Small Craft Advisory 534, NWS Anchorage, AK

057 
FZAK51 PAFC 022307
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-031215-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT. A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 220 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK AT 1015 MB MON
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-031215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-031215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT
ALONG THE COAST. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT ALONG
THE COAST. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-031215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-031215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-031215-
PORT VALDEZ-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT.. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-031215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-031215-
VALDEZ ARM-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS
2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-031215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-031215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-031215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-031215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT W 15 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT W 15 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-031215-
CHINIAK BAY-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-031215-
MARMOT BAY-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-031215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-031215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. N OF ANCHOR POINT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-031215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-031215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
307 PM AKDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT DIMINISHING TO 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

229 
FZAK51 PAFC 031143
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-040045-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO 
THE EASTERN GULF BY THIS AFTERNOON. A 1014 MB LOW 75 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND MON AFTERNOON MOVES TO 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK CITY AT 1013 MB LATE MON NIGHT.


$$

PKZ119-040045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. S OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT E 15 KT TOWARD 
THE COAST. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT E 15 KT TOWARD THE
COAST. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-040045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-040045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-040045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-040045-
PORT VALDEZ-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-040045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-040045-
VALDEZ ARM-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT.

$$

PKZ129-040045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-040045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-040045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. TOWARD THE BARREN ISLANDS...SW
WIND 15 KT EARLY EVENING BECOMING E 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT SE 15 KT TOWARD THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-040045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT DURING THE MORNING.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-040045-
CHINIAK BAY-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-040045-
MARMOT BAY-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-040045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT EARLY EVENING DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS
6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-040045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT N OF
ANCHOR POINT IN THE MORNING. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-040045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-040045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
343 AM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 PM AKDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level low remains over the Gulf of Alaska, but is
beginning to show signs of moving east. The strong short-wave
system on the northwest side of the low that provided last nights
rainfall to south central Alaska is now in southwest Alaska. There
is an upper level low over the southwest Bering Sea as well as the
western and central Aleutians. This low has stalled and is
continuing to weaken. A weather front associated with this low
stretches from about Nikolski northwestward across the Bering
Sea. A ridge of high pressure separates these two low, with the
"col" over the far eastern Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in reasonable agreement on the over-all
pattern. There continue to be some differences in the timing,
location, and strength of various short-waves surrounding the
Gulf low. There are also some minor differences in the handling
of precipitation, especially in regards to convection. Therefore
the forecast confidence is slightly below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sat and Sun)...
Afternoon mountain showers and diurnal sea breezes will be the
story for the weekend. The easterly wave that brought a third to
an inch and half of rain across Southcentral has cleared through
most of the area. The Alaska Range has slowed its westward
progress keeping some rain falling over Kachemak Bay. It will
pivot through this corridor on Sat bringing rain to parts of
Kodiak Island later tonight through the Sat morning hours.
Meanwhile...the rest of the area will remain in very light flow
with generally moist and unstable conditions. With all the recent
rainfall...many places could see some patchy fog or low stratus
develop overnight. But this should dissipate relatively quickly on
Saturday as some sun breaks through. Showers should develop along
the mountains in the afternoon, but with weak steering flow, we
don't expect many of them to make it into valleys. The best
instability remains farther north over the Alaska Range and parts
of the Talkeetna Mountains, so can't rule out an isolated
thunderstorm developing on those higher peaks. Sun looks very
similar to Sat with minimal change to the pattern. The leftover
band of rain near Kodiak should move off into the Gulf making for
drying conditions there.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The Gulf low that has been relatively stationary the last couple
of days will finally push off to the east tonight. This will
change the easterly flow over the area to be more northerly which
will help to diminish showers over the area. The majority of the
rain remaining by the beginning of next week will be in the more
eastern parts of Southwest Alaska like the Alaska and Aleutian
Ranges.

Even though the main upper level low is departing there are still
more shortwaves moving through the area with the strongest one
coming through this evening. It will track south from the
Kuskokwim Valley towards Bristol Bay and will help to initiate
thunderstorms in the area. There will also be enough instability
over the Kuskokwim Valley for possible afternoon thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The broad area of low pressure over the Western Aleutians will
track slowly east over the weekend. It looks to bring light rain
to the Aleutians with some making it to the Pribilof Islands on
Saturday. By the beginning of next week the broad upper level low
will be absorbed into a broad trough extending across the Bering
from the north. This trough will keep light rain over the Bering
and Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The upper level pattern will begin to shift by the end of this
weekend to a more stable pattern, as the upper low shifts further
east and weak high pressure aloft builds in from the west. Thus,
with everything being weak, any precipitation that develops Sunday
over southern mainland Alaska will be mostly scattered and weak.
The persistence of a mid-level unstable layer over much of the
area will result in some diurnal showers mainly along the
mountains.

For the Independence Day holiday, a strong upper level trough will
dig southward across the eastern Bering. Ridging will build east
of it across the Gulf. However, the models are in disagreement
with how quickly the ridge builds, and where the trough axis sets
up over the Bering. Currently, the models agree enough for the
4th of July to suggest a return to southwesterly winds in the
upper levels. Since the disturbances depicted in the models all
remain weak, the weather looks similar to Sunday at this point for
much of mainland Alaska.

Active weather should persist for much of southern Alaska into
midweek as the trough over the Bering moves into mainland Alaska.
However, the model differences and associated forecast
uncertainty only compound with time concerning how quickly and in
what form (open trough or cutoff low), the troughing moves east.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...TP