Small Craft Advisory 691, NWS Anchorage, AK

665 
FZAK52 PAFC 011120
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020045-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A FRONT OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN BERING WEAKENS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN BERING THIS EVENING. A 992 MB LOW 370 NM SOUTH OF
KISKA ISLAND MOVES TO 65 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK AT 995 MB BY SAT
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SPREADS INTO THE NORTH AND EAST
BERING THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-020045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-020045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-020045-
BRISTOL BAY-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-020045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-020045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-020045-
UNALASKA BAY-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-020045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-020045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-020045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-020045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-020045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-020045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ178-020045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-020045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-020045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-020045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-020045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
320 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level pattern persists this morning with a blocking
ridge centered over the Bering Strait and low pressure centers
spinning over the eastern Gulf of Alaska and the western Bering.
Low pressure over the Bering has two embedded low centers, one
over the central Aleutians and a second core diving south from the
Kamchatka Peninsula. At the surface, winds are tapering down
across Southcentral as the pressure gradient relaxes with the
surface ridge shifting inland along the southwest coast. To the
west, an occluded front continues to slowly progress north and
east across the Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue in good synoptic agreement through Thursday;
therefore, only minor changes were made in the morning package
using the NAM. On Thursday, models begin to differ in strength
and track of the Bering low as it begins to track east. The GFS
was used for it's middle ground solution which slowly tracks the
surface low across the central Aleutians into the southern Bering
late Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the
next TAF package as ridging persists over the southern mainland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will remain over south central Alaska through
Thursday night. The flow aloft will gradually shift from northeast
to northwest as the high center retreats westward into northeast
Russia. Offshore winds in coastal areas will increase a bit today,
then slacken off again tonight. Warm daytime temperatures will
continue, with some daily records likely to fall again today and
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong upper level ridge will shift slightly eastward and begin
to slowly elongate over the Southwest Mainland through Thursday,
keeping warm and dry weather over the region. Weak inland winds
and continued stable conditions over the area will allow for the
development of more valley and lake fog during the overnight and
early morning hours through Friday, especially across interior
portions of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A North Pacific low and associated warm front will continue to
lift northward through much of the Aleutian chain and the
Western/Central Bering today. As the low reaches it's maximum
intensity, this system will spread rain and gusty southeast winds
across the entire Aleutian chain/Pribilof Islands by this
afternoon. The low will then weaken and occlude Thursday, with
periodic rain lingering over most of the Bering Sea. A new low
will develop off the aforementioned North Pacific low Thursday,
and track northward toward the Western Aleutians by Friday
morning. This will continue the wet and gusty conditions over
much of the Bering and Aleutian through the end of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

A little bit has changed in the extended forecast over the past
couple of models runs. The area of low pressure south of the
Central Aleutians will push a front through the southern Bering
Sea and northern Pacific on Friday. However, it's looking more
probable that a triple point low develops south of the Alaska
Peninsula Friday afternoon and should slow the momentum of the
front as it approaches the Alaska coastline. This has led to a 12
to 18 hour delay for when the frontal boundary was supposed to
begin moving inland. This will bring the first chances of rainfall
to Southwest Alaska Friday afternoon/evening instead of late
Thursday. This front, as expected before, will continue to push
eastward toward Southcentral Alaska and increase rain chances by
Sunday. The front will fall apart quickly once inland so it is
quite difficult to judge the likelihood of rainfall at this time.
It should be noted that as the upper level ridge continues to
erode that a return of some southwesterly flow aloft is likely.
However, it will not be nearly as steep as before therefor no
significant moisture plume is expected to advect northward toward
the state.

Models are still in overall remarkable agreement through early
next week with the main synoptic features but do struggle with a
few shortwaves in the arctic. Low pressure looks to encompass much
of the state by midweek next week with a showery regime returning
to the state. However, the extent and coverage of these showers
will depend greatly on an arctic trough that enters the state on
Tuesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...MC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1251 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

AKZ101-111-121-022100-
ANCHORAGE-MATANUSKA VALLEY-WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON...KENAI...
SOLDOTNA...HOMER...COOPER LANDING
1251 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

...NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AROUND SOUTHERN ALASKA EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. THIS INCLUDES THE BUTTE, EAST ANCHORAGE, MEADOW LAKES, AND
THE INTERIOR KENAI PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER PORTIONS
OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN HAVE ALREADY BEEN BELOW FREEZING THIS
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN AT RISK FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER NIGHTS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL
DOWN RAPIDLY EACH OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE NIGHTS UNTIL CLOUDS MOVE IN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND CAUSE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO RISE.

FARMERS AND GARDENERS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TEMPERATURES
AND MAY WISH TO TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS. THIS MAY
INCLUDE BRINGING PLANTS INDOORS FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.