Small Craft Advisory 564, NWS Anchorage, AK

542 
FZAK52 PAFC 161121
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-170045-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1008 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO 340 NM NORTH OF ADAK AT 1022 MB SUN NIGHT
THEN DISSIPATE MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-170045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-170045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-170045-
BRISTOL BAY-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-170045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-170045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-170045-
UNALASKA BAY-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-170045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ173-170045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-170045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-170045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-170045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ177-170045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-170045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT N 15 KT E OF SHEMYA. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-170045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-170045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-170045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-170045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
321 AM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

698 
FZAK52 PAFC 162350
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171300-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 1015 MB LOW 150 NM
SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL TRACK TO 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT
PAUL ISLAND AT 1026 MB SUN AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATE MON MORNING.
A 1026 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 125 NM WEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR AT 1026 MB MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-171300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ155-171300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT W 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-171300-
BRISTOL BAY-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ165-171300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ170-171300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
EARLY. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-171300-
UNALASKA BAY-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-171300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-171300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-171300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-171300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-171300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-171300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-171300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-171300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-171300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ181-171300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-171300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
350 PM AKDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level high pressure remains over the Kamchatka
Peninsula with associated ridge extending eastward through the
Bering Strait. The Southcentral region has a closed upper level
high pressure located over the Denali region with a ridge
extending through the Copper River Basin into the eastern Gulf.
These synoptic features will continue to bring very warm and
unstable conditions today. The lifted indices are minus 1 degrees
Celsius through the northern Copper River Basin, and along the
Alaska Range accompanied by the thermal trough in the region. The
satellite imagery is showing some low clouds trapped under the
inversion streaming through the northern Gulf coastal communities
into the Valdez region. Meanwhile, over the Eastern Aleutians
there is a closed low aloft near Cold Bay. This is reflected at
the surface with a 1019 mb low over Unalaska with moisture being
streamed from the Pacific Ocean side of the chain into lower
eastern Bering side. This is producing a showery weather regime
for the eastern Bering/Aleutians. The rest of the Bering is being
dominated by the high pressure with marine layer stratus/fog.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in good synoptic agreement through the short
term. The NAM is slightly slower with the North Pacific low moving
towards the Central Aleutians by Saturday, but not enough of
difference to cause any issues with this system. Looks like the
Southcentral region remains very warm as the ridge builds through
the weekend. The forecast confidence remains high for the next
several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The upper level ridge will remain over Southcentral Alaska
through Saturday night. The air mass over the Copper River basin
and portions of the Susitna valley will continue to be unstable,
with considerable thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and
evening hours today and Saturday. Most of the remainder of
Southcentral Alaska will be under stable and dry conditions.
Temperatures across the area will continue to be above normal. A
slight change will occur Saturday night when the upper level winds
will switch from southeast to west, which will increase the
stability across the area. It will also create low level offshore
flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

The low over the Alaska Peninsula will slowly track west along the
Aleutians as it weakens. This will bring weak southeasterly flow
to Southwest Alaska with showers on the leeward side of the
mountains today. There will also be enough instability along the
Alaska Range for isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon.
On Saturday, high pressure will build in over the area starting to
clear out the rain and cloud cover moving into Sunday. With the
skies clearing out, temperatures will rise with some areas in the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley reaching near 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

Dominant high pressure over the western Bering will last through
Sunday. This high has helped to create widespread fog over the
central and western Bering and Aleutians. These conditions look
to last through the weekend. Over the Eastern Aleutians, a low is
tracking over the area from the Alaska Peninsula as it slowly
tracks west and weakens. This low is bringing light rain to the
area as it moves through. On Saturday, another low will move in
over the Eastern Aleutians from the North Pacific and it will
quickly diminish as it tracks into the Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Forecast thinking remains largely unchanged into the middle of
next week as confidence grows regarding the evolution of the
synoptic pattern in the coming days. A building North Pacific
ridge will extend over the southwest mainland by late Sunday as
offshore flow becomes established over Southcentral Alaska during
the early part of next week. This will yield a continuation of the
very warm temperatures seen in recent days, with potential for
some of the warmest temperatures observed so far this year across
portions of Southcentral Sunday into Monday as 850 mb temperatures
climb into the +12-15 C range and afternoon highs approach or
exceed 80F over many interior locations. The middle of the week
looks to bring a slight cooling trend as northwest flow increases
and several disturbances dive over the top of the ridge, however
temperatures will still likely remain above seasonal normal values
for much of the next week. Meanwhile, the ridge will promote the
typical low clouds and fog for much of the eastern Bering, with
chances for precipitation increasing towards the middle of next
week as another North Pacific low lifts across the Central
Aleutians.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1252 PM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

AKZ141-160630-
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLENNALLEN...EUREKA...MCCARTHY...
PAXSON...SLANA
1252 PM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TODAY. ALREADY A STRONG CLUSTER OF STORMS
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WEST OF PAXON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCAL GUSTS OF 15 TO
30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.
CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF
GULKANA.

USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING OR RECREATING IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALASKA RANGE WEST OF
GULKANA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
146 PM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

AKZ141-160630-
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLENNALLEN...EUREKA...MCCARTHY...
PAXSON...SLANA
1252 PM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2016

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TODAY. ALREADY A STRONG CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WEST OF PAXSON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.
CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF
GULKANA.

USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING OR RECREATING IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALASKA RANGE WEST OF
GULKANA.