Small Craft Advisory 759, NWS Anchorage, AK

157 
FZAK51 PAFC 242347
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251230-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH 
SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ119-251230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. ALONG THE COAST...E WIND TO 20 KT IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-251230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-251230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-251230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-251230-
PORT VALDEZ-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-251230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-251230-
VALDEZ ARM-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-251230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-251230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-251230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-251230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-251230-
CHINIAK BAY-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-251230-
MARMOT BAY-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-251230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-251230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-251230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-251230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
347 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper-level longwave trough remains over Alaska this
afternoon, with the main center of rotation weakening after
moving inland this morning north of Bristol Bay. Cold air
from eastern Siberia is wrapping around the base of the trough
over the Bering Sea and up into the Gulf of Alaska. As this cold
air flows over the relatively warm water, instability is building.
This is allowing for convective showers and some isolated
thunderstorms over the Bering Sea, Bristol Bay, and the Gulf of
Alaska. The eastern Prince William Sound area is seeing the bulk
of the thunderstorms, as the coastal mountains provide additional
lift to the already moist and unstable air coming off of the Gulf.
Some convective showers are popping up over the Cook Inlet region, forming
as a result of localized convergence along the unstable warm
waters of the Inlet.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to be in good agreement synoptically through the
short term bringing high pressure into the mainland through
Sunday. The main challenge continues to be the amount of
instability that the cold air advection will generate. Higher
resolutions models were used in the forecast package for their
better handle on the timing and placement of showers associated
with this building instability.

&&

.AVIATION...PANC has a convergence zone that developed mid
afternoon today with SE winds out of Turnagain Arm converging with
SW winds moving up the Inlet. This is providing extra lift for
the development of showers near the airport. These should diminish
as the evening progresses and the winds become lighter. Tomorrow
looks similar to today with some instability that will kick off a
few showers around the airport in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The track will be on repeat for the next couple days across the
area. A slowly propagating trough sits over western Alaska,
leaving our area in generally unstable southwesterly flow owing to
the -30C air aloft and climatologically maxed sea surface
temperatures. The hard part of the forecast is finding support for
the showers that will be around. Convergence along Cook Inlet will
continue to force showers that move into the Susitna Valley. Some
afternoon/evening showers will move off of the Chugach westward
from the Kenai Peninsula through Anchorage and the Matanuska
Valley. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue around
the north gulf coast for the next couple days.

The low pressure system over the Bristol Bay area will move over
the Kenai Peninsula Saturday, providing some focus for showers
while a lingering trough and upslope flow will do the same over
the north gulf coast. The large scale trough will move eastward on
Sunday, forcing more showers, as well as bringing in some colder,
very fall like air aloft. Winds through the forecast will be
generally light, and temperatures near normal for late September.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level longwave trough will persist over Southwest Alaska
through Sunday, as ridging begins to gradually build into the
Southwest Mainland providing a brief break from the ongoing
showery regime. As cooler air begins to filter into the Southwest
Mainland tonight, areas along the Bristol Bay coast and Alaska
Peninsula may see some isolated thunderstorms develop due to the
enhanced instability over the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A weakening surface low over the Southwest Mainland will continue
to weaken and track eastward over the Alaska range tonight. This
feature will keep showery conditions in broad cyclonic flow over
the eastern Bering/Aleutians through Saturday. The increased
instability along the Eastern Bering and Bristol Bay area will
shift southward over the AKpen and North Pacific side tonight.
this continues to hold the potential to fire off some small
isolated thunderstorms over these areas tonight. Meanwhile to the
West, a ridge builds into the Western Aleutians/Bering heading
into Saturday. Therefore, look for slightly warmer temperatures
with the southwesterly flow developing into the Western
Aleutians/Bering with patchy fog in the aforementioned region by
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

It looks like much of the Alaska mainland will be heading into a
drier period over the weekend and into the middle of next week as
the upper level trough currently anchored across the state finally
displaces eastward. Weak ridging will develop over Southwest
Alaska Sunday afternoon but be short lived as an upper level low
drops south across the eastern Bering Sea and flattens out the
ridge. This will likely keep coastal locations of the Kuskokwim
Delta and Bristol Bay area under some light steady rain but inland
locations still should remain fairly dry. Stronger ridging will
build across the mainland Tuesday evening and overspread much of
the state by late Wednesday but a progressive shortwave trough
should push through Southwest and Southcentral Alaska on Thursday
and bring one quick shot of rain before another period of dry
weather settles in.

The Bering Sea will be rather active looking at the grand scheme
of things with a series of longwave troughs passing through the
region. Associated with these troughs will be a series of fronts
that will push through the Bering Sea. The first will be on
Tuesday and the second on Friday. The Friday front looks quite
impressive albeit seven days out. A merger of the arctic jet
stream and a branch of the subtropical jet over eastern Russia
will allow for a strong low to develop over Kamchatka with the
associated front moving into the Bering Sea on Friday. Currently
25 to 30 kt winds are advertised in the forecast due to large
temporal discrepancies amongst guidance. However, winds
approaching 40 to 45 kt will be possible depending on the strength
of the upper level support and timing of a jet streak.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory 145.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...MC