Small Craft Advisory 558, NWS Anchorage, AK

211 
FZAK51 PAFC 132335
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141245-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS FROM A 1008 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK
WILL CROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRI.


$$

PKZ119-141245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-141245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-141245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-141245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-141245-
PORT VALDEZ-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-141245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-141245-
VALDEZ ARM-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-141245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-141245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-141245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-141245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-141245-
CHINIAK BAY-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-141245-
MARMOT BAY-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-141245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-141245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-141245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-141245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
335 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
410 PM AKDT TUE JUL 12 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Currently an upper level ridge is building over the northern
mainland off of the Bering Sea while the upper level low in the
Gulf of Alaska and the associated upper trough from the low across
the Southwest mainland slides south. Moisture is embedded in the
easterly flow north of the Gulf of Alaska low from the Yukon
Territory into the Copper River Basin to the Susitna Valley and
south across the North Gulf Coast to the Kenai Peninsula and
Kodiak Island. Another upper level and surface low is about 300
miles south of the Alaska Peninsula heading east toward the Gulf
of Alaska. A large high extends from south of the Western Aleutians
into the northern Bering Sea with extensive cloud cover beneath it.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good synoptic agreement through Saturday, therefore
forecast confidence remains high. The models are in agreement with
the regions of most unstable conditions across the Copper Basin,
particularly along the mountains with some of this instability
extending into the Chugach mountains near Valdez and down to the
Cordova Area today. Unstable conditions are indicated by the
models over the Kilbuck Mountains and west side of the Alaska
Range Wednesday.

Models continue to indicate extremely warm conditions over the
mainland as the ridge builds over the state the next couple of
days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A warm and moist airmass will remain over the forecast area
through Thu. Weak disturbances moving through easterly flow aloft
will interact with this airmass. Afternoon and evening showers and
a few thunderstorms will develop through Thu. Thunderstorms will
be limited to the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley, although
a few may develop over the Kenai mountains on Wed. The greatest
concentration of thunderstorms, however, will be over the
Talkeetna mountains. Temperatures will be quite warm across the
area, especially on Wed. Winds will be light, except for a few
gusts along Turnagain arm, and Small Craft Advisory level winds
associated with the approaching front around Kodiak island.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Upper level ridging will build into Southwest Alaska from the
north Wednesday and Thursday, bringing in some rather hot
temperatures to the region. With an easterly flow regime aloft,
this will also support the threat for afternoon thunderstorm
development, especially along the mountains as instability values
rise in conjunction with a shortwave trough passing through the
flow. This trough is rather weak, however, and quite a bit of dry
air aloft will limit coverage. A low moving into the southeast
Bering Thursday will spark more potential thunderstorms and
afternoon showers along with increasing southeast gap winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Widespread sea stratus and fog will continue over the Bering Sea
as weak winds dominate most of the region. A North Pacific low
will move into the southeast Bering Thursday, spreading 25 to 30
knot southeast winds across the far Eastern Aleutians. Rain and
showers will also accompany this system over that region. There
is also a chance that mainland thunderstorms form and track west
into parts of the Eastern Bering and along the west coast north
of Cape Newenham Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The current pattern characterized by very warm temperatures and
diurnally driven convective activity looks to remain in place
into this weekend and possibly beyond as high pressure over the
southern mainland gradually weakens and the low in the southwest
Gulf of Alaska retrogrades toward the Central Aleutians by the
end of the work week. Forecast confidence begins to decrease by
Sunday as a deep upper trough moves over the north slope. There
is significant model disagreement on how far south the trough
digs over the mainland and thus how much cooling takes place
aloft. The current forecast reflects the 12z guidance, which
keeps the trough to the north but has also begun to hint at the
development of a narrow ridge over the Eastern Bering/Southwest
mainland, with some component of offshore flow developing over
Southcentral Alaska. This would bring a slight cooling trend,
albeit with temperatures likely remaining above seasonal normal
values. Diurnal convection would also remaining possible with the
trough residing just north of the area through early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...CB