Small Craft Advisory 674, NWS Anchorage, AK

488 
FZAK51 PAFC 242356
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251300-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
LATE THU NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH FRI MORNING.
A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC FRI MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-251300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-251300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-251300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-251300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-251300-
PORT VALDEZ-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-251300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-251300-
VALDEZ ARM-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-251300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-251300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-251300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-251300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-251300-
CHINIAK BAY-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-251300-
MARMOT BAY-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-251300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-251300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-251300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-251300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

909 
FZAK51 PAFC 251200
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-260100-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF
THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GULF THOUGH FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC.

$$

PKZ119-260100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-260100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-260100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR SEWARD. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR SEWARD. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-260100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING
BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 25 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-260100-
PORT VALDEZ-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-260100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-260100-
VALDEZ ARM-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-260100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-260100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-260100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-260100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-260100-
CHINIAK BAY-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-260100-
MARMOT BAY-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-260100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-260100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-260100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-260100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 25 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper air pattern over the area continues to amplify today. A
digging trough is sharpening with a trough axis stretching from western
Alaska through the Bering Sea, Aleutians, and into the northern
Pacific Ocean. The main low circulation is south of the central
Aleutians. Wrapping around the base of the trough is a potent
upper level jet. This jet is supporting strong deep southerly flow
and subtropical moisture advection into southwestern and
southcentral Alaska. This is evidenced through precipitable water
values on morning soundings anywhere between 110% and 130% of
normal throughout Southcentral Alaska and the southwest Mainland.
A weak disturbance tapping into the deep saturation this morning
brought more heavy rainfall to Southcentral Alaska. However, as
the upper-level support has weakened, rain is tapering off into
lighter showers this afternoon.

With the heavy rainfall that has been observed over the last few
days, flooding continues to be a concern along rivers in the
Susitna Valley and the north Gulf Coast. With rainfall expected
to continue through the middle of the week, flooding will remain a
concern and rivers will continue to be closely monitored.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good synoptic agreement through the short term with
the main differences lying in the details. A warm front
approaching the northern Gulf Coast from the south will bring the
next big wave of rain Wednesday night. Models are in good general
agreement with the front, however there are slight differences in
the location and timing of upper disturbances embedded within the
onshore flow. This is all resulting in high confidence in the wet
pattern continuing through Thursday with some smaller
uncertainties on the exact placement and timing of the heaviest
rain. Models are then in good agreement with a transition to a
drier pattern starting towards the end of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The wet pattern in place for several days continues through the
first half of Thursday. Water vapor satellite depicts an
organizing wave moving north toward the Alaska Peninsula, with an
upper level warm front signature approaching the southern
coastline. This feature will be the leading edge of our next
significant moisture push later tonight into Wednesday. If there
is a silver lining with this system, it is that stability will be higher
than with the Monday-Monday night system, thus rainfall amounts
should not be quite as robust with this coming system. Heaviest
rainfall amounts will favor south and east-facing slopes tonight
into Wednesday as southeasterly lower level flow will increase in
unison with the southwesterly upper flow. This means Western
Prince William Sound and western Susitna Valley areas will see the
heaviest rainfall amounts, with Anchorage and Palmer areas seeing
much lesser amounts within the downslope hole. As the low level
flow becomes southwesterly in tandem with the upper flow late
Wednesday into early Thursday, rainfall will begin to favor south-
and west- facing slopes, and more widespread steady rainfall can
be expected over much of the region, including Anchorage.

By Thursday, a surface front finally begins to move east through
the Copper River Basin and central Gulf, with the potential for a
significant dry slot moving north and east through the Cook Inlet
region by midday ahead of the main upper level low. Along with
bringing some clearing skies and sunshine, this will help
contribute to increased instability over much of Southcentral
Alaska, with the potential for scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms to develop. 0-6 kilometer shear values
look to be rather decent at 25 to 40 knots, and if instability
trends upwards, it is possible for isolated thunderstorms to be
fast-moving and somewhat organized, so this bears some watching.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Southwest Alaska remains in a moist, unstable and showery air mass
in between two troughs this afternoon with the potential for a
few isolated thunderstorms through the evening hours. The next
developing frontal wave will reach the Alaska Peninsula tonight
and Southwest Alaska Wednesday morning. Showers will change over
to steadier and widespread rain as the front lifts north with
breezy east winds increasing through gaps in the Aleutian Range.
Rain will change back over to showers Wednesday night then taper
off to a more scattered coverage through Thursday morning as the
front moves further off to the east. Showers will pick again
somewhat Thursday afternoon as solar heating supports increased
convection

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A warm front out near the western Aleutians will push gradually
east tonight and Wednesday to weaken and dissipate as it moves
into the central Aleutians Wednesday night and Thursday. The
associated cooler front following behind will reach the western
Aleutians late Wednesday night, then swing east to the central
Aleutians through Thursday afternoon. Upper level ridging over the
western Bering will move into the central Bering through Wednesday
night and into the eastern Bering Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The advertised pattern change is still on schedule but just a
touch quicker than expected yesterday. By Thursday evening high
pressure will begin to build across the Alaska mainland which will
help begin the pattern change as offshore flow develops. This flow
will help dry out the lower levels of the atmosphere and decrease
rain chances Friday through the beginning of next week. The upper
level pattern is also changing but the upper level ridge will
remain anchored over Southwest Alaska with a broad upper level low
over the Alaska/Canada border. This complicates the forecast a bit
as it will likely keep a few showers near higher terrain in the
Copper River Basin and possibly Susitna Valley. However, much of
Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will easily see some of the best
weather this August has yet to offer. Confidence in the nice
weather decreases on Monday as models are struggling on how to
resolve an upper low of the Bering Strait. This feature, although
well outside of our forecast area, will impact the amplitude of
the building ridge over the western half of Alaska. Should this
low end up splitting it's energy with a low in the Arctic and
another low near the Aleutians then the Alaska mainland could be
in for an extended nice period of weather. On the other hand, if
this feature gets cut off, then it will limit the extent of the
upper level ridge and likely bring parts of Alaska back into a
wetter period by the middle of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory 125.
MARINE...Gales 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...MC