Small Craft Advisory 626, NWS Anchorage, AK

955 
FZAK51 PAFC 091157
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100015-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1012 MB LOW 160 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY MOVES TO 20 NM SOUTH OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 1009 MB BY THU MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THU MORNING. WEAK TROUGHS MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TO THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THU
MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-100015-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-100015-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-100015-
RESURRECTION BAY-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-100015-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-100015-
PORT VALDEZ-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-100015-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-100015-
VALDEZ ARM-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-100015-
PASSAGE CANAL-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-100015-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ131-100015-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-100015-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-100015-
CHINIAK BAY-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1
FOOT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.

$$

PKZ137-100015-
MARMOT BAY-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-100015-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-100015-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-100015-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ141-100015-
KACHEMAK BAY-
357 AM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
422 AM AKDT MON AUG 8 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A large vertically stacked low pressure system remains anchored
over the southwest coast near Nunivak Island this morning. This
feature is embedded within a sprawling longwave trough that
extends from near the north pole through the Bering Sea, with
moist onshore flow on the eastern periphery of the low keeping
widespread shower activity over the southern mainland as various
disturbances rotate around the base of the trough. Meanwhile,
drier northerly flow and weak surface ridging on the backside of
the trough is promoting a more benign low stratus regime over much
of the Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement in the short term as the low near
Nunivak Island slowly drifts eastward over the mainland and
weakens through Wednesday. This will keep the wet pattern going
through the first half of the week, with precipitation gradually
becoming more showery in nature in the presence of broad cyclonic
flow aloft. Generally favored higher resolution NAM guidance given
the good overall agreement.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level low centered over the Kuskokwim Delta will move
very little over the next couple of days. A trough associated with
this low that is near Kodiak Island this morning will push north
into south central Alaska today. This will increase shower
activity across the area. Some showers could be fairly heavy,
especially this afternoon and early evening as the trough moves
into the area and the convective parameters become more favorable.
Shower activity will diminish tonight as the trough moves inland.
Then is will increase again as the flow aloft becomes southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The vertically stacked low centered over the Kuskokwim Delta will
continue to slowly track eastward into the northern parts of the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley through Tuesday morning. This will keep a
slightly cooler and moist showery pattern in place over the area
through midweek. As the upper low slowly tracks further inland
today, sufficient instability and dynamic forcing over the area
should lead to continued showery conditions and some isolated
thunderstorms to develop over the inland areas through this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Rather quiet weather will encompass most of the Bering as the
vertically stacked and weakening low over the Kuskokwim Delta
moves further inland. A rapidly weakening frontal zone over the
Central Aleutians will leave some low stratus and fog in its wake
before northerly winds move in behind the weakened front. The next
system of interest will move into the Western Bering/Aleutians
Tuesday morning, then spread eastward into the Central Aleutians
by Tuesday night. This system will bring widespread rain and
gusty 25 to 35 knot southwest winds along the Western and Central
Aleutians as the front progresses eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Models agree that day 3 (Wed) a weak trough will keep showers
over the mainland, a large area of rain associated with a low from
Siberia will move across the Bering to the Akpen, and the western
Aleutians will come under the influence of the remains of a
tropical system.

By Wed night models begin to separate with respect to the timing
of the tropical remnant as it moves across the Bering. The
Canadian and EC are a full 24 hours faster than the GFS, and the
forecast leans in that direction, since the GFS solution is not
consistent with previous runs. This means the weakening remnant
low will enter the western Bering Wed night and move to the
Kuskokwim delta by Fri. This feature will bring with it some wind
and rain, and due to a long fetch across the north Pacific, higher
seas than what has been experienced for most of the summer. High
pressure will then build across the Bering through the weekend as
seas diminish. Although some diminishing of rain over mainland Ak
is expected later in the week, the tropical moisture will spread
inland over all of southwest and Southcentral AK with rain for
next weekend.

The forecast used the EC for day 3 and then WPC guidance, which
relied on the EC operational run and ensembles through the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...DS