Small Craft Advisory 505, NWS Anchorage, AK

949 
FZAK51 PAFC 202322
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211200-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
PERSISTS THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING.

$$

PKZ119-211200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-211200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-211200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-211200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-211200-
PORT VALDEZ-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE WIND 10 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-211200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-211200-
VALDEZ ARM-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-211200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-211200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ131-211200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-211200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-211200-
CHINIAK BAY-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-211200-
MARMOT BAY-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-211200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-211200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-211200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING 
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-211200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
322 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

527 
FZAK51 PAFC 211141
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220045-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1014 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF SITKA DISSIPATES TUE EVENING 150 NM
SOUTH OF SITKA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH WED. A
WEAKENING FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-220045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-220045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-220045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-220045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-220045-
PORT VALDEZ-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-220045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-220045-
VALDEZ ARM-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-220045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-220045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ131-220045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-220045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-220045-
CHINIAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-220045-
MARMOT BAY-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-220045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-220045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-220045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-220045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
407 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Water vapor satellite imagery shows a plume of moisture streaming
from the central Gulf to the northern interior. The upper low
feeding this stream is centered north of the Pribilof islands this
afternoon with an amplified ridge across the eastern Gulf to the
northern Yukon. A stronger wave of energy is rounding the backside
of the Bering low, setting this system in motion.

At the surface, a low is centered over Bethel in the Kuskokwim
Delta with a trough axis extending to the western Gulf. The
associated front which pushed in from the southwest overnight is
swinging ahead across the central gulf. The northward extent of
the boundary stalled along the Kenai on up to the Susitna Valley.
Out west...zonal flow has set up across the Alaska Peninsula and
Bering with weak ridging moving into the western Bering advecting
low clouds and fog.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Only minor changes were made in the afternoon package as models
continue in relatively good agreement with the synoptic change
through Tuesday night. However, updates may be needed as the
upper level pattern moves at a slightly different pace than the
surface reflection, which may impact timing of precipitation and
wind speeds across the southern mainland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Rain will end tonight and Sunday from west to east followed by a
more showery regime. Winds will steadily decrease in most areas
tonight as the front departs.  Moisture left over from today's
front and colder temperatures aloft will be the focus for showers
Monday afternoon, especially along higher terrain. A slight chance
of thunderstorms comes with these conditions but a lack of other
variables leaves it at a slight chance for now. On Tuesday a warmer
air mass settles in along with a better chance for thunderstorms,
mainly along the Talkeetna Mountains and Copper River Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper trough over Southwest Alaska will continue to push
through the area bringing rain with it. By Monday afternoon it
will have moved off to the east and by Monday night ridging will
move over the area from the west pushing out the rest of the rain.
The ridging and clear skies will bring back warmer temperatures
to Southwest Alaska Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Ridging is building in over the Western Bering keeping most of
the rain over the Eastern Bering with a shortwave that is moving
through from the north. The ridge will slowly track to the east
and make it over the Eastern Bering Monday afternoon. Behind the
ridge, a North Pacific system will track towards the Western
Aleutians and will bring rain to the area by Monday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning Tuesday evening, the overall pattern will begin to
gradually shift over to a more dry and slightly warmer offshore
flow pattern for Southcentral, as the upper level trough over the
gulf shifts further eastward Tuesday and ridging builds in over
the Southern Mainland behind it. On the western periphery of the
ridge however, the pattern will switch to an onshore flow over the
western coast. This will bring more stable conditions and the
potential for fog to form over parts of the Kuskokwim Delta and
Bristol Bay area during the overnight hours Tuesday into
Wednesday. Some isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop
Tuesday afternoon/evening over the Copper River Basin as a weak
upper level disturbance tracks over the area, coinciding with peak
heating, residual moisture available at the surface, and
increasing instability.

Models remain in good agreement through Tuesday afternoon, then
begin to struggle with the track of a front and its associated
low crossing the Western/Central Aleutians Tuesday evening, and
into the Eastern Bering by Thursday. The models do hint at this
system transitioning to the Gulf by the end of the week, but the
lack of details on timing and positioning will keep forecast
confidence lower for the time being. The end result will likely
be rain and showers to much of the Aleutians and Bering through
Tuesday, and diminishing shower activity to the mainland through
Thursday. From Thursday into the weekend, rain and showers will
move back into the Southern Mainland from West to East, as the
weakening Bering low pushes eastward and inland over the area
through Saturday morning.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...TP