Small Craft Advisory 676, NWS Anchorage, AK

062 
FZAK52 PAFC 252308
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-261200-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 998 MB LOW 300 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND MOVES
300 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL AS IT WEAKENS TO 1016 MB
FRI MORNING...THEN DISSIPATES LATE FRI NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-261200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT
N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT
N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND.  SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ155-261200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ160-261200-
BRISTOL BAY-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT.
DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-261200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-261200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ171-261200-
UNALASKA BAY-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-261200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ173-261200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ174-261200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ175-261200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-261200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-261200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ178-261200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-261200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ180-261200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT..EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT S OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
SEAS 2 FT. DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT N 10 KT S OF CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS 4
FT. DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF CAPE
NEWENHAM. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-261200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-261200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
308 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

865 
FZAK52 PAFC 261149
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-270115-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 57N 178W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE
DISSIPATING SAT EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

$$

PKZ150-270115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ155-270115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT NW 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ160-270115-
BRISTOL BAY-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-270115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-270115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ171-270115-
UNALASKA BAY-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-270115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ173-270115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ174-270115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ175-270115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-270115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-270115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-270115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-270115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ180-270115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-270115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-270115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
349 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern aloft is a very amplified one owing to a couple stout
upper level ridges, one over the northeast Pacific and another one
over the northwest Pacific. in between these two is a decaying
upper trough spinning south of the Eastern Aleutians. Such an
amplification leads to a large stream of moisture, an atmospheric
river, with subtropical connections. Satellite based observations
of precipitable water show around 1.5 inches in this moisture
plume and the PAFC 24/12z sounding shows 1 inch in the column. A
pretty strong southwesterly jet aloft stretches from the north
Pacific onto the mainland. There are several disturbances embedded
in the flow helping to blossom areas of rain over the Cook Inlet
region and others further upstream which will impact the area
tonight.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Guidance is in good agreement with the breakdown of the highly
amplified trough. The consensus is that the two areas of ridging
in the Pacific will pinch off a cut off upper low in the central
Pacific, and the rest of the energy to the north will move as an
open wave from west to east across southern Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level wave embedded in deep southwesterly flow aloft
will take advantage of an abundant supply of North Pacific
moisture to produce widespread heavy rain across much of
Southcentral AK tonight into Thursday morning. The heaviest rain
will fall over northeastern portions of Prince William Sound and
the Wrangell Mountains where 3-5 inches or rain will be possible
through Thursday evening, however most areas including Anchorage
will still likely see between one half and one inch of rainfall by
Thursday morning.

Attention then quickly turns to thunderstorm potential on Thursday
afternoon as a potent upper level trough moves in from the west
and partial clearing allows for increasing instability. The main
forecast challenge will be determining the degree of
destabilization that ultimately takes place within the short
window of time between the departure of the heavier stratiform
rain and the arrival of the trough in the afternoon, as lingering
cloud cover from overnight could inhibit development of more
robust instability. Given the favorable dynamic support, at least
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected across
much of the area. This situation will bear watching through the
morning forecast package as finer details come into better focus.

Conditions will then improve rapidly from west to east beginning
Thursday night as high pressure builds in behind the departing
trough. This will yield pleasant conditions on Friday with
clearing skies and at least a temporary reprieve from the rainy
pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

An upper level trough associated with relatively cold air aloft
will dominate the weather pattern across the Southwest mainland
over the next several days as the trough progresses eastward. On
Thursday, enough diurnal heating is expected across the Kuskokwim
valley and northern Bristol bay for a few thunderstorms to form in
the afternoon. By Thursday night, an upper level ridge will begin
to push inland across the Southwest mainland. This will support
broad southwesterly flow and help to push fog and stratus onshore
across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

A warm front currently stretching across the western Aleutians is
slowly progressing towards the east today towards the central
Aleutians. It is not a particularly potent front, and will support
generally light showers and winds below gale criteria. Meanwhile,
abundant stratus and fog sit beneath an upper level ridge over the
eastern and central Bering. &&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The pattern change will be well underway by Saturday with high
pressure building across the interior of Alaska. Models are still
struggling with just how dry the new air mass is going to be with
a very broad and expansive area of low pressure expending from the
Alaska Panhandle up through Prince William Sound. Nevertheless, it
appears as if much of Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will see
clearing skies and warming temperatures with this new pattern
through the weekend. The stacked low extending from the Alaska
Panhandle to Prince William Sound will be an issue through the
forecast period as it looks like several easterly waves will
rotate around the feature. Depending on the strength of the ridge
over western Alaska, a few showers could move through the Copper
River Basin and possibly the Anchorage area by midweek.

The Bering Sea will be quite quiet through much of the time
period with weak high pressure over the eastern half of the sea
while the rest of the area will remain under cyclonic flow. Given
how moist the air mass has been recently, it looks like fog will
remain an issue over the eastern Bering and the southwest
coastline through the weekend. Just like the rest of Alaska, a
pattern shift looks likely for the Bering Sea as well. However,
this will come in the form of a potent frontal boundary that will
enter the western and central Bering Sea Tuesday morning.
Increasing winds and rainfall will be likely with the frontal
boundary but strength and timing is a little rough to forecast at
this time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory 145.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ML
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ELN
LONG TERM...MC