Small Craft Advisory 488, NWS Anchorage, AK

610 
FZAK51 PAFC 152350
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161230-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE TO THE EAST GULF THU
NIGHT. A 1007 MB LOW NEAR SAND POINT THU AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO
100 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY FRI AFTERNOON AT 1013 MB.

$$

PKZ119-161230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-161230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-161230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-161230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-161230-
PORT VALDEZ-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-161230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-161230-
VALDEZ ARM-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-161230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT DEVELOPING NEAR WHITTIER
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-161230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-161230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-161230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-161230-
CHINIAK BAY-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-161230-
MARMOT BAY-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-161230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-161230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-161230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-161230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
350 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A dominant high amplitude ridge has developed across the northern
to eastern Bering Sea and is beginning to build eastward across
the western Alaska Mainland. There is a trough right on the front
end of the ridge which is hanging up along the Western Alaska Range.
A separate ridge centered over the Yukon is also building southwestward
into Southcentral and preventing the trough from dropping southward.
There are almost no clouds associated with the trough with anticyclonic
flow and subsidence evident in water vapor imagery. The main affect
of this is to delay the ridge moving overhead of Southcentral and
thus delaying the warmest temperatures.

However, the surface and low level ridge have moved farther east
into Interior Alaska. With lower pressure over the Gulf this has
induced gusty northerly winds across much of Southcentral.
Compressional warming is leading to rapidly warming temperatures
region-wide. Meanwhile, a strong onshore push of marine air from
the northern Bering Sea has advected stratus inland across the
Kuskokwim Delta with mid level clouds across much of the Kuskokwim
Delta and Bristol Bay areas. The low level flow will shift toward
offshore later today as the ridge shifts eastward which will help
break up many of these clouds.

Out west, upstream of the high amplitude ridge, a large weakening
low is drifting northward toward the far western Aleutian islands.
The more significant feature is an east-west oriented warm front
which is lifting northward across the Aleutians and into the
Bering Sea. A lot of warm, moist air (as seen in the Blended TPW
Satellite product) is combining with strong low level convergence
and upper level diffluence to produce areas of moderate to heavy
rain along this front.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Numerical guidance remains in excellent agreement with handling
of large scale features over the next couple days. There are
minor differences with a weak low transiting near the southern
Alaska Peninsula on Thursday. Prefer the more consistent southerly
track of this low as per the ECMWF and NAM solutions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will continue to build in from the west through
Wednesday night and settle over southern Alaska on Thursday. Some
moisture and showers will continue through Wednesday morning over
the Wrangell and Saint Elias Mountains as the southern periphery
of the Yukon high is slow to drift south. Low level offshore flow
will continue to be strong through Wednesday morning, then relax
Wednesday afternoon during the peak heating.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through Thursday as
the ridge builds from the west. Conditions will be near Red Flag
levels this evening and again on Wednesday across the Susitna
Valley and Copper River Basin. Also, localized areas near the
coast, such as Seward, may approach critical conditions as gusty
winds combine with warm temperatures late this afternoon and early
this evening. This situation is being closely monitored and
products will be updated as needed. Winds will be fairly light on
Thursday, but minimum humidities will continue be rather low,
around 20 percent in the Susitna Valley and Copper River basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A change in the weather pattern is underway as warm and dry
conditions will be rapidly moving into the area and persisting for
the next few days. The widespread marine stratus that hung around
the Kuskokwim Delta all day will dissipate in a hurry this
evening as flow becomes offshore. The Alaska Peninsula south of
King Salmon will see enough of an onshore component to the winds
that the low marine clouds will likely move back in this evening,
but all other areas will see clear skies and ample sunshine
tomorrow and for most of thursday as well. The big story is that
temperatures will rise to their warmest of the season (so far) at
most places across the region...with widespread 70s and even some
breaking the 80 degree mark in the lower/middle Kuskokwim Valley.
By Thursday afternoon a front moving in from the Bering will stall
along the coast and a Low will form near the Alaska
Peninsula...returning clouds and rain chances to the coastline by
Thursday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An Upper Low over the Western Aleutians will slowly transit to the
Northern Bering through Thursday afternoon. An associated front
currently over the Central Bering will continue to stretch out and
weaken tonight, with rain having a hard time remaining intact much
farther east than the Pribilofs by Wednesday morning. The western
half of the Bering/Aleutians will remain under showery but mostly
benign conditions through the end of the week. Meanwhile the
eastern half will see drier and more stable conditions, which will
likely mean the continuation of some form of low clouds/fog.

By Thursday the remnants of the decaying front will develop into a
new Low pressure system near the Alaska Peninsula. While most of
the associated rainfall will move into the mainland for the end of
the week, the eastern Aleutians will see a period of rain
Wednesday Night and Thursday as the storm starts to take shape.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Hot and sunny weather through the remainder of the week will
result in accelerated snow and glacier melt runoff across
Southcentral Alaska. The Matanuska River is already near
summertime high water levels and may see some additional increases
over the next few days before cooler conditions move back into the
area for the weekend. People with interests on or along the
Matanuska River should prepare for high water conditions through
the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A high amplitude negatively tilted upper level ridge stretching
from the Chukchi Sea across mainland Alaska and over the Gulf will
shift gradually east Thursday night and Friday. A front
associated with an area of low pressure over the Bering and a
second low along the Alaska Peninsula will weaken as it rotates
into Southwest Alaska and over Kodiak Island on Friday. With the
influence of the strong ridge, clouds and precipitation will be
significantly slower spreading into Southcentral Alaska bringing
one more day of hot and dry weather.

Gap winds, increasing Friday afternoon and evening as a surface
ridge builds into the northern Gulf, will increase fire weather
concerns...especially given that the increasing winds will be
following a prolonged hot, dry spell with an unstable atmosphere
in place. The combination of the strongest winds and lowest
relative humidities will occur as south to southeasterly winds
initially push into the in the Copper River Basin Friday afternoon
and evening, making this the most likely location and time period
to potentially warrant a fire weather watch as the time period
gets closer. While the initial period of low humidities will be
shorter during the onset of southeasterly winds through gaps in
the Chugach Mountains, channeled areas such as Turnagain Arm and
the Knik River Valley as well as the Anchorage Bowl, Eagle River
Valley and Southern Susitna Valley will also bear watching.

With current forecast model runs keeping available mid level
moisture further north as well as the axis of strongest
instability along the interior thermal trough...the threat of high
based thunderstorm looks significantly diminished for Friday
afternoon and evening. While an isolated thunderstorm or two is
still possible along the mountains surrounding the northern
Susitna Valley and northern Copper River Basin, the spatial coverage
of any storms should be rather sparse.

Moisture will increase somewhat on Saturday as the weakening
remnants of the initial frontal system rotate into Southcentral
Alaska. A stronger system tracking tracking into the Aleutians
Friday night and Saturday will push into Southwest Alaska Saturday
night and Southcentral Sunday bringing more substantial moisture
with it.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AD
LONG TERM...JR