toward the Talkeetna
Mountains. Otherwise, the numerical models are in excellent
agreement with the general synoptic pattern heading into the
middle of next week as the main challenges remain more subtle
details. The preferred models remain a blend of all model
solutions with a touch of pattern recognition and trends thrown
in.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...There is a chance that patchy fog from Turnagain Arm will
reach PANC this morning, however confidence is relatively low in
this. Otherwise....VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Broad cyclonic flow aloft with numerous waves moving across the Gulf
and Southcentral Alaska continues through Saturday. The more
significant of the upper waves moves across the northern Gulf and
Southcentral late Friday through Saturday. The interaction of this
wave with a diffuse area of surface low pressure over the northern
Gulf will combine to bring increased chances of light snow/snow
showers across Southcentral (mainly west of the Copper River Basin)
with a mix along the coast. Weak upslope conditions over the Susitna
Valley and higher elevations of the Matanuska Valley will bring
minor snow accumulations Saturday while little accumulation is
expected elsewhere. Snow should taper off across most inland areas
Saturday night. A strong weather front moving to the Southern Gulf
of Alaska Saturday night will bring brisk easterly winds and rain to
Kodiak.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Most of the weather through Saturday will be centered around a
weak eastern Bering low that is moving towards Bristol Bay. This
low has trended stronger than initially thought, and is now
expected to bring widespread rain to the Bristol Bay coast
from late this afternoon into the overnight. This may even mix
with wet snow at times as you move inland, however this is
expected to be fairly brief with no accumulation expected.
Otherwise skies will remain generally cloudy for the rest of the
area as broad cyclonic flow aloft continues to bring moisture into
the area, however with no precipitation expected. There is a
slight chance of some patchy fog/stratus developing in low lying
areas tonight as the low weakens, however with weak subsidence
expected this shouldn't be widespread or dense. Skies will then
being to clear on Saturday as weak ridging begins to move into the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A bit of a pattern change is in store for the central-eastern
Bering starting this evening. This will occur as a North Pacific
low currently approaching the western Aleutians begins to absorb
the complex of lows that have circulated throughout the Bering
this week. As this occurs, gale force northerly flow and
widespread cold air advection showers will develop throughout the
Bering Sea region by Saturday afternoon. This pattern will be
relatively short lived however, as another North Pacific low will
begin rapidly moving into the Bering for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The Bering/Aleutians remain under the influence of a broad
vertically stacked low before phasing in with a closed low just
south of the Eastern Aleutians this weekend. Upstream, a ridge
moves into the Bering briefly before a storm force low tracks into
the Western Aleutians by Sunday evening. This system tracks along
the Chain before exiting into the North Pacific Ocean by Tuesday.
This coincides with the strong 190 knot zonal jet streak located
just south of the Western Aleutians. This jet core digs into the
base of the longwave trough, and continues to push storm tracks
along the Chain before entering the North Pacific Ocean through
Wednesday. Therefore, look for a showery weather regime for the
aforementioned regions.

Meanwhile, the Southcentral region remains under drier conditions
with high pressure in the interior. By Sunday a broad area of low
pressure develops in the Gulf. This brings gale to storm force
southeasterly to easterly winds to the northern Gulf by Sunday
evening through Monday before diminishing Tuesday morning. The
next storm force system tracks near 49N 156W by Wednesday morning.
The associated weather front enters the lower Gulf by late
Wednesday morning accompanied by gale to storm force southeasterly
winds. This synoptic feature moves to the northern Gulf by
Wednesday evening accompanied by widespread rain/stratus with
warmer temperatures. The bulk of the precipitation will remain
along the northern Gulf coastal communities.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...PD