Small Craft Advisory 490, NWS Anchorage, AK

960 
FZAK51 PAFC 161830 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

UPDATED ALL ZONES

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170715-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE TO THE EAST GULF
TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-170715-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-170715-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-170715-
RESURRECTION BAY-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
1 FOOT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-170715-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-170715-
PORT VALDEZ-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND TO 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-170715-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-170715-
VALDEZ ARM-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-170715-
PASSAGE CANAL-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-170715-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-170715-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-170715-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-170715-
CHINIAK BAY-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FT BUILDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-170715-
MARMOT BAY-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-170715-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-170715-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-170715-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-170715-
KACHEMAK BAY-
1030 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a ridge of high pressure over Southern Alaska with its
axis oriented north-south over Southwest Alaska. at the surface
there is a trough along the Gulf Coast with high pressure inland
creating offshore flow, though the gradient is easing and winds
are diminishing. There is a large upper low over the Western
Bering Sea. A frontal system associated with this upper low is
developing south of the Central Aleutians and moving rapidly
toward the northeast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in reasonably good agreement through the
short term portion of the forecast (Friday afternoon). There are
still some minor differences on how they handle the front moving
into the Gulf on Friday. As this system weakens and the front
breaks apart, the various models all handle the surface low just a
bit differently. Due to the weakness of this feature, it
shouldn't create too much of a problem with the forecast.
Therefore the forecast confidence is a little above normal today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Models are in good agreement that the northerly offshore wind
pattern will slowly transition over the next 48 hours into a more
south to southwesterly onshore wind pattern. This will occur as
the first in a series of weather systems begins to move toward the
region from the southwest late Thursday into Friday. Models are
not in exact agreement as to how when and how fast this wind shift
occurs, especially along the North Gulf Coast later Thursday into
Thursday night, with the NAM the quickest with such a change
across the Cook Inlet region.

As the front approaches Friday, these onshore winds will increase
especially through the terrain gaps. Through the Copper River
Basin, the combination of sunny skies and unstable conditions
will allow for strong mixing of winds down to the surface.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through Thursday as
the ridge continues across Southcentral. Conditions will be near
Red Flag levels this evening and then improve on Thursday across
the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin as winds begin to
subside as winds diminish. Winds will be fairly light on
Thursday, but minimum humidities continue to be rather low at
around 20 percent in the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin.

By Friday, southerly winds will increase from the coast to the
interior as a strong high pressure ridge builds along the North
Gulf Coast. With full sun, hot temperatures, and southerly dry
downslope flow off the Chugach Range contributing to unstable
conditions, critical fire weather conditions are likely Friday
afternoon and extending well into the evening for the Copper River
Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Significantly warmer and sunnier conditions have developed as
expected, especially across interior areas. The onshore flow took
longer to give way to offshore flow than expected, and as a
result there seems to be a bit more low-level moisture lingering
around the area than anticipated. In fact the low cloudiness
never really burned off along the Delta coastline and flow is
already becoming onshore again. Clouds and eventually rain will
begin to move back in from the Bering sea by Thursday morning,
but will take a while to penetrate all the way to the interior
zones like the lower Kuskokwim Valley. Thus, interior areas will
see another day of hot and dry weather tomorrow. by Friday clouds
will overspread the entire area with the general weather pattern
this weekend looking cloudy with periods of steady rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Most of the region is under the influence of an upper Low with
weak pressure gradients at the lower levels of the atmosphere.
This is resulting in a very typical pattern of widespread marine
fog/Stratus across the area. A weak front is stalling along the
far eastern Bering today, but will be reinvigorated by a
shortwave and associated surface low currently rounding the base
of the longwave trough and moving toward the central and eastern
Aleutians. This will bring another round of rain to the eastern
half of the Aleutians that quickly moves off to the northeast by
Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Models have continued to trend weaker with the frontal system
rotating from southwest to southcentral Alaska Friday night and
Saturday. This makes sense both given the strength of the upper
level ridge that the front is trying to push through and with the
parent low lifting north and away through the Bering Strait and
shearing the front apart between that and the weakening trough
tracking into the western Gulf. The net results will be lighter
and spottier precipitation out of the initial front...especially
the further inland, as well as the front stalling out and
dissipating over the Susitna Valley Saturday before it can push
into the Copper River Basin. Fire weather wise this will mean an
additional rather dry and windy day for the Copper Basin on
Saturday.

The frontal system tracking through the Aleutians Saturday, into
southwest Alaska Saturday night into southcentral Alaska Sunday
will bring quite a bit more rain with it as well as strengthening
southeasterly winds. Coastal regions will likely receive at least
inch or two of rain with widespread amounts between a quarter and
half of inch possible inland. With downsloping south to southeasterly
flow continuing in the Copper River Basin precipitation amounts in
the rain shadowed lowland areas there will be reduced to between
five hundredths and a tenth of an inch.  Rain will continue over
much of the area Sunday night then change over to showers Monday.
While shower coverage will gradually diminish from west to east
through midweek...showers will be slow to end completely due
persistent upper level troughing lingering over southern Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...Fire Weather Watch Zone 141.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AD
LONG TERM...JR