Small Craft Advisory 516, NWS Anchorage, AK

847 
FZAK51 PAFC 242347
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251245-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1006 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND MOVES TO 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK CITY SAT AFTERNOON AND MAINTAINS STRENGTH...THEN MOVES TO
240 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY AND WEAKENS TO 1010 MB SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-251245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-251245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-251245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-251245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-251245-
PORT VALDEZ-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-251245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-251245-
VALDEZ ARM-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-251245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-251245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ131-251245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-251245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ136-251245-
CHINIAK BAY-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-251245-
MARMOT BAY-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-251245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-251245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-251245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-251245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
347 PM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

937 
FZAK51 PAFC 251139
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-260030-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1005 MB LOW 170 NM EAST OF SITKINAK WILL WEAKEN TO 1011 MB AS
IT MOVES TO 280 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ119-260030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-260030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-260030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-260030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-260030-
PORT VALDEZ-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-260030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-260030-
VALDEZ ARM-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 10 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-260030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-260030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ131-260030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-260030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ136-260030-
CHINIAK BAY-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-260030-
MARMOT BAY-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-260030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-260030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-260030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-260030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
339 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

392 
FZAK51 PAFC 251532 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

UPDATE TO ZONE 127

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA COAST UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK
INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-260315-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1005 MB LOW 170 NM EAST OF SITKINAK WILL WEAKEN TO 1011 MB AS
IT MOVES TO 280 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ119-260315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-260315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-260315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-260315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-260315-
PORT VALDEZ-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-260315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-260315-
VALDEZ ARM-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 10 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-260315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-260315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ131-260315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-260315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ136-260315-
CHINIAK BAY-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-260315-
MARMOT BAY-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-260315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-260315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-260315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-260315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
732 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

983 
FZAK51 PAFC 252347
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261315-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND MOVES SOUTH
AND WEAKENS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

PKZ119-261315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-261315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ121-261315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-261315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-261315-
PORT VALDEZ-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-261315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-261315-
VALDEZ ARM-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-261315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-261315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-261315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-261315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ136-261315-
CHINIAK BAY-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-261315-
MARMOT BAY-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-261315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-261315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-261315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-261315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
347 PM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a negatively tilted upper level low over the eastern
Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska, with its axis running from Saint
Lawrence Island through Bristol Bay to just southwest of Kodiak
Island. There are no well organized fronts with this low, but a
few upper level waves (vorticity maxima) surround it. The
strongest of these is just moving into the northwest Bering Sea
near 180 degrees longitude. Moisture and showers are increasing
across southern Alaska as this low moves east. There is a
flattening and "dirty" ridge over south central Alaska with the
atmosphere destabilizing as it weakens. A large upper level ridge
is building into the western Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement for the short term
portion of the forecast (through Saturday afternoon). The
exception is the Canadian Gem, which handles the low moving into
the Gulf on Saturday a little differently. The other models are
tightly clustered with this feature. There are also naturally some
differences in stability indexes and precipitation forecasts, but
these are minor. Due to the good model agreement, the forecast
confidence is above normal today - except for near normal for
thunderstorm probabilities.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Marginal Red Flag conditions are expected in the Copper River
Basin this afternoon into early evening. All three parameters -
winds, temperatures, and humidities - will be just at critical
levels. On Saturday, winds will be stronger, but temperatures
will be lower and humidities higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Southcentral Alaska will transition to a slightly more active
pattern over the next several days as the ridge shifts to the east
and an upper low drops into the southern Gulf from Y-K Delta
region. This will support intermittent rain along the gulf coast
through Saturday, with generally cloudy and showery conditions
farther inland. Several weak waves embedded in easterly flow over
the mainland coupled with modest instability along the Alaska
Range will promote the possibility for a few thunderstorms for the
next several afternoons over mainly northern portions of the
Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin. The primary limiting factor
for thunderstorm potential will be persistent cloud cover
resulting from broad cyclonic flow and a relatively moist airmass
in place over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Fri and Sat)...
Periods of light rain and some embedded showers are pushing inland
this evening. These are courtesy of the upper level low centered
near Nunivak Island. This low will pivot there as some Arctic
energy drives down its western flank. Then the entire trough will
tilt to a more northwest to southeast orientation. This will
spill some more cold air aloft into far inland portions of the
Kuskokwim Valley and ultimately increase lapse rates. All that to
say there is potential for isolated thunderstorms along the Alaska
Range this evening.

The low dives quickly to the southeast on Fri and should allow
for a decent fetch of overland flow for inland areas. With drier
air moving through expect some more breaks in the clouds and
better instability on Fri. This should allow thunderstorms to
spread out to the Kilbuck Mountains and further south on the
Alaska Range. By Sat, the thermal trough will be firmly in place.
This should bring the best thunderstorm potential yet as we head
into peak heating Sat afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...fri and
sat)...
High pressure will remain in control of the Western Bering while
waves of energy from the Arctic continue to move through the
Eastern Bering. Out west, small craft winds will become light and
variable on Fri as the high sets up. Some westerly flow is helping
to break up some of the fog and stratus this evening, but with
warming 850 mb temperatures it could easily make a rapid return.
By early Sat an extremely weak occluded front limps its way toward
the Western Aleutians. This should bring another chance for some
light rain and switch the winds to easterly.

Over the Eastern Bering a few pieces of robust energy drop in
from the Arctic. These should help the modest westerly winds to
become slightly more gusty from the northwest. They will also
reinforce rain on the Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula. The
first impulse comes in before daybreak on Fri with the next one
mid-day Fri.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The extended forecast begins on Saturday afternoon with a
shower/thunderstorm regime in place across the mainland. Expect
any thunderstorms to mainly be over the Talkeetna Mountains and
Kuskokwim Mountains/Valley, even into Greater Bristol Bay.
Elsewhere precipitation will be showery. Sunday brings the nearly
the same forecast with more shower activity in the northern Gulf
of Alaska extending up into the Copper River Basin. Into next
week, the same pattern holds pretty firm; showers (with a chance
for thunderstorms) will form on the mountains in the
afternoon/evening hours, then move off to the west. Cloud cover
will be highly variable, pulsing with activity each day,
flattening out over night. The pattern should provide opportunity
for periods of sun. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal, with generally light winds. Daily enhanced winds through
favored gaps will persist.

Into the details...a stacked, closed off low will be settling into
the Gulf for most of the extended forecast. Weak ridging over the
mainland, combined with moisture and easterly disturbances from
the low pressure will provide the necessary ingredients for
diurnal mountain based convection. The southwestern mainland will
have the thermal trough extending through the Kuskokwim Valley to
provide low level support in the absence of the upper low. This
general pattern will persist through next week until a stronger
upper ridge tries to build over the mainland on Wednesday, but the
active weather will be between the ridge over the interior and the
low in the gulf, leaving the mainland in an easterly wave pattern.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning 141.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...MTL