Small Craft Advisory 485, NWS Anchorage, AK

314 
FZAK51 PAFC 141146
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150030-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND AND WESTERN GULF.

$$

PKZ119-150030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT W WIND 20 KT S OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-150030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-150030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-150030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-150030-
PORT VALDEZ-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 20 KT BY
MID MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-150030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE WIND 30 KT BY MID MORNING. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-150030-
VALDEZ ARM-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TODAY...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 20 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-150030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-150030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-150030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-150030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-150030-
CHINIAK BAY-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-150030-
MARMOT BAY-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-150030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.


$$

PKZ139-150030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-150030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-150030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
346 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W WIND 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

464 
FZAK51 PAFC 142248
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151145-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN
GULF COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS 
THE GULF ON THU.

$$

PKZ119-151145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-151145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-151145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-151145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-151145-
PORT VALDEZ-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-151145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-151145-
VALDEZ ARM-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-151145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. NEAR
WHITTIER...GUSTS TO 25 KT BY LATE EVENING AND TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-151145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-151145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-151145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-151145-
CHINIAK BAY-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-151145-
MARMOT BAY-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-151145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-151145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-151145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-151145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
248 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 AM AKDT MON JUN 13 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern of the atmosphere aloft is one of transition as one
system moves away and another approaches. The upper low pressure
in the gulf responsible for showers the past few days is pulling
away, leaving the southcentral in weak flow aloft. However, the
most noticeable feature on water vapor satellite this morning is
an upper trough vigorously digging over the Seward Peninsula.
Upper level ridging is poking into the Bering Sea while an closed
upper low pressure is spinning south of the Western Aleutians. The
jet stream is south of the chain.

A batch of rain is moving off the Talkeetnas going southward and
looks to impact the Anchorage Bowl this morning. Otherwise, mainly
scattered showers over the remainder of southcentral with
plentiful cloud cover left over from the previous system.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Synoptically guidance is in great agreement with the upcoming
pattern aloft. The ECMWF handles the incoming trough a little
differently than the rest, cutting it off after it moves overhead,
which doesn't seem plausible at this point. Otherwise the large
scale pattern is well agreed upon. Smaller scale details with
shortwaves rotating around the departing low are a little messy
but the overall theme today is instability driven showers along
the mountains, aided by any waves in the upper trough. The western
domain preferred the GFS while the eastern domain used the NAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The low in the Gulf of Alaska will continue to move southeast and
stall, as a ridge continues to build in from the west. This will
lead to a decrease in shower activity across Southcentral Alaska
for today as well as less cloud cover and higher temperatures.
Across the Copper River Basin and along the Talkeetna mountains,
partial clearing could provide enough instability for isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

Forecast confidence remains high that very warm and dry conditions
will develop this week as the ridge builds across the interior by
Tuesday. Strong northerly offshore flow will develop tonight as
the pressure gradient tightens between the building ridge and the
low that holds in the northern Gulf. This pattern sets up compressional
warming off the mountains preventing sea breezes from developing
which will lead to the hottest temperatures of the summer area-
wide.

.FIRE WEATHER...
The building ridge across Southcentral on Tuesday and Wednesday
will bring elevated fire weather concerns with possible Red Flag
conditions developing late Tuesday across the Susitna Valley and
Copper River Basin. There is still some uncertainty on how
quickly temperatures rise due to models struggling with handling
the low and associated front currently moving into the northwest
coast. Red Flag criteria will be closely monitored and products
will be updated as needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper trough moving across the interior may clip northern
portions of the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley with a few showers
today before a stout upper level ridge begins to build over the
southwest mainland from the Eastern Bering on Tuesday. This will
yield a warming and drying which will continue into the middle of
the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A front lifting northward into the Bering will bring rain and Small
Craft Advisory level winds to the Western and Central Aleutians
through tonight. The front will gradually weaken as it encounters
the ridge to the east, with mainly low clouds and fog prevailing
over the Eastern Bering through Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the long term period Tuesday evening, there will be a
low across the western Bering Sea with a shortwave ridge axis
over the eastern Bering. An arctic trough will be centered north
of the North Slope with a piece of shortwave energy from that
trough digging into the Gulf of Alaska. Northerly offshore flow
will be in progress, with dry conditions across all of southern
Alaska. Temperatures will warm dramatically Wednesday and
Thursday, reaching the highest values of the year thus far across
most locations with widespread 70s and some localized inland 80s.
Even coastal locations on Wednesday will see rather high
temperatures as offshore flow inhibits sea breezes until late in
the afternoon. The front associated with the Bering low will
weaken and wash out across the eastern Bering Wednesday night with
the ridge building eastward into Southcentral. By Friday, a
secondary front will begin to make eastward progress with
gradually cooling temperatures as the ridge over Southcentral
weakens and moves into the Yukon. There is uncertainty with how
strong and fast this front will be with the ECMWF and Canadian
GDPS favoring slower solutions with the GFS about half a day
faster. For now, a WPC ensemble approach was favored to account
for that uncertainty. Either way, expect more precipitation
chances and cooling temperatures for the weekend and lasting into
early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LIW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...JA