Small Craft Advisory 836, NWS Anchorage, AK

255 
FZAK51 PAFC 251135
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-260030-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LAST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE EVENING. 
A 989 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 290 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK
CITY WED NIGHT AT 978 MB.

$$

PKZ119-260030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA IN THE MORNING. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-260030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-260030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S LESS THAN 10 KT BY AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-260030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-260030-
PORT VALDEZ-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-260030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-260030-
VALDEZ ARM-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-260030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER
EARLY...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-260030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ131-260030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY LATE MORNING.
GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS EARLY. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-260030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ136-260030-
CHINIAK BAY-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-260030-
MARMOT BAY-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-260030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-260030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-260030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-260030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
335 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

217 
FZAK51 PAFC 252348
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261230-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. A 991
MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 140 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK ISLAND
AT 977 MB WED AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SITKINAK ISLAND AT 983 MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-261230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-261230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-261230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-261230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-261230-
PORT VALDEZ-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-261230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-261230-
VALDEZ ARM-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-261230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-261230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-261230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-261230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ136-261230-
CHINIAK BAY-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-261230-
MARMOT BAY-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ138-261230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-261230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-261230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-261230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
348 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 AM AKDT MON OCT 24 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A weakening area of low pressure over Siberia pushed a front
across the Bering Sea on Sunday. As of this morning, the front has
stalled out over the Alaska Peninsula and is rapidly falling apart
as it has moved far away from the parent low. As this front
dissipates this morning, all eyes will turn back to the western
Bering Sea where an area of low pressure is rapidly intensifying
just to the south and west of Shemya. Looking at model derived
pressure fields, this low pressure system formed near 47N 165E at
987 mb and will strengthen to 960 mb by late this morning. This
constitutes something known as rapid cyclogenesis (aka bombogenesis)
where a low deepens 24 mb within a 24 hour period. Scatterometer
data has shown winds increasing around the low pressure system as
the pressure gradient continues to compact. The eastern half of
the Bering Sea and the Alaskan mainland remains under high
pressure which has brought a period of calmer weather outside of
the Alaska Peninsula which is still seeing a little bit of rain
and gusty winds from the dissipating frontal boundary. Outflow
winds over Southcentral Alaska have also been weakening as the
pressure gradient between the Gulf of Alaska and the mainland
continues to gradually weaken.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in really good agreement with a rapidly developing area
of low pressure currently just to the south and west of Shemya as
it evolves and moves into the Bering Sea. One decent change from
the numerical guidance 24 hours ago has been observed this morning
as they no longer suggest a frontal wave forming over the central
Aleutians this morning. This could impact the wind speeds (a tad
weaker than initially forecasted) across the western and central
Aleutian Islands where our current high wind warning products are
issued. Otherwise, there is great agreement with a strong storm
force front pushing through the heart of the Bering Sea over the
next couple of days. With the models in good agreement, a blend of
high-res data was used for forecast updates this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Persistent northerly flow and tight surface pressure gradients
will continue to produce localized gap winds along Prince William
Sound and the north Gulf Coast through Tuesday morning. Winds
will then quickly die down as the ridge moves overhead during the
day Tuesday. The ridge will continue to slide eastward Tuesday
Night, allowing a weakening front from the Bering Sea to approach
the Western Gulf. This will bring rain to Kodiak Island and
increasing mid to high clouds farther north and east. The shift
to southerly flow will also bring moderating temperatures for
most places, though mostly clear skies will keep the Copper River
Basin on the chilly side.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Low pressure across the Bering slowly erodes ridging across
Southwest through Tuesday. The surface front that pushed to the
coast overnight stalls today with southwesterly flow just off the
surface pushing a warmer Pacific air mass inland. Increased snow
and rain showers are possible, mainly along the coast, as a
strong shortwave slams into the western periphery of the mainland
ridge. The air mass is dry through the column, therefore, no
accumulations are expected today.

A pattern shift begins tonight as a strong organized storm system
swings a front to the southwest coast tonight. A warm front
pushes into the west coast by Tuesday morning bringing rain to the
coast and then spreads inland during the afternoon. Strong gusty
southerly winds develop this evening across coastal areas of the
Kuskokwim as the pressure gradient tightens between low pressure
approaching from the Bering and high pressure inland. Gusty
conditions continue through much of Tuesday then taper down behind
the front. The Coastal Flood Watch for the Kuskokwim Delta issued
on Sunday was continued with this morning's package. Adjustments
were made to decrease the flood levels since winds are expected
to stay south versus southwest, which keep impacts lower at this
direction. Temperatures increase above freezing with the front
bringing precipitation mostly in the form of rain. However, light
snow accumulations are expected across the eastern areas of
Kuskokwim Valley and Aleutian Range Tuesday night as the front
moves faster off the surface, not mixing warmer temperatures down
until Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An unsettled pattern is underway across the Bering as a parent
low center shifts across the western waters to Kamchatka. An
associated surface low rapidly occludes and deepens to 950 mb as
it tracks across the western Bering this afternoon. High winds are
expected to impact the Central and Western Aleutians this morning
through late evening, with only minor adjustments made on timing
and wind speeds for the warning products that were previously
issued. Hurricane force winds will develop around the marines
surrounding these islands and storm force winds with hurricane
force gusts are expected to be widespread today across the rest of
the Bering. Instability increases behind the fropa as colder air
advects in from the west. Isolated thunderstorms were added for
this evening through tonight for the western Bering and Aleutians
as a strong embedded wave is forced around by the parent low. A
cooler unstable pattern continues to bring showers on Tuesday
along with westerly flow behind the strong front.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A persistent and amplified trough over the Bering will continue
into late in the work week. This pattern will bring a series of
gale-storm force lows throughout the Bering and southwest
Mainland, bringing widespread rain and gusty southerly winds.
Depending on the exact track and strength of these lows and
associated fronts, there will also be the potential for coastal
erosion/high surf issues to south exposures of the Southwest coast
(such as Kuskokwim Bay). This will need to be monitored over the
coming days for more details regarding timing and strength, but it
certainly looks like an active week ahead for the Bering Sea
region.

To the east of the Alaska Range, a blocking ridge will prevent
the active weather over the Bering from moving into Southcentral
or the northern Gulf. This will keep generally sunny and benign
weather over the region with daytime highs slightly above normal.
By late next week there is good agreement that this blocking
ridge will shift eastward, allowing for more active weather to
move into the Gulf and south Mainland. This trend will then
continue into early next week with no sign of a return to the ridging
and sunny weather that the south Mainland is currently enjoying.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High wind warning...187 191.
		 Coastal flood watch...155.
MARINE...Storm...170 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 181 185.
		 Gale...127 165 171 172 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...mc
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...seb
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...kh
LONG TERM...dek