Small Craft Advisory 689, NWS Anchorage, AK

848 
FZAK51 PAFC 311131
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010015-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN GULF INTO LATE THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-010015-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-010015-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-010015-
RESURRECTION BAY-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-010015-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-010015-
PORT VALDEZ-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS TO 25
KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-010015-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-010015-
VALDEZ ARM-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-010015-
PASSAGE CANAL-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-010015-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-010015-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-010015-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-010015-
CHINIAK BAY-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-010015-
MARMOT BAY-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-010015-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-010015-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-010015-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-010015-
KACHEMAK BAY-
331 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 AM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A blocking ridge pattern stretches across the Alaska Peninsula to
the Bering Strait. Bordering the ridge to the east is a closed low
spinning in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. To the west, a low is slowly
moving north toward the Central Aleutians. At the surface, dry
conditions and offshore flow prevail across the southern mainland.
The ridge across the east Bering is slowly edging into the
Southwest mainland this morning allowing winds to go light. Fog is
beginning to develop across the coastal areas of Bristol Bay as
the inversion steepens just off the surface. A front is bringing the
most active weather across the Central Aleutians early this
morning. The frontal boundary is currently stretching from Kiska
to Nikolski bringing gusty small craft winds and rain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Only minor changes were needed with the morning package as models
are in good synoptic agreement through Wednesday. There are a few
differences on the frontal progression on Thursday; all
operational models are hinting at a triple point low developing
south of the Alaska Peninsula. The NAM was the model of choice,
with use of the GFS transitioning into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and northerly flow prevail through the next
TAF package as surface ridging persists across the central mainland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Dry and sunny weather will continue for the next couple of days
over south central Alaska as the mean upper level ridge position
remains just west of the area. The flow aloft will remain northerly
and offshore winds will continue. High temperatures will cool a
a few degrees today at most locations, but remain well above
normal and even threaten some daily records. Winds in the
Matanuska valley will diminish today as the cold advection
weakens. Winds will increase through the Valdez area on Wednesday
as an upper level vort-max slides across the area early in the
day.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure stretching from the Eastern Bering into the
Southwest Mainland will continue to bring sunny and warm weather
to the area with weak offshore flow today. There will be some
patchy fog early this morning, especially from King Salmon
southward where calm winds have allowed fog/stratus from the
Bering sea to develop inland. There may also be some patchy fog
around the Kuskokwim River valley, but this shouldn't be near as
widespread or long lasting as the fog over Bristol Bay. Once any
morning fog/stratus burns off, yet another pleasant sunny day with
temperatures rising into the 70's in many areas should be expected
with light winds. Fog and stratus also will likely not redevelop
overnight as a weakening front moving through the Aleutians will
cause the offshore flow to turn more easterly. This front will
otherwise stay well outside of the area, leaving mostly sunny and
dry conditions that should persist through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A developing low well south of the Western Aleutians will bring a
period of more active weather to the region to the region through
mid week. The associated front will bring rain and gale force
gusts from the Eastern Aleutians into the Pribilof's by this
evening, and then spread into the Central Bering for Wednesday.
This should also provide enough instability to begin to break up
the extensive fog/stratus that currently blankets the region. This
will occur as the persistent high pressure over the Eastern
Bering begins to move north of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Models are in excellent agreement with the synoptic pattern
through the first half of Sunday. This period of sunny and warm
weather will continue through Friday before cloud cover and rain
chances increase heading into the weekend. The longwave pattern
which has highlighted and upper level ridge across much of the
mainland will begin to flatten out as a series of weak waves
around an area of low pressure in the western Bering Sea chip away
at the ridge. This area of low pressure sitting south near the
Central and Western Aleutians will slowly drive a front eastward
across the Bering Sea and should begin moving inland across
Southwest Alaska some time Friday afternoon or evening. There is
high confidence that increased cloud cover coupled with cooler
temperatures over the weekend will likely be seen over the weekend
but precipitation timing and placement remains rather difficult
as models struggle to resolve the upcoming pattern change.

A wide variety of solutions appear possible but the two most
likely scenarios would be either zonal flow with weak waves slowly
traversing the longwave pattern from west to east or a return of
southwesterly flow aloft which could potentially bring some decent
rainfall events back to the state. This extended forecast leans in
the direction of the ECMWF and GEM which hint at a more zonal
pattern while the GFS and GEFS highlights a more amplified and
wetter pattern for Alaska. Nevertheless, a pattern change back to
a wetter and cooler pattern is in store for the weekend and early
next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...MC