Small Craft Advisory 655, NWS Anchorage, AK

634 
FZAK51 PAFC 182302
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191145-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH LATE
FRI NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF SAT.

$$

PKZ119-191145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-191145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-191145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-191145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-191145-
PORT VALDEZ-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-191145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-191145-
VALDEZ ARM-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-191145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-191145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-191145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-191145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-191145-
CHINIAK BAY-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-191145-
MARMOT BAY-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-191145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-191145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-191145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-191145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
302 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad low gradually shifts northeastward as it weakens south of
the western Alaska Peninsula. A warm front associated with the low
is pushing northward over the Gulf of Alaska this afternoon
bringing some gusty winds to the area. Behind and along this
front, a fairly long fetch of subtropical moisture advection is
supporting widespread rain showers over the northern Gulf coast
and into the Bristol Bay Region. High pressure and northerly flow
continues over the Bering, allowing for low stratus clouds and
patchy fog to remain over the area. Further west, a front lies
just to the west of Shemya, poised to enter the western Bering
later this evening.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement through Thursday. A front lifts
northward across the Gulf and pushes onshore tonight, followed by
weak ridging temporarily building in over the northern Gulf by
Thursday evening. Models differ in the timing and track of a wave
in the Gulf Thursday evening into Friday morning. The wave,
currently southwest of the main eastern Aleutian low, will wrap
around the base of the low and track northeastward towards the
Gulf over the next 48 hours. The GFS, GEM, and ECMWF are in good
agreement bringing the wave to the northern Gulf coast by Friday
morning and then quickly moving the energy east. The NAM is the
outlier with its solution, lagging the wave behind in timing and
tracking the low further west along the Gulf Coast than the other
models. The main impact of these differences for the forecast is
that the NAM brings heavier precipitation and stronger winds to
the Gulf and Gulf Coast than the other models. The GFS, GEM, and
ECMWF solutions were favored for the forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The frontal wave in the Gulf will continue northeast and inland
tonight through Thursday morning...shearing the trailing occluded
front away from the original parent low south of the Alaska
Peninsula. The next developing frontal wave will track into the
southern Gulf early Friday morning then continue north or
northeast through the day. Uncertainty is high regarding the path
of this next surface low with possible tracks ranging from it
making land fall along the northern Gulf Coast to the southeast
Alaska Panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Areas of rain will affect the mainland through Friday night. An
upper level low anchored over the Alaska Peninsula will send
multiple embedded disturbances over mainly the Bristol Bay area,
and to a lesser extent the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta areas. Winds
will be gusty out of the east tonight, then remain relatively
light for the remainder of the short term forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Northerly flow will exist over the central and eastern Bering Sea
with areas of rain as an upper level low pressure system sits over
the area. A front and disturbance will slide into the western
Bering tonight, weakening tomorrow between Shemya and Adak.
Beginning overnight tonight, a broad deck of low stratus and dense
fog will build over the Western Aleutians/Bering Sea and persist
through Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
An active weather pattern headlines the extended forecast Friday
night through Wednesday as subtropical and polar lows send
easterly tracking systems into the Bering. The first subtropical
system is progged to track from the western Gulf on Friday night
to the east Gulf on Sunday. The pattern across the Bering flattens
out in the wake of this system and is followed by an Arctic low
dropping through the Bering Strait on Sunday. At the same time, a
North Pacific ridge builds into the western Aleutians. The low
Monday through Wednesday looks like it should suppress the
eastward progression of the ridge as several strong shortwaves
dive across Kamchatka. This set up brings a wet pattern to
southern Alaska and the eastern Bering through next Wednesday with
areas of fog for the western Bering and Aleutians.

Model agreement is generally good with the synoptic pattern
through Saturday with a greater spread of solutions early next
week. Even though agreement is relatively in a good range for
this weekend, there is still higher than average uncertainty as
models typically struggle when multiple low centers are embedded
within a broad trough. The first challenge for models is the speed
of the first subtropical system. Models are centering the upper
low near the panhandle Saturday morning. The GFS currently places
the center slightly further north than the ECMWF and the 12Z NAM
was the outlier with a much slower center over the western Gulf.
The second challenge is timing and strength of the trough digging
from the Arctic which pushes a front into the Bering on Saturday.
Operational models are in agreement that the initial front quickly
pushes into the southwest mainland by Saturday night...however
they differ greatly in the upper level development through mid
week as energy forces an amplified pattern across the Bering.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...KH