Small Craft Advisory 852, NWS Anchorage, AK

799 
FZAK52 PAFC 021115
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-030000-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 972 MB LOW 210 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 160
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AT 992 MB LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-030000-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ155-030000-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT W 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SW 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ160-030000-
BRISTOL BAY-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-030000-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-030000-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-030000-
UNALASKA BAY-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-030000-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ173-030000-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-030000-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ175-030000-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ176-030000-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ177-030000-
ADAK TO KISKA-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ178-030000-
KISKA TO ATTU-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ179-030000-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-030000-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-030000-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-030000-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
315 AM AKDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 20 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 AM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Upper Levels...Little has changed since yesterday. The vertically
stacked low over the Bering and the upper level high over
northeast Alaska remain the two dominant upper level features
influencing the weather over southern Alaska. A persistent
southeasterly jet streak remains between the two features over
much of mainland Alaska. Finally, a hyperactive near 190 kt jet
streak remains zonally oriented just south of the western and
central Aleutians. The jet is keeping any new storms that form
south of the Aleutians and moving out into the northeast Pacific.

Southcentral...The Copper River basin remains the place to be for
any star-gazers this morning with clear skies and temperatures
near or just below 20 degrees this morning. Further west, closer
proximity to the upper jet and a persistent southeasterly fetch
off the Gulf are keeping cloud cover far more prevalent for most
of the area. Rainfall continues in the normally wet upslope areas
of western Prince William Sound and the southern Kenai. Meanwhile
from Anchorage and points north, downsloping off the Chugach is
keeping conditions dry with temps near the freezing mark. Sub-
freezing ground temperatures have been causing some black ice
concerns on less- traveled surfaces, even with air temperatures
staying a few degrees above freezing. Once again, Anchorage's
sounding shows well-above freezing air from sea level up to 4,000
feet, except for a shallow inversion just of the surface. Thus, any
precipitation stays in the form of rain due to the warm column of
air.

Southwest...A narrow band of rain persists this morning between
points from northeast of Iliamna to King Salmon. This is from the
same front plaguing some areas of Southcentral. Temperatures are
in the mid to upper 30s, which is notably colder than 24 hours
ago, but the warm air in the lower atmosphere is also keeping all
expectations of precipitation as rain.

Bering...The low dominating the Bering weather pattern has moved
to near Saint Matthew Island this morning. Instability associated
with it has decreased somewhat as evidenced by the lack of cells
generating lightning anywhere in the Bering. Another low racing
with the jet, is currently moving through the western and central
Aleutians. Fortunately, most of the strongest winds associated
with it are staying south of the low, so impacts from its rapid
passage across the Aleutians today should be minimal.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models all are in very good agreement with the synoptic
pattern. The GFS, being the middle ground between the other model
solutions with regards to the low placement late tomorrow night,
made it the model of choice for this forecast package. The GFS has
also been the most consistent model from run-to-run. The
mesoscale models were used for local effects with limited
differences noted between the mesoscale and global models. With
the general weather pattern precluding the expectation of any
noteworthy weather through the short-term, areas of uncertainty
were minimal. As such, forecast confidence is very high.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday morning. A few
showers are expected to be in the vicinity tonight as a strong
shortwave moves the front along the Kenai northward. Winds will
generally be out of the north under 10 knots through late tonight.
Southeasterly flow off the surface is expected to remain low
impact with the low level jet orientated along Turnagain Arm. The
stronger jet orientation should stay south of the terminal, however
amendments may be needed if there is a shift further north.
Surface flow becomes light and variable by early Wednesday with
the low level jet diminishing behind the frontal passage.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The front in the Gulf of Alaska has become more east-west
oriented which is bringing a good areas of Gale force winds to the
north Gulf coast. This front will slowly lift northward over the
next day and then finally move north of the Alaska Range by
Wednesday morning.
Rainfall over the southern part of the Kenai Peninsula will
persist through the morning and then become a little lighter in
the afternoon as the front pushes northward and weakens.
Temperatures will begin to slowly cool after the front moves
through the area but remain above normal the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
As the low over the northeastern Bering pushes off to the west
winds over southwest Alaska will diminish but remain southeasterly
through Wednesday. The rain will also diminish but continue
through Wednesday, mainly on the windward side of the mountains.
However, it will mostly change to snow overnight tonight and then
back to mostly rain on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
With the main low over the northern Bering westerly flow will
dominate the rest of the Bering and the Aleutians through
Wednesday. This pattern will keep showers over the area as well
with most places seeing rain. The exception is the Western
Aleutians that are cold enough to see snow showers.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The upper levels continue to keep a broad closed low in the
central/northern Bering through Friday. This synoptic feature
results in several weak surface lows developing in the
through the rest of next week. The next strong storm force system
moves up from the North Pacific into the Western Aleutians by
Friday afternoon. This system tracks parallel along the chain as
it moves eastward before being located just south of the Shumagin
Islands by Sunday. Therefore, the Aleutians and the lower Bering
Sea will receive gale force southeasterly to easterly winds as
this feature moves along the Aleutian Chain. While the
Southcentral region continues with drier conditions with high
pressure in the interior, and weak onshore flow accompanied by
warmer temperatures through next weekend. The eastern Gulf
receives all the weather action as several lows track from the
North Pacific Ocean into the Southeast Panhandle starting by
Wednesday evening through next weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...GALES 119 185 411 412 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
AVIATION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...PD