Small Craft Advisory 486, NWS Anchorage, AK

464 
FZAK51 PAFC 142248
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151145-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS 
THE GULF ON THU.

$$

PKZ119-151145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-151145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-151145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-151145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-151145-
PORT VALDEZ-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-151145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-151145-
VALDEZ ARM-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-151145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. NEAR
WHITTIER...GUSTS TO 25 KT BY LATE EVENING AND TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-151145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-151145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-151145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-151145-
CHINIAK BAY-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-151145-
MARMOT BAY-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-151145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-151145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-151145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-151145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
537 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A large upper level low which has been sitting over the Gulf is
now exiting to the south and east. Cyclonic flow with weak
embedded waves is still producing fairly widespread cloud cover
and some showers, primarily over the eastern half of Southcentral,
including the Copper River Basin and Prince William Sound. A
short-wave ridge is moving over the Susitna Valley and Cook Inlet
region leading to decreasing clouds through this area. Upstream,
an upper trough is elongating as it crosses western Alaska.
Southwest Alaska is at the tail end of this trough with just some
very light and spotty rain showers headed inland across the
Kuskokwim Delta. Upstream of this trough, an upper ridge dominates
the Bering Sea. This ridge will build eastward behind the western
Alaska trough and lead to much drier and warmer conditions across
the southern mainland of Alaska for the remainder of the week.
Lastly, a weakening vertically stacked low and east-west oriented
warm front over the North Pacific are lifting northward toward
the Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model guidance is in excellent agreement over the next couple days
and forecast confidence is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level low that has been in the Gulf of Alaska the last
few days will exit to the southeast tonight. This will usher in a
drying trend to south central Alaska. Some lingering showers are
still expected this evening over the mountains and the Copper
River basin, and possibly isolated thunderstorms. An strong upper
level ridge will build in from the west into Wednesday afternoon.
Low level offshore flow will increase, with winds picking up
through gaps in the terrain. A weak trough over central Alaska
will slow down the drying a bit on Tuesday, but by Tuesday night
and Wednesday the offshore flow will be quite strong for this
time of year. The results of all of this is the begging of a
pattern of warm, dry, and locally breezy conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The building ridge across Southcentral on Tuesday and Wednesday
will bring elevated fire weather concerns across South Central
Alaska. Conditions may be near Red Flag levels late Tuesday and
again on Wednesday across the Susitna Valley and Copper River
Basin. Localized areas near the coast such as Seward and Whittier
may approach critical conditions as well.

For the Susitna Valley, temperatures and winds will approach
critical levels, but conditions probably will not dry out quick
enough. For the Copper river basin, temperatures will not be
quite warm enough on Tuesday to reach Red Flag criteria, though
winds will be quite breezy and humidities will be low. For both
areas on Wednesday, temperatures will be warmer and humidities
even lower, but winds look to subside in the afternoon during the
peak heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A showery regime will hang around for one more day before a much
drier, and then a warmer air mass comes around on Tuesday. Today the
forecast starts out with a strong shortwave trough withing the
larger cyclonic circulation taking up most of southern Alaska. The
steady rain over the Kuskokwim Delta will continue this morning,
mainly west of Bethel before tapering off this afternoon. The rest
of the mainland will see afternoon showers and thunderstorms
associated with the cold air aloft. The best chance for thunder to
accompany showers will be in eastern portions of the Bristol Bay
zone. That system exits to the east tonight and will be replaced
with a northwesterly flow regime aloft. Monday night into Tuesday a
disturbance in this flow will bring a chance of rain to northern
areas of the mainland. High pressure builds in on Tuesday bringing
much drier and warmer conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
One front weakens over the Bering today, and another approaches.
The Eastern Aleutians will see spotty rain today as the front
overhead falls apart. Most of the Bering will see generally weak
westerly flow with some areas of fog. An east-west frontal
boundary will stretch across the north Pacific, and will spread
over the Western and Central Aleutians on Monday afternoon while
weakening. A triple point low pressure system will develop on this
front late Monday evening, affecting the Central and Eastern
Aleutians with steady moderate rainfall.

&&.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The large upper level ridge over western Alaska will shift east
with its axis becoming centered over southcentral Alaska Wednesday
Night and Thursday. While this progression will continue to
lighten the general winds, it will also bring another hot and dry
day for Thursday. Additionally with the ridge axis directly
overhead night time humidity recoveries will steadily fall Wednesday
and Thursday nights...particularly at mid slopes and higher. The
ridge axis will continue to shift east and begin breaking down on
Friday with the potential for some significant fire weather
concerns to develop...especially given that this breakdown of the
ridge will follow multiple days of drying.

Precipitation spreading into southwest Alaska will reach Kodiak
Island on Friday but largely be stopped in its eastward
progression by the north to south running portion of the Alaska
Range. Mid level moisture however, will begin to filter into the
northern Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin and combined with
increasing instability will bring the potential for high based
fairly dry thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.
Additionally, a surface ridge building into the Gulf of Alaska
will increase south to southeasterly winds in the Copper River
Basin with a rather warm and dry air mass in place.

The remnants of the initial frontal system which attempted push
through the ridge, will reach southcentral Alaska Friday night or
Saturday. Moisture will continue to increase through the weekend
as the flow aloft turns southwesterly and increases the chances
for wetting rain out of subsequent systems.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ET
LONG TERM...JR