Small Craft Advisory 694, NWS Anchorage, AK

136 
FZAK52 PAFC 022328
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-031200-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A BROAD 993 MB LOW CENTERED 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE
TO 115 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND AT 999 MB BY SUN
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING
AND ALEUTIANS AND WILL MOVE TO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY SUN.

$$

PKZ150-031200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-031200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-031200-
BRISTOL BAY-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-031200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-031200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ171-031200-
UNALASKA BAY-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-031200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ173-031200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-031200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ175-031200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-031200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ177-031200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-031200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...9 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-031200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-031200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-031200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-031200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
328 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 25
KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The overall weather pattern that has produced the string of
beautiful sunny days over southern Alaska is still mostly in
place, but change is afoot. The high pressure over the Bering
Strait has continued to weaken and is also drifting westward into
Siberia. Nevertheless, a ridge axis over the western portion of
the state continues to produce dry and mostly sunny northerly flow
for most areas of the mainland. As expected, a shortwave is
dropping southward through the Copper River Basin today, and may
provide enough of a boost to the pre-existing instability to
result in a few showers mainly over the Wrangell mountains later
this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery confirms diurnal
convective clouds are already beginning to form in this area.
Elsewhere, the surface pressure gradients have relaxed enough
that light sea breezes are being observed along most of the
coastlines from Cook Inlet to Prince William Sound.

Out west, the large and nearly-stationary low pressure center
south of the western Aleutians is being re-invigorated by a 130+
knot jet streak. Surface pressure is still a relatively modest
990 mb, though, and the entire storm system will begin to weaken
by this afternoon as it begins a gradual movement to the
northeast. An old weather front is draped through the northern
Bering Sea to the Alaska Peninsula and on into the North Pacific.
However, winds along this front are struggling to even reach 20
knots at the surface. The main impact is clouds and some
persistent showers.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in very good overall agreement. This is not surprising
given the slow progression of major features across the area. The
models are struggling with exactly where the surface low centers
will be underneath the upper-level low center in the Bering over
the next few days, which is not terribly surprising. These
differences won't have too much impact on the forecast, though, as
winds in general will be pretty tame for this part of the world.
All models show this sprawling and slow-moving low gradually
moving toward the southwest mainland by the end of the
weekend...spreading showers and clouds across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will continue to promote sunny skies and
afternoon high temperatures approaching record values through
Friday ahead of a weak front set to enter the southwest Gulf of
Alaska on Friday night. In the meantime, the combination of clear
skies and relatively light surface winds will support optimal
conditions for radiational cooling and once again allow
temperatures to dip into the 30s tonight across the traditional
cold spots such as east Anchorage, with temperatures still
expected to remain above freezing area wide. Overnight lows should
rebound by Friday night as high clouds move into the region ahead
of the front entering the Gulf. The arrival of the front will
signal a change to a cooler and cloudier pattern for Southcentral
AK beginning this weekend as rain moves over Kodiak Island Friday
night and spreads to the Kenai Peninsula on Saturday. The
remainder of the area is expected to remain dry through Saturday
afternoon, although some rain could begin to impact the Anchorage
area by Saturday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level ridge over the Southwest Alaska region is slowly
shifting eastward, but will continue to produce dry conditions
with warm temperatures heading into the weekend. By Friday a
weather front will approach the Kuskokwim Delta, and the Bristol
Bay coastline by the afternoon. This synoptic feature elongates
bringing a swath of stratiform rain as it spreads inland through
the weekend. The associated stacked upper level low will have
multiple shortwaves rotating around the system, before swinging
through the Southwest Alaska region through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The North Pacific low located south of Shemya tracks across the
Western Aleutians by Saturday. The associated occluded weather
front will track through the Central Aleutians heading into Friday
morning. This front will push across the central/eastern Bering
heading into the weekend. Therefore, look for a swath of gusty
southerly to southeasterly winds out ahead the system with plenty
of moisture streaming from the North Pacific Ocean into the
central/eastern Bering Sea. The western Bering will be on the
backside of this system resulting in small craft advisory
northeasterly winds developing by Friday. This synoptic feature
will extend into the northern Bering by Saturday as the surface
low moves into the lower central Bering. As this system moves
across the western Aleutians the cold pool of air will combine
with warmer atmosphere to produce unstable conditions resulting in
isolated thunderstorms by Friday morning just south of the Rat
Islands. By Saturday morning the isolated thunderstorms will
track over Adak, and Atka region before moving into the lower
central Bering Sea by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The large upper level low over the Bering will continue to track
slowly east Sunday and Monday with broad troughing spreading
showery conditions into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska ahead
of it. The upper low center will reach Bristol Bay Monday Night
then phase with a trough to the north and track east across the
Alaska Peninsula and Gulf Tuesday continuing showery conditions
across much of the southern Mainland and Gulf Coast. This trough
will exit the area to the east...swinging through Southeast Alaska
Tuesday Night. A couple of additional small shortwaves will drop
down from the north through midweek and rotate through mainland
Alaska gradually filtering a cooler air mass into the area. A
deeper trough bringing in more substantial cold air aloft will
arrive towards the end of the week increasing the cooling trend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JR