Small Craft Advisory 535, NWS Anchorage, AK

276 
FZAK52 PAFC 050043 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051145-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS... A 1007 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND MOVES TO 90 NM WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND LATE TUE
NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INLAND NEAR KIPNUK WED. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 370 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA AT
1003 MB BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-051145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-051145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-051145-
BRISTOL BAY-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-051145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-051145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-051145-
UNALASKA BAY-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-051145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-051145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-051145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-051145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-051145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-051145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-051145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-051145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-051145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-051145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ185-051145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
302 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 AM AKDT MON JUL 4 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The closed upper low over the western Aleutians has opened into a
trough over the Bering this morning. A lobe of this trough extends
southwest into the north Pacific. An upper ridge is over much of
mainland Ak. At the surface, a low is south of the Akpen, a second
low is over the extreme northern Bering and a third is well south
of the Kamchatka peninsula. A section of the thermal trough
persists over the Ak and Aleutian ranges and into the southwest Ak
zones.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement with the pattern change in progress.
A fair amount of residual moisture from various fronts and
easterly waves persists over the mainland. A front associated
with the low south of the Akpen will spread across the Gulf and
affect the coast through Wed, and then linger into Thu. During
the same period an upper low will develop in the Bering upper
trough and dive across the mainland to the Gulf. This will
interact with the thermal trough and induce convection over the
southwest, and to a lesser extent Southcentral. Finally, a new
low forms south of Kamchatka and begins to affect the Aleutians
Wed.

The forecast utilized higher resolution models to capture details
and timing of precipitation and convective events.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Weak flow aloft will become more southerly with a southeast
oriented pressure gradient as a front moves to Kodiak Island today,
but extensive moisture should keep light rain, showers and clouds
around although a few sun breaks are possible. The front and
associated upper trough axis will move into Southcentral Tuesday,
spreading more widespread rain and extensive cloud cover back
into the region extending toward mid-week. Just enough sun breaks
between showers may allow for just enough instability for a slight
chance of a thunderstorm or two over the northern parts of the
Copper River Basin and eastern Alaska Range Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
While a new flow regime sets up for the mainland today, the
sensible weather is much the same in places. The Kuskokwim Delta
will see the biggest changes as clouds and showers move in today.
As a whole the mainland will see increasing clouds and coverage of
showers as the day wears on. Still, the Kuskokwim Valley and
Bristol Bay areas will see the greatest coverage of
afternoon/evening showers with isolated thunderstorms possible for
the Delta/Valley. Tuesday again will see a diurnally enhanced
coverage of rain showers with the continued southwesterly flow
aloft. Clouds will keep temperatures closer to climatology with
highs in the 60s. Winds will be generally light from the southwest
for the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Areas of low clouds and patchy fog encompass much of the Bering
Sea. A trough will dig down from the northwest today spreading
rain from northwest to southeast from today through Tuesday. Winds
will stay generally light from the west-southwest through the
period. A frontal boundary will approach the Western Aleutians
Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
An upper level closed low positioned over the northern Bering Sea
will move eastward into the Gulf by Thursday. This will bring a
showery weather regime to the Bering Sea/Southwest Alaska region,
before spreading into the Southcentral Alaska/Gulf region. The
majority of the precipitation will remain along the northern Gulf
coast as this feature moves through the Gulf before exiting south
of the Panhandle by Friday. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure
over the Bering Western Aleutians strengthens as it extends through
the Southwest Alaska/western Gulf region by Saturday. Therefore,
look for marine layer stratus/fog to dominate the Bering Sea
heading into next weekend. As this ridge builds into the Southwest
Alaska region look for a warming trend due to warm air advection,
and warmer temperatures for the Southcentral Region through next
weekend. Farther upstream, a North Pacific Low tracks into the
central Aleutians by Thursday before dissipating by Friday. The
ECMWF Hi-Resolution/Ensemble Mean were the preferred models of
choice due to consistency through this upcoming week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...PD