Small Craft Advisory 591, NWS Anchorage, AK

721 
FZAK52 PAFC 242317
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-251145-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BROAD WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE BERING SEA. A 1002 MB LOW FORMS 85
NM NORTHEAST OF CHIGNIK TONIGHT AND MOVES TO 20 NM NORTH OF SAND
POINT BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH NO CHANGE IN PRESSURE.

$$

PKZ150-251145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-251145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-251145-
BRISTOL BAY-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-251145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-251145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-251145-
UNALASKA BAY-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-251145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ173-251145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-251145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ175-251145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-251145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ177-251145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ178-251145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ179-251145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-251145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-251145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-251145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
317 PM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 PM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The low that brought rain to much of Southcentral Alaska has
pushed off into the eastern Gulf bringing the bulk of that rain
with it. Another system is making its way toward Southwest Alaska
from the north with rain already spreading across the area.
Between these two systems is weak ridging that is helping to clear
things out over Southcentral Alaska. Out west, ridging sits to the
south of the western Aleutians which is bringing northwest flow
across the Bering and Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
For the most part the models are in good agreement. However, there
are some issues with the low tracking south across Southwest
Alaska tonight. They do not seem to quite now how to handle the
various shortwaves swinging around the main low which is causing
problems as to when rain will start for Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The drier conditions observed over parts of Southcentral this
afternoon will wrap up overnight tonight, as the weak ridging
pushes further eastward, and a slightly more potent upper level
low begins to move in from the west. This system will bring
another round of rain, which may be heavy at times, to much of
Southcentral Alaska. This wet pattern will continue through the
beginning of next week. Winds along Turnagain Arm will shift from
the southwest to southeast overnight tonight, and become more
gusty throughout the day Sunday, and again on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Weak upper level ridging over Southcentral will quickly exit to
the east, making room for an upper level trough to swing in from
the west overnight tonight. This system will bring another round
of rain, which can be heavy at times, to much of Southcentral
Alaska through Monday. In addition, there will be sufficient
pressure gradients to support local gap winds from the building
coastal ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A continuation of the cloudy and wet pattern is in store for
Southwest Alaska in the coming days as a broad upper level trough
will bring another round of widespread rain to Southwest Alaska
tonight and Sunday, with precipitation transitioning to a more
showery regime with the passage of the trough. Showers will begin
to diminish in coverage from west to east by Sunday night as the
trough evolves into a closed low and sinks southward towards
Bristol Bay and the AK Peninsula, however this diminishing trend
will be short lived as an easterly wave on the northern periphery
of the large scale feature once again enhances shower coverage on
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The trough moving over the southwest mainland will also bring
showery conditions to the Eastern Bering through Sunday afternoon
as it dives southward towards the AK Peninsula, with conditions
improving through Monday across much of the Bering as drier north
to northwesterly flow develops in the wake of the trough. In the
meantime, a weak North Pacific front will bring steadier rain to
portions of the Western and Central Aleutians tonight into Sunday
morning before sinking south of the area on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
There is a northeasterly 80 knot jet streak over the Y-K Delta
streaming into the eastern Bering, and northwesterly 100 knot jet
positioned over the Western Aleutians on Monday. These synoptic
features merge into one jet streak as they dig into the base of
the longwave trough located south of the Central Aleutians. By
Tuesday evening heading into Wednesday this jet streak transitions
to a 100 knot southwesterly jet streak south of the Eastern
ALeutians. By Wednesday this feature will be streaming through the
Gulf into the Southeast Panhandle. Meanwhile, an upper level
closed low will be over the Eastern Aleutians before tracking into
the North Pacific ocean by Tuesday. This feature will move into
the northern Gulf by Thursday before dissipating by Friday. While
a second upper level low will form in the base of the longwave
trough before moving to the eastern Gulf by Friday afternoon. This
will coincide as a deep southwesterly flow develops in the North
Pacific ocean, and extends into the eastern Gulf region by the
midweek time-frame. Therefore, resulting in a wetter pattern as
shortwaves track through the Southwest Alaska region, and swings
around the base of the longwave trough before moving through the
Southcentral region. This synoptic scenario will bring abundant
moisture, and precipitation to the Southwest/Southcentral regions
through Friday. The rest of the Bering and the Aleutians will have
northerly flow with a showery weather regime. WHile some marine
layer stratus/fog will filter into the region associated with the
high pressure just west of Shemya.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...dk
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...pepe
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...cb
LONG TERM...pd