Small Craft Advisory 549, NWS Anchorage, AK

343 
FZAK51 PAFC 101158
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110030-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1008 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND EXITS THE GULF TO
THE SOUTH EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY EARLY MON MORNING...AND
PERSISTS INTO MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-110030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-110030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-110030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-110030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-110030-
PORT VALDEZ-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. PATCHY MORNING FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-110030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-110030-
VALDEZ ARM-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-110030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.TODAY...W WIND TO 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-110030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-110030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-110030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-110030-
CHINIAK BAY-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-110030-
MARMOT BAY-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-110030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-110030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY MORNING FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-110030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY MORNING FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-110030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
358 AM AKDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
519 AM AKDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
High pressure remains in control over much of the southern half
of AK this morning, but satellite shows signs of change. The first
notable feature is a closed upper level low tracking along the
Aleutian Chain. This is being ferried towards Bristol Bay by a 100
kt sub-tropical jet. Low clouds, light rain, and some patchy fog
are accompanying it. The other key feature is a fairly sharp
trough dropping in from the Bering Strait region. This is being
aided by a 70 kt finger of the polar front jet. As these two
features track south and east today, they will interact. We can
already see that the upper level low is starting to respond to the
influence of the trough by turning slightly towards the southeast.

Meanwhile, fog and low stratus are concerns once again this
morning over the southern mainland. With the transient ridge of
high pressure still holding on, coastal areas like Cordova and
Kenai will be the most likely to see lower ceilings and
visibilities develop. However, abundant July sunshine should
allow it to burn off quickly this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are starting to lock on to a solution in dealing with the
two features mentioned above. There is good agreement that the
Arctic trough will shunt the upper level low to the southeast into
the Gulf and away from the mainland today. There is a growing
consensus that much of the energy associated with the Arctic
Trough will be "blocked" by the AK Range Sunday before it gets to
the Cook Inlet area. It should still provide enough forcing to
create fairly widespread showers and some isolated thunderstorms.
The higher resolution NAM was used to handle these details and
forecast confidence is above average.

Two other features that models are still struggling to get a
handle on are a weak short-wave moving towards the Kenai Peninsula
today and some easterly flow over the Copper River Basin Mon. The
short-wave over the Gulf should help to trigger some isolated
thunderstorms over the Kenai Peninsula this afternoon and evening.
The other influence it may have will be to bring some gusty
southeast winds into places like the Turnagain Arm and the Copper
River Basin. This forecast package has increased winds this
afternoon in both those locations. The other item that definitely
bears watching is easterly flow on Mon. With a very moist and
moderately unstable airmass, if models start to show any sort of
forcing mechanism, thunderstorms could become rather widespread in
nature.

&&

.Aviation...12z Anchorage TAF...
Southeast Turnagain Arm winds could prove challenging this
afternoon. Models are indicating a weak front could aid in the winds
being a bit stronger than initially thought. And as always, timing
when the winds switch from southwest to southeast will be tricky.
We will continue to refine the exact timing with each TAF update.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A large low pressure system over the Bering Sea will track across
Kodiak Island and into the Gulf today through tonight, bringing
steady rain along with it. As this low progresses eastward, a
couple of shortwaves will rotate through the flow bringing clouds
and showers to the Kenai Peninsula. In fact, with sunshine to
start the day expect there might be just enough instability to
produce afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the Kenai
Mountains, Copper River Basin, and along the Alaska Range and
Talkeetna Mountains bordering the Susitna Valley. The rest of
Southcentral will remain warm and mostly dry with afternoon and
evening convection once again focused near the mountains.

On Sunday the low over the Gulf will quickly exit while a new trough
drops into Southwest Alaska and the Western Gulf. This trough will
continue the threat of showers and thunderstorms along the mountain.
Elsewhere, clouds will be increasing across the region with an increased
chance of showers or (thunderstorms inland) by late in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Shower activity over the Southwest Mainland will briefly taper
off this morning before rainy conditions pick back up by this
afternoon as the upper low crosses the Alaska Peninsula. However,
upsloping flow along the Alaska Peninsula and Alaska Range will
lead to some areas of steadier light rain through this evening. An
upper level shortwave will quickly track through the Southwest
Mainland from Northwest to Southeast on Sunday, bringing another
shot of rain to the area overnight tonight into Sunday. Rain
associated with this upper level wave will taper off from west to
east throughout the day Sunday, with the exception of some
residual showers hung up along the Alaska Range for the beginning
of the week.

Fog will remain a concern over parts of the Southwest Mainland as
rain tapers off and high pressure builds across the region. Fog
development will be most prevalent during the morning and
overnight periods, with a steady push of onshore flow and
advecting the moist air mass from the Bering Sea. Temperatures
will be slower to warm up over the weekend than previously
anticipated, due to the aforementioned steady onshore flow
advecting in a cooler and wetter air mass from the Bering.
Nevertheless, temperatures will continue to warm by a couple
degrees each day through the beginning of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Fog will remain a significant concern through the weekend as high
pressure remains the dominant feature across the Bering Sea. These
conditions are not likely to improve across the Bering as upper
air soundings from PASY and PASN continue to show the subsidence
inversion trapping a lot of moisture in the lowest levels.
Conditions should improve across the northern Bering on Sunday
afternoon as a weak wave moving from the Kamchatka Peninsula to
the northern Bering Sea helps promote enough mixing to help
dissipate fog.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Late on Sunday a trough moving south through Southwest Alaska will
bring some rain to the Alaska Range and stronger winds through
the gaps along the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges. After that, most of
the activity will stay south of the area leaving fair conditions
over the southern mainland through mid week. These fair conditions
will allow for afternoon temperatures into the mid 70s and
afternoon convection, mainly along the mountains. By late week a
front will move in over the southern mainland from the Gulf
bringing the potential for more widespread rain, especially along
the coast, but confidence is low for this time period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...mo
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...liw
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...tp
LONG TERM...dk