Small Craft Advisory 461, NWS Anchorage, AK

252 
FZAK51 PAFC 052300
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-061130-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW 130 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT BAY WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR
YAKUTAT BAY LATE TONIGHT. A 1002 MB LOW OVER INTERIOR ALASKA MON
MORNING MOVES SOUTH NEAR SITKINAK TUE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF MON MORNING
AND BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH TUE EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-061130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-061130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-061130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-061130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-061130-
PORT VALDEZ-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-061130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-061130-
VALDEZ ARM-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-061130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-061130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-061130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-061130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-061130-
CHINIAK BAY-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-061130-
MARMOT BAY-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-061130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-061130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-061130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-061130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An active weather pattern is beginning to take shape across the
southern mainland this afternoon. The principal feature of note is
a well-developed disturbance over the central Gulf of Alaska. This
feature is moving north along the western edge of a southerly jet
streak pointed from the Northeast Pacific across the Panhandle. A
weak mid-level shortwave is located over the Chugach Range, and is
responsible for the light shower activity across the main
population centers from Anchorage south to Homer today.

To the north and west of the Alaska Range, an upper trough
extends south from the Arctic south into Southwest Alaska.
The mid-level boundary associated with this feature is located
along the lower Yukon River valley, and will be the primary focus
mechanism for convection this afternoon into early evening, with
terrain-induced convection expected across the remainder of
Southwest Alaska.

Over the Bering, a weak front is located near the Western and
Central Aleutians, with weak flow otherwise across much of the
region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to be in good synoptic agreement through early
next week. The main difference arises in the track of an Arctic
trough pushing southward into southern Alaska Sunday night through
Monday night, which leads to some uncertainty in the
precipitation forecast. The GFS is the most aggressive with the
trough with respect to producing more QPF over parts of
Southcentral Alaska, tracking the upper level trough energy
further east over the Alaska Range than the NAM and the ECMWF. As
a result, the GFS solution favors heavier precipitation over
Southcentral than the NAM and the EC solutions. The NAM/EC
solution, however, also results in a highly favorable setup for
scattered thunderstorms along the western slopes of the Alaska
and Aleutian Ranges of Southwest Alaska Monday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Gusty southeast winds through east-west gaps along and out of the
Chugach Range will be the main fire weather threat through the
overnight tonight into early Sunday. With thunderstorm activity
primarily confined to interior areas of Southwest Alaska through
Sunday with the greatest threat along the thermal trough that
drops south and east toward the western slopes of the Alaska and
Aleutian Ranges.

Models diverge a bit for Monday, with the NAM and EC models
depicting the Arctic trough dropping south to the west of the
Alaska Range, while the GFS drops it south over the Alaska Range.
These differences will impact the convective precipitation
forecast quite a bit for the areas just west of the Alaska and
Aleutian Ranges, as well as wetting rain chances for much of
Southcentral. The NAM/EC solution would result in an increased
probability for scattered thunderstorms along the western slopes,
while the GFS would result in less convection and confined to the
highest peaks, resulting in minimal impacts in terms of lightning.
However, the GFS would also likely result in higher precipitation
amounts across much of Southcentral. The Monday convective
forecast for the afternoon package will lean heaviest on the NAM
and EC models, but with some deference to the GFS. The LAL
coverage may need to be adjusted upward in future forecast
packages if the NAM/EC solutions appear to become more likely.

Fuels are not deemed to be sufficiently dry to support Red Flag
conditions with respect to fire starts produced from numerous
lightning strikes, but this will be revisited through coordination
with AICC as this potential event approaches.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Strong south to southeasterly gap winds will continue through the
evening hours then begin to gradually diminish overnight as the
surface ridge along the northern Gulf Coast weakens. Sunday should
be fairly quiet weather wise as winds continue to lighten leaving
isolated to scattered showers the main issue. With the atmosphere
stabilizing slightly the potential for any isolated afternoon or
evening thunderstorms will be diminished and limited to the
interior mountains.

A shortwave diving down from the north Sunday night and Monday
will bring southwesterly flow, cooler conditions and widespread
wetting rain to much of south central Alaska. The Susitna Valley,
Anchorage Bowl and northern Kenai Peninsula look well positioned
to receive between a half and three quarters of an inch of rain.
Precipitation will initially spread into the Susitna Valley
Sunday night and reach the Anchorage Bowl and Kenai Peninsula
Monday Morning. Additionally snow levels will fall down to the
3000 to 4000 foot range with 6 to 10 inches possible up at higher
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The Southwest Alaska region will continue with the diurnal showers
and thunderstorms through Sunday. As the thermal trough moves farther
northward the best chances for thunderstorms will occur over the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley during the afternoon/evening hours through
the weekend. Since the storm motion is northeasterly, look for
some of the thunderstorms to track over the Kuskokwim/Ahklun
Mountains this evening. By Sunday the storm motion will become
more northerly, and an upper level trough will be digging down
from the north. The best chances for thunderstorms will be over
the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, and along the Alaska Range. Meanwhile,
the Kuskokwim Delta will see drier conditions as high pressure
builds into the region. Temperature-wise, highs will warm well
into the upper 60s on Tuesday as surface high pressure and upper
level ridging build through the lower Kuskokwim Valley and delta.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The frontal boundary over the Western/Central Aleutians continues
to weaken as a weak low forms just north of Adak through the
weekend. The Bering Sea will remain under easterly flow with
increasing cloud cover. The high pressure system positioned off
eastern Siberia will remain, and will help the low stratus/fog
through the northern Bering Sea to persist. Patchy fog will form
over the Kuskokwim Bay region with areas of fog developing along
the coastline after midnight tonight. Meanwhile, the Bristol Bay
region will transition to southwesterly flow, which will enhance
the chances for marine layer stratus/fog by early Monday morning.
The low pressure system previously located north of Adak will
move near Dutch Harbor by Sunday evening. This will bring
increasing cloud cover to the Eastern Bering/Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Models were in excellent agreement Mon night into Tue with
remnants of the Arctic trough dissipating along the western flanks
of the Alaska and Aleutian ranges. This will keep southeast flow
along the Gulf coast, with rain along the coast and diminishing
showers over the Alaska and Aleutian ranges. A low south of the
Aleutians will spread rain over the western islands as a front
crosses the area from the south.

From Day 4 models show some drift, but the EC and Canadian have
similar development, and with the ensemble approach of WPC, a
reasonable solution becomes apparent. Weak ridging will develop
over the mainland Tue through Thu as the Aleutian low remains to
the west with a front draping across the Bering. A triple point
low will develop over the eastern Aleutians on Thu that reaches
the Gulf Sat through Sun, bringing with it fronts that affect Southwest
Ak and Kodiak island. The original Aleutian low follows in the
path of the triple point and migrates to Kodiak island by the end
of the weekend.

This will keep showers over interior mountains of mainland Ak
through midweek. Showers will then increase through the weekend as
the triple point and associated front move across the region. Over
the Bering and Aleutians, rain and showers will accompany the
original and triple point lows and associated fronts as they
successively migrate to the east during the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD/JW
LONG TERM...DS