Small Craft Advisory 693, NWS Anchorage, AK

335 
FZAK51 PAFC 012304
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021145-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL BE
REPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTING FRI NIGHT. A
WEAK WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN GULF SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-021145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-021145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-021145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-021145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-021145-
PORT VALDEZ-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-021145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-021145-
VALDEZ ARM-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-021145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-021145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-021145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-021145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-021145-
CHINIAK BAY-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-021145-
MARMOT BAY-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-021145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-021145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-021145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-021145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
304 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The most active feature on the map this morning is a deep mature
upper level low pressure system centered south of the Western
Aleutians. The sprawling system encompasses most of the Bering
Sea and stretches southward into the northern Pacific. A separate
upper low spins over the Panhandle while weaker cyclonic flow sits
over Southcentral Alaska. Between all these features is an upper
high centered over the Chukotsk Peninsula with an axis spreading
over the Southwest Mainland.

The front associated with the western system stretches from Shemya
eastward through the Pribilofs, and then the Alaska Peninsula. A
stronger wave embedded in the flow, but far removed from the
center of circulation, is butting up against the upper ridge
south of the Alaska Peninsula.

The Mainland is mostly clear except for a few high clouds over
the Copper River Basin. With clear sky and light winds, most
places are efficiently cooling this morning, dropping temperatures
into the upper 30s to low 40s in many locations.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
One feature models don't seem to have a good handle on is the
shortwave/triple point low in the northern Pacific. Satellite
appearance of the wave is a close circulation while all guidance
has a weak open wave. Given the ridge to the north it doesn't
look to have much of an impact on the Peninsula, however, it will
probably have an effect on low level winds/clouds from Dutch to
the Akpen.

Otherwise guidance is in lockstep with the development of the
pattern through the short term. The general consensus is the front
will stall out over the northern Bering Sea until Friday when the
cyclonic flow impinges on it again and invigorates it toward the
Mainland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will remain over south-central Alaska through
Friday night. Warm daytime temperatures will continue, with some
daily records likely to fall again through Friday. Night time
temperatures will be fairly cool, as diurnal temperatures swings
will be large due to the clear skies and light winds. On Friday
night a front approaching from the southwest will bring clouds and
some precipitation to Kodiak Island.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Dry conditions along with above normal high temperatures are
expected to persist through Friday for the Southwest as the
surface ridge slowly shifts east. A front currently along the
Western Alaska Peninsula slides slightly eastward through this
afternoon and diminishes this evening. The next front develops tonight
and pushes into the Alaska Peninsula on Friday, approaching the
southwest coast by late afternoon. The front will lose momentum
Friday evening as the boundary elongates as it begins to swing
north. Light rain will spread inland late Friday night as the
surface low driving the front moves across the Aleutians into the
southern Bering.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The front stretched along the western Alaska Peninsula to the
central Bering slowly pushes north and east today then diminishes
late this evening. A new low developing just south of the Central
Aleutians moves a front into the Aleutian Chain late this
afternoon. Rain and gusty small craft east to south winds are
expected to spread into the north and east Bering on Friday as the
low center moves closer to Adak. Winds become northerly across
the western Bering on Friday with the surface low lifting into the
southern Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Medium to extended range guidance continues to show good overall
agreement on a return to a more seasonally typical cool and
showery pattern for the southern Alaskan mainland by late this
week as the broad North Pacific/Aleutian low makes gradual
eastward progress. The chance for precipitation will return to the
region Friday evening as a front associated with the low moves
inland over the southwest mainland before approaching the gulf
coast late Saturday and moving inland over Southcentral AK on
Sunday. The arrival of the front will be accompanied by broad
onshore flow ahead of the approaching low, which will facilitate
the transition to a more cloudy and showery regime through the
middle of next week as the low opens up into a trough encompassing
much of the mainland. Over the Bering region, the departing low
will be replaced by weak flow aloft and at the surface, likely
yielding widespread stratus and fog.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...CB