Small Craft Advisory 769, NWS Anchorage, AK

346 
FZAK52 PAFC 292329
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-301230-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A WEATHER FRONT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN BERING BY 
THU NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE REGION. A 988 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF
ADAK THU AFTERNOON MOVES 100 NM EAST OF ATKA AT 987 MB FRI
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM MOVES 210 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND AT 978 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-301230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO
20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-301230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT EXCEPT SE 25 KT FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 9 FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-301230-
BRISTOL BAY-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-301230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT SE 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. FROM PORT MOLLER
E...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-301230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-301230-
UNALASKA BAY-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-301230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-301230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO
19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-301230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-301230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E WIND 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ176-301230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-301230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT W
OF AMCHITKA PASS. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-301230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-301230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-301230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-301230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-301230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
329 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 40 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A flat upper level ridge over the northeast Pacific is nudging
into the southeast Bering Sea. An upper level front is over Southcentral
Alaska and moving rapidly east. There is a "cut off" upper level
low south of the central Aleutians that is in the process of
incorporating into the northern stream and moving north. There is
a deep upper low centered near the Kamchatka Peninsula. A strong
trough associated with this low is located to the southwest of the
western Aleutians and moving rapidly east.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in fairly good agreement through the
short term (Friday afternoon). There remain some differences with
a low that moves into the Aleutians Thursday night and Friday. The
NAM is the fastest to bring this into the Bering, while the ECMWF
is the slowest. The preferred solution was the GFS and GEM, which
are in between the NAM and ECMWF. Forecast confidence is near
normal today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level disturbance moves across the Alaska Range tonight
with a southward extension crossing the Gulf waters. This will
bring isolated chances for rain and snow along the mountains to
the north with passing clouds across the Kenai, Copper River and
Gulf. Dry conditions settle across all of Southcentral for
Thursday and Friday as a ridge builds from the North Pacific.
Offshore flow increases tonight as the ridge axis extends north
across Bristol Bay. Gusty conditions through gaps are expected to
develop across Seward and Whittier this evening and then across
outflow areas of the northeastern gulf coast after midnight. Winds
taper off on Friday as the ridge center shifts over the Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The frontal boundary crossing the mainland will cross the Alaska
Range tonight, as upper level ridging builds in behind it. Inland
area will clear out but some cloud cover will be increasing along
the Alaska Peninsula as well as the Kuskokwim Delta where moisture
advection will promote stratus/patchy fog. Thursday night and
Friday morning winds will increase along the coast ahead of an
approaching front/developing low pressure system. The front will
impact the coast late Friday bringing rain and strong/gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Several frontal boundaries and low pressure systems will converge
over the Central Aleutians late tonight and Thursday. The current
front over the Western Aleutians will slowly progress eastward
along with areas of fog as a new low center develops to the south.
A separate front will affect the Central Aleutians/Pribilofs/Unalaska
tonight and tomorrow. As the low pressure system crosses the Chain
into the Bering on Friday, winds will really ramp up to gale
force, even storm force plus through channeled terrain along the
Alaska Peninsula, accompanied by steady rain for much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Forecast thinking remains largely unchanged for the extended term
beginning Friday night as a Bering Sea front brings a return of
precipitation to the Southwest mainland, while a high amplitude
ridge continues to yield clear skies across Southcentral AK. Model
agreement is slightly improved today regarding the evolution of
the system moving through the Bering late in the week and how that
ultimately impacts the mainland ridge. The front is still expected
to enter the southwest Gulf of AK and then be shunted towards the
southeast by a developing North Pacific wave this weekend, with
high pressure weakening but still remaining in place over
Southcentral AK as the ridge begins to break down. This lends
increasing confidence that the majority of Southcentral AK will
stay mostly dry well into next week, with outflow winds and
freezing overnight low temperatures remaining the primary forecast
concerns. Meanwhile, the Bering will remain in a much more active
pattern as various waves continue to rotate around the the
periphery of the deep Siberian low, with a weak disturbance on
Sunday followed by potentially stronger systems on Monday and
again towards the middle of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 165 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 179 181 185 411 412
413 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...CB