Small Craft Advisory 853, NWS Anchorage, AK

878 
FZAK52 PAFC 022356
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-031245-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 MB LOW 475 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 75 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND AT 989 MB BY FRI AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA AT 970 MB
FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-031245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ155-031245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-031245-
BRISTOL BAY-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-031245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-031245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ171-031245-
UNALASKA BAY-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-031245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ173-031245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-031245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ175-031245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ176-031245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ177-031245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ178-031245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT.

$$

PKZ179-031245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ180-031245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-031245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ185-031245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
356 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

666 
FZAK52 PAFC 031142
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040100-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 979 MB LOW 375 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND MOVES TO 175 NM
NORTH OF ATKA AT 989 MB LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 50 NM NORTH
OF AKUTAN AT 983 MB LATE FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER 982 MB LOW 150 NM
NORTHWEST OF COLD BAY MOVES TO 50 NM SOUTH OF CAPE NEWENHAM AT
989 MB LATE TONIGHT...THEN IS ABSORBED BY THE FIRST LOW.

$$

PKZ150-040100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ155-040100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-040100-
BRISTOL BAY-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-040100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-040100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ171-040100-
UNALASKA BAY-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-040100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ173-040100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-040100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ175-040100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ176-040100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ177-040100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ178-040100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT.

$$

PKZ179-040100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ180-040100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-040100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ185-040100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
342 AM AKDT THU NOV 3 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
422 PM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An active jet stream is keeping the region active weatherwise
today. An upper level trough persists through the central Bering
south and east into the North Pacific just south of the Gulf of
Alaska. With an upper level high remaining in place over the
northern Alcan border region (and building west across northern
Alaska), a southeasterly jet streak continues to push moisture
over a pair of frontal boundaries from the Gulf of Alaska through
Southwest Alaska. The southern frontal boundary is the strongest
of the two features, and is producing fairly decent rainfall near
Iliamna late this morning into early afternoon.

Meanwhile, behind this front and extending west through the
remainder of the Bering region, a dynamic post-frontal environment
exists with alternating regions of warm and cold advection. With
such a high-energy dynamic pattern in place, the small-scale
systems are producing small areas of heavier rainfall rates as
they move quickly across the region. These areas will serve as the
main focus for the forecast for the next couple of days.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models all are in very good agreement with the synoptic
pattern. The main focus will be on the smaller-scale post-frontal
systems which will likely continue to overperform with regards to
rainfall rates with the current dynamic environment in place.
Over the southern mainland, the front will continue to sharpen as
it moves north tonight, ushering in a post-frontal (and more
unstable) environment.

The main challenge for this forecast package will be adding
emphasis (especially within the POP/QPF and wind/gusts grids) to
the smaller-scale systems that tend to be underestimated by
models within the larger-scale post-frontal environment in place.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday afternoon. However,
there is some uncertainty between 09z and 15z as a frontal system
moves through tonight. Models are trending more aggressive in
trying to bring a very brief period of rain or rain showers and
thus lower ceilings. It is still too early to say if there could
be an hour or two of MVFR ceilings at this point in time.
Turnagain Arm winds may also bend into the airport very briefly
with frontal passage, but this is also low confidence and is not
indicated in the current TAF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A frontal boundary remains draped across the northern Gulf of
Alaska but has been rapidly dissipating throughout the day. A
decent barrier jet developed from Middleton Island northward as
expected and will dissipate just before midnight as the front
continues to fall apart. Rainfall has been plentiful across the
eastern Kenai Peninsula with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.75
inches to 3 inches in upslope observation sites at higher elevations.
Rainfall is expected to linger through at least Wednesday morning
with rainfall amounts ranging from another quarter of an inch to
three quarters of an inch over Prince William Sound and the
eastern Kenai Peninsula. Otherwise, it has been quite dry for
interior locations as downsloping has been fairly dominant. That
will likely change for a brief period (08-12Z) tonight/tomorrow
morning as the front tries to push over parts of Southcentral
Alaska and downsloping weakens. Rainfall amounts will likely be
less than 0.05 inches but could create some slick roads again
across Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley as seen the past several
mornings. For Thursday into Friday, a showery regime sets up as a
longwave trough encompasses much of the mainland and extends into
the North Pacific. The majority of the showers will be observed
across the northern gulf coast as moisture upslopes along the
coastal mountains while the interior once again looks dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Broad complex low over the Bering will continue to bring cloudy
skies and weak offshore flow to the southwest Mainland through the
work week. A frontal system associated with this will bring
continued widespread rain northern Bristol Bay this evening. To
the south along the Bristol Bay coast, clearing behind the rain
may cause for development of patchy fog/stratus overnight as
skies begin to clear. Subsidence however will be relatively weak
overnight, which should prevent any development from becoming too
extensive. A weak wave will then develop behind the front on
Wednesday, spreading rain from western Bristol Bay into the
Kuskokwim Delta that should continue into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A broad low complex centered over the northern Bering will
continue to bring clouds and showers throughout the Bering into
late this week. To the east of this low, a weak wave will continue
bringing rain from the Pribilof Islands southeastward into the AK
pen, where it will continue through Wednesday with otherwise light
winds. On the other side of the low, strong cold air advection
over the western Bering/Aleutians will bring widespread gale force
winds with rain showers into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The Bering Sea, and the Aleutians remain under a showery weather
regime as a gale force low tracks into the central Bering Eastern
by Thursday. This system weakens before phasing in with another
low pressure system which tracks into the Western Aleutians by
Friday. By Sunday the storm track takes this synoptic feature in
the North Pacific Ocean as it evolves into a complex low south of
the Eastern Aleutians. The Bering will have a brief break before
the next gale force low, and associated weather front enters the
Western Aleutian/Bering by Monday morning. This brings widespread
rain/stratus with gale force winds to the aforementioned region.
Meanwhile, the Southcentral region continues with drier conditions
with high pressure in the interior, and weak onshore flow
accompanied by warmer temperatures through upcoming weekend. By
Sunday evening a storm force low develops just east of Kodiak
Island. This brings storm force southeasterly to easterly winds to
the northern Gulf heading into Monday morning. Look for widespread
rain to occur mainly along the northern Gulf, and the coastal
communities.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...GALE...119 170 177 178 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...PD