Small Craft Advisory 63, NWS Anchorage, AK

851 
FZAK52 PAFC 191216
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-200115-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 990 MB LOW 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK SLIDES INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC TUE NIGHT AT 998 MB THEN DISSIPATES WED MORNING. A 982 MB
LOW 280 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WEAKENS TO 991 MB AS IT MOVES 210
NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK THEN DISSIPATES WED MORNING. A 1000 MB LOW
FORMS 180 NM WEST OF ST PAUL ISLAND EARLY THU MORNING AND MOVES
230 NM WEST OF ST PAUL AT 997 MB LATE THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-200115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF SHELIKOF STRAIT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ155-200115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-200115-
BRISTOL BAY-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-200115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-200115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-200115-
UNALASKA BAY-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-200115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ173-200115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-200115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-200115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-200115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ177-200115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-200115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF SHEMYA.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY FROM
SHEMYA N.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-200115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-200115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY
FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-200115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-200115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
E. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E.
SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

276 
FZAK52 PAFC 192359
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-201230-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 985 MB LOW 215 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK WILL DISSIPATE WED MORNING.
A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-201230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF SHELIKOF STRAIT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF SHELIKOF STRAIT IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF SHELIKOF STRAIT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ155-201230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 10 KT W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS.
SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ160-201230-
BRISTOL BAY-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-201230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-201230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-201230-
UNALASKA BAY-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-201230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-201230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-201230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-201230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ176-201230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-201230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. AND RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-201230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 35 KT.
SEAS 9 FT IN THE EVENING BUILDING TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ179-201230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-201230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY
FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-201230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY
FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-201230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E.
SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 35 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
W. SEAS 11 FT. AND PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND N.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
540 AM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS
MORNING...WITH VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE SCALE
FEATURE SPREADING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE
ANCHORED BY A BROAD LOW CENTER WHICH HAS REMAINED QUASI STATIONARY
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
SLOWLY WEAKENS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF IS BRINGING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE GULF WATERS AND IS
POISED TO SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AK LATER TODAY. A THIRD EMBEDDED LOW IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE IS
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY...WITH A
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN
BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE PRIBILOFS AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SHORT TERM MODEL AGREEMENT IS
STRONG WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH MOSTLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES ARISING IN THE HANDLING OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTH PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MOST
IMPACTFUL OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE
GULF TODAY AND THEN ANOTHER WAVE FOLLOWING CLOSELY ON ITS HEELS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY UTILIZED THE NAM FOR THE
MORNING PACKAGE AS IT REPRESENTS A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION BETWEEN
THE GFS AND THE EC FOR THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PATTERN REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WITH LOW AFTER LOW COMING UP
THE VERY EASTERN SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND THEN RECURVING
BACK TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS IS MAKING FOR A TRACK RIGHT ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE...THEN SKIRTING PAST CORDOVA AND VALDEZ
BEFORE PUSHING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WITH THIS MORNING'S LOW
(OVER THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS) IS THAT IT APPEARS A BIT STRONGER.
OVERNIGHT THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH IT SO WE
HAVE INCREASED SOME OF THE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED
BARRIER-JET REGION NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE...AND SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INTERESTING BECAUSE
OF ITS SLOW AND STEADY APPROACH...WHICH HAS ALLOWED BROAD OFFSHORE
FLOW TO DOMINATE. THIS HAS ALLOWED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
QUITE A BIT FARTHER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT AND COULD HELP TO
PROVIDE A STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT LATER TODAY. GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE FAVORED AREAS...MATANUSKA
VALLEY...THOMPSON PASS...AND THE TURNAGAIN ARM. FOR THOSE HOPING
FOR MORE SNOW IN ANCHORAGE...SADLY IT LOOKS AS IF THE CROSS
BARRIER FLOW REALLY RAMPS UP AND PUTS US IN A DOWNSLOPE HOLE ONCE
AGAIN. A STRAY SHOWER WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY
OUR BEST HOPE.

BY TUE...THE FIRST SYSTEM IS ALREADY WRAPPING TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND
WHILE ANOTHER LOW IS FOLLOWING A VERY SIMILAR TRACK TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS ALMOST LIKE A CARBON-COPY OF WHAT WE
SAW OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS GUSTY WINDS INLAND WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION FOR COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
BELOW FREEZING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS A GALE FORCE LOW ENTERING THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN AND ALASKA RANGE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST REGION HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON A WEAK
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF KODIAK
ISLAND AND WILL BRING A SWATH OF MOISTURE INTO ALASKA PENINSULA.
THIS WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE BRISTOL BAY INTERIOR. WHILE
THE REST OF THE SOUTHWEST REGION WILL HAVE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SHOWERY
WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE REGION. THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND
TRANSITION INTO THE CENTRAL/WESTERN BERING SEA. THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL BE AFFECTED BY A NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND AS HEAD INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SPILL OVER INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX AS FAR AS THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MOVING INTO AREA WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BY TUESDAY EVENING...A FAST-MOVING AND WELL-DEVELOPED WEST-MOVING
FRONT MOVES WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE AND THEN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN
RANGES...WITH LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION ON
THE LEEWARD SIDES THAT INCLUDE THE LARGE POPULATION CENTERS.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...PRESSURE RISES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
PASSING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH WEST-EAST TERRAIN GAPS...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY
IMPACTFUL.

BEYOND THIS FEATURE...SYNOPTICALLY...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OF ACTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC...WITH MANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
ROTATING WITHIN ITS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS AND SNOW/RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR AS A GALE-
FORCE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND A LOW
FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MOVES NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REPLACING AFOREMENTIONED
EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF ACTION. THIS SLIGHT PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A RETURN TO THE
EXPANSIVE CENTER OF ACTION OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING AND NORTH
PACIFIC RETURNS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. STRONGER WINDS TO GALE-FORCE WILL BE
CONFINED TO STRONGER EMBEDDED LOWS WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC
PATTERN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 119.
         GALE 120 125 127 177 178 185.
		 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180-185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...CC