Small Craft Advisory 441, NWS Anchorage, AK

259 
FZAK51 PAFC 272330
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-281245-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...THEN PUSHES SOUTH. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE SAT NIGHT...THEN DRIFTS OVER
KODIAK ISLAND BY SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-281245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-281245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-281245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-281245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-281245-
PORT VALDEZ-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-281245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-281245-
VALDEZ ARM-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-281245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-281245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-281245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-281245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-281245-
CHINIAK BAY-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-281245-
MARMOT BAY-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-281245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-281245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-281245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-281245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
330 PM AKDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
421 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A low centered just north of Shemya is currently impacting much
of the western and central Bering, bringing widespread light rain
and gusty winds. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge continues to push
eastward into the Alaska Mainland. Beneath this ridge a broad
stratus deck covered the Bering and portions of the Southwest
mainland this morning. However, this afternoon offshore flow is
starting to become established across much of the southwest and as
a result much of the stratus deck is breaking up into sunny skies.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in fairly good agreement in the short term as they
continue to lock onto one general solution as the upper level
ridge pushes northward into the alaska mainland. Models become
more uncertain towards Sunday as an upper level wave pushes
westward into the eastern portion of Southcentral. As a result,
there is some uncertainty in the timing, intensity and/or
location of shower development in Southcentral on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)..
An amplifying upper level ridge axis is building into
Southcentral, and will continue to build into the state through
Saturday. This will allow for warming temperatures and decreasing
cloud cover along with drier conditions. A weak northerly offshore
flow will also result in breezy northerly winds tonight through
Saturday, strongest toward the Alaska Range and into the Copper
Basin. Sea breezes will come in during the later afternoons along
the coast, moderating temperatures somewhat, but it will still be
above average region wide.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
There remains very good confidence that ridging building into the
area will bring clearing skies and warming temperatures to the
southwest Mainland into this weekend. This will provide a strong
enough cap to prevent any convective showers from developing
through Saturday, even along the mountains. Otherwise
temperatures will remain seasonable with relatively weak offshore
winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
Much of the Bering Sea will move into a quieter pattern into this
weekend as a weakening low over the western Bering moves towards
eastern Siberia and is replaced with weak high pressure. This will
leave keep winds below gale force though Saturday throughout the
region, with only a chance for showers and patchy fog.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
On Day 3, models have come into slightly better agreement with
the handling of the low over the far Western Aleutians Islands
with the models generally converging on a forecast pressure in the
mid to upper 970 mb range but with a wide spread in actual
position. Most models are clustering the low further to the west
near Shemya with the EC developing the low and moving it further
eastward near 180. The 12Z EC appears to be an outlier, thus the
Day 3 forecast for the Western domain uses an average position
south-southeast of Shemya with a low-end Gale force front moving
into the Western Aleutians on Day 3 into Day 4.

Over mainland Alaska for Day 3, most of the area will generally
see warm and dry conditions. Isolated showers are expected along
the Aleutian Range in the Southwest and over much of the Copper
River Basin. The ridge currently over Southwest Alaska today will
migrate northeastward with its center over the Seward Peninsula,
thus putting most of Southern Alaska in northeasterly flow.
Simultaneously, an upper level wave is expected to moves southward
over the Copper River Basin and southward into the Gulf side of
the Kenai Peninsula. This wave will have some 850-500 mb moisture,
so isolated showers are possible over the area. The atmosphere
over the region is expected to be somewhat unstable with LI values
of 0 to -2 and CAPE values in the 200-400 J/kg range, the chance
for some very isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Copper
River Basin and portions of the Kenai Peninsula Sunday afternoon.
This will bear watching in further forecast packages for travelers
through the Copper River Basin and with an increase in outdoor
recreation over the Memorial Day weekend.

Over Southwest Alaska, while CAPE and LI values appear to
be conductive for thunderstorms over portions of the Bristol Bay
region on Sunday, there is a lack of upper level support, thus at
this time thunderstorms seem unlikely.

For the remainder of the forecast, models diverge even further
with the North American models generally showing a similar
solution and the 12Z EC remaining the outlier. The extended
forecast went heavy to the WPC forecast, which as usual was a
blend of EC/NAEFS ensembles. In general, expect warm conditions
through the extended with rainfall mainly limited to the Pacific
and Gulf of Alaska coasts.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...en
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ja
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...dek
LONG TERM...rf