Small Craft Advisory 641, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Aug 13, 2016, 3:22 PM AKDT (23:22 UTC)

Expired

Aug 14, 2016, 4:00 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

461 
FZAK52 PAFC 132322
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141200-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 991 MB LOW NEAR CHIRIKOF ISLAND MOVES INTO THE GULF BY SUN
AFTERNOON. A 1013 MB LOW 275 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU LATE TONIGHT
MOVES TO 25 NM NORTHEAST OF AMCHITKA AT 1009 MB SUN
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-141200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-141200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NW 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NW 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-141200-
BRISTOL BAY-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-141200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 10
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-141200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-141200-
UNALASKA BAY-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10
FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-141200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT W OF UNALASKA. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT W OF UNALASKA. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT W OF UNALASKA. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ173-141200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-141200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N 10 KT. SEAS 5
FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ175-141200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-141200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-141200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-141200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT...INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 7
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-141200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-141200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-141200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-141200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
322 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE 15
KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE 10 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE 10
KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Aug 13, 4:52 AM AKDT, 10 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Broad upper level low pressure continues over the eastern half of
the Bering Sea and western half of mainland Alaska. Within this
upper level low, notable shortwaves can be distinguished by water
vapor satellite near the North Gulf Coast, Southwest Alaska
extending southeast toward Kodiak Island, a third over the
southeastern Bering and Eastern Aleutians approaching the Alaska
Peninsula, and a fourth diving south through the central Bering
toward the Central and Eastern Aleutians. Another system is
moving rapidly east through flat upper ridging over the Western
Aleutians and is mainly just producing mid- to high-level clouds.
Meanwhile, shortwave ridging can be seen along the far eastern
Alaska Range and over the Middle Kuskokwim Valley.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in great agreement in moving the shortwave over the
North Gulf Coast inland while diminishing as it nears the Alaska
Range later this afternoon. Meanwhile, the low pressure system
over the southeastern Bering moves to the northern Gulf by the
end of the weekend and then slowly dissipates through Tuesday.
An amplified ridge building over the Kamchatka Peninsula will
allow for low pressure systems to dig south through the Bering and
into the North Pacific through early next week. With weakening
mid- to upper-level flow over much of the southern two-thirds of
the mainland, the thermal trough will become re-established over
the interior and southwest mainland and serve as the primary
focal mechanism for unsettled weather for much of the region
through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level wave associated with a low over Sand Point is
currently supporting showers across much of the northern gulf
coast and portions of the Susitna Valley. Even as this wave
pushes inland and weakens this afternoon, persistent onshore flow
will support showers along the coast into the evening. Models
still indicate that this onshore flow will continue to support a
coastal ridge across Prince William Sound, which will in turn
support cross barrier flow and downsloping. As a result,
precipitation is expected to be generally light and limited across
the Anchorage Bowl and Kenai Peninsula.

On Sunday, the low over Sand Point will move across Kodiak Island
and into the North Gulf. This will result in another round of steady
rain along the North Gulf Coast throughout the day on Sunday. The
heaviest rainfall is expected to occur across western Prince
William Sound where a persistent low level jet will enhance lift.
However, on Sunday this low level jet will once more support
downsloping across the Anchorage Bowl and western Kenai Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (through Mon)...

As the Bering low crosses the Akpen and moves into the Gulf,
showers will be common across the area through Mon. The moist
thermal trough redevelops in the vicinity of the Kuskokwim Valley
and mountains, and weak disturbances will move through the
unstable airmass. In addition to enhancing shower activity, they
will trigger a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms focused
over the Kuskokwim region today through Mon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (through Mon)...

As the low moves into the Gulf, winds and seas over the Bering and
Aleutians will gradually diminish and subside. Tonight through
Mon a low will bring rain and some wind to the Western and
Central ALeutians. Otherwise only some patchy fog is expected as
high pressure builds into the Bering on Mon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Monday begins with an upper low pressure system spinning in the
Gulf. Widespread cloud cover will dominate, especially over the
north gulf coast where the majority of the rain will be confined.
Inland locations will see significantly less rain showers and some
breaks with sun but showers can't be completely ruled out. This
system breaks down on Tuesday, getting pushed out by an incoming
north Pacific system. The upper low will get squeezed by a pair of
Pacific ridges, sending multiple waves at southern Alaska. There
doesn't look to be a great frontal push with this system, but
expect periods of rain in most areas through mid-week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales...119 125 155 170 172-174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...ML

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.