Small Craft Advisory 732, NWS Anchorage, AK

770 
FZAK51 PAFC 151148
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160045-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE NORTH
GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING AND TO THE NORTH GULF COAST FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-160045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-160045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-160045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-160045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-160045-
PORT VALDEZ-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-160045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-160045-
VALDEZ ARM-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-160045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-160045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-160045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-160045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-160045-
CHINIAK BAY-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-160045-
MARMOT BAY-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-160045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-160045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 15 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-160045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-160045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
348 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The remnants of the weak low centered near Prince William Sound
are in the process of dissipating as the trough along the
northern Gulf weakens and shifts inland. A ridge of high pressure
stretching across Southwest Alaska and into the Gulf is shifting
east as a large low in the central Aleutians and associated
frontal system across the Alaska Peninsula also push east.
Multiple wraps of the occlusion around the mature parent low cover
the Aleutians, portions of the North Pacific and much of the
Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
In the short term, model agreement remains good through around
Friday. There are some small disagreements with regards to where
and how many small low centers form as the low tracks east along
the Aleutians and opens to a trough across Bristol Bay and the
Alaska Peninsula. All the models however do keep the trough axis
aligned in nearly the same location, keeping net differences in
the resulting weather small. A Canadian/EC blend was preferred for
the western domain while the NAM's better resolution of the
barrier jet was preferred for the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Southeast winds are expected to develop at PANC by 18z as
the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a front approaching the
gulf coast, with winds becoming increasingly gusty during the
afternoon as the front moves inland. Winds should then become light
and northerly during the evening as down inlet flow increases and
shifts the southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds away from the
airport. The arrival of the front will also bring the chance for
rain showers beginning in the afternoon and lasting into Thursday
morning, however VFR conditions are expected to persist throughout
the TAF period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The next front is moving into Southcentral Alaska today and will
bring in more rain to the coastal areas. This system looks like it
will bring a good bit of downslope to the leeward side of the
mountain ranges and without a sufficiently deep amount of moisture
connection with this system it looks like the areas just to the
lee side of the mountains will not see much if any rain today.
However, by tonight the upper level support will intensify and the
moisture will become deeper causing rain to make it into these
areas as well. Expect gusty southeast winds through the usual gaps
such as Turnagain Arm and along the Copper River.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Wed and Thu)...
A warm occluded front associated with the broad surface low is
moving from the Eastern Bering towards Bristol Bay this morning.
East to southeast winds have started to increase in response to
this front. This dry flow has kept any fog or low clouds from
forming overnight. Light rain is just starting to show up on the
King Salmon radar. As the low itself tracks slowly eastward, it
will push the front from southwest to northeast. This will allow
steady rain to move from Bristol Bay this morning to the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley by late this afternoon. After the initial front
moves through, some colder air aloft will start to spill in to the
area. This should transition the precipitation to a much more
showery regime and there could even be some isolated thunderstorms
near the Alaska Peninsula. Showers will continue across the area
on Thu as the upper level low moves directly over the region. Some
colder air starts to work its way in at the surface by Fri.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Wed and
Thu)...
The story remains much the same as the past 24 hours. A sprawling
nearly vertically-stacked low over the Central Aleutians continues
to make slow eastward progress. There is a fairly wide band of
gale-force winds that extend from the Pribilof Islands north to
St Matthew and then west. These will persist until Thu afternoon.
The best chance for steady rain continues to be east of the low,
especially on the Pacific-facing side of the islands. West of the
low, precipitation will become much more showery on Thu as the
flow switches out of the north.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The models continue depicting a broad area of low pressure
tracking over the Eastern Aleutians near Unalaska by Thursday.
This synoptic feature eventually moves into the northern Gulf by
Sunday, and remains stationary through Monday. Look for the bulk
of the showery precipitation associated with this system to
remain along the northern Gulf coastal communities. Meanwhile,
the Bering/Aleutians will be influenced by northeasterly winds
before transitioning to northwesterly winds by Friday as this
synoptic system moves into the Southwest/Alaska Peninsula region.
As we head into the weekend, this low pressure system tracks into
the Gulf. Meanwhile, the models struggle with next North Pacific
Low as it drops from the Kamchatka Peninsula before tracking into
the Western Aleutians by Saturday. The GFS model was more
progressive with a faster storm track/strength, and the WPC
preferred model was the ECMWF Ensemble Mean which has a slower
storm track for this system. Overall, look for above average
forecast confidence through rest of week before tapering-off to
below average with the aforementioned system as we head into the
weekend. The temperatures will remain near average for climatology
through the extended time-frame.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 176 181 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...PD