Small Craft Advisory 679, NWS Anchorage, AK

301 
FZAK52 PAFC 272300
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281200-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1012 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR 48N 179E AS
IT WEAKENS TO 1014 MB MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE BERING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-281200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-281200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-281200-
BRISTOL BAY-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-281200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-281200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-281200-
UNALASKA BAY-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-281200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-281200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-281200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-281200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-281200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-281200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ178-281200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-281200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-281200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-281200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-281200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
300 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

173 
FZAK52 PAFC 281146
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-290100-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1014 MB COMPLEX LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT DEEPENS TO 1004 MB MON NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING THROUGH
MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-290100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-290100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-290100-
BRISTOL BAY-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-290100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-290100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-290100-
UNALASKA BAY-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-290100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-290100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-290100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-290100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-290100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-290100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-290100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-290100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-290100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-290100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-290100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
346 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 20 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
426 PM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A somewhat messy upper level pattern presents itself this
afternoon as a broad, weak upper ridge stretches from the western
Bering Sea through most of the Great Land. However, several areas
of low pressure aloft are within the ridge. One upper center is
over the central Bering while the other is a more compact
disturbance over the Alaska Peninsula. Both features have weak
fronts associated with them bringing light rain to the Pribilof
Islands and southern Kodiak Island.

The main weather feature to speak of is low stratus/fog left over
from the plentiful low level moisture of the past week. A deck of
stratus stretches from Cook Inlet northward through the Susitna
Valley, but is beginning to erode from the edges as daytime
heating mixes the low levels up. The surface high pressure over
most of the state combined with lingering low pressure along the
Gulf Coast has us in an outflow pattern with strong winds in
favored areas such as Seward and Whittier.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The synoptic pattern is well agreed upon by guidance as no
developing systems are progged in our area for the short term.
Model consensus is that the eastern area will remain under
cyclonic flow with an upper low centered over the Northwest
Territories with no surface features or major embedded shortwaves.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A pleasant weekend is in store for most areas as dry offshore
flow is established over the region between a narrow upper level
ridge over the west coast of Alaska and a broad trough over
western Canada. For tonight, fog and low stratus is expected to
be much less extensive than last night as northerly flow helps to
mix out the remaining low level moisture. However, some patchy fog
and increased cloudiness could persist over portions of the Cook
Inlet region where these conditions have lingered well into the
afternoon. Otherwise, clearing skies and warmer temperatures will
prevail through the weekend, with the main forecast challenge
being gusty outflow winds through favored areas along the north
Gulf coast such as Seward, Whittier, and Valdez. Looking farther
east towards the Copper River Basin, broad cyclonic flow on the
western periphery of the Yukon trough coupled with increasing
instability will lead to the potential for showers and even a few
thunderstorms near the Wrangell Mountains on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main forecast challenge will be the development of fog after
midnight tonight for the Southwest Alaska region. The upper level
synoptics has a ridge over the Bristol Bay region, and extends to
the northwest through Nunivak Island. Therefore, look for dense
fog/stratus to develop from King Salmon southward along the
Alaska Peninsula. Onshore flow in the aforementioned region
will advect marine layer stratus and combine with radiational
cooling to kick-off the formation of dense fog. This fog will
dissipate by late Saturday morning before redeveloping by early
Sunday morning along the Alaska Peninsula. The rest of Southwest
Alaska will have northwesterly flow bringing cooler air from the
north, and drier conditions as we head into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The weak low in the Central Bering continues to stall before
dissipating by early Saturday morning. The Eastern Bering has a
1020 mb high pressure parked over Nunivak Island gradually moving
northward through Saturday. This will bring a southeasterly to
southerly flow through the majority of the eastern/central Bering,
and the Aleutian chain. Therefore, marine layer stratus and dense
fog will develop under the subsidence inversion associated with
this high pressure after midnight tonight before dissipating by
late Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the Western Aleutians has an
upper level ridge positioned over the region with westerly flow.
This is allowing marine layer stratus to be advected into the
region accompanied by areas of fog over the Shemya region. Look
for dense fog to develop in the aforementioned region by early
Saturday morning before dissipating by midday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
At the beginning of next week an upper level ridge over the
Eastern Bering will be wedged between two low pressure systems
to the east and west. The eastern bordering low sends energy from
the Yukon toward the northeast Gulf. This provides enough lift to
initiate rain along the eastern areas of the Copper River Basin
Sunday night with a few embedded thunderstorms. Precipitation
chances spread westward across Southcentral through mid week as
the upper low center slowly tracks into the northern gulf.
Meanwhile, a strong disturbance dives out of the northern Bering
across the Southwest and moves to the Alaska Peninsula on Monday.
This fast moving wave is followed by drier conditions Tuesday into
Wednesday across the southwest.

The storm to watch, for the Bering and southern Alaska, pushes a
front into the southern Bering Monday night. This storm system
breaks down the ridge across the eastern waters and sends a front
to west coast at the end of next week. Models are above average
with their synoptic agreement through the middle of next week and
then differ in strength and timing of the Bering low into Friday.
A conservative approach was used to update the extended forecast
with a heavy weight toward the ECMWF solution which had the
slower propagating low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory 145.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...KH