Small Craft Advisory 439, NWS Anchorage, AK

950 
FZAK51 PAFC 262257
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-271215-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
GULF THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-271215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-271215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-271215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-271215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-271215-
PORT VALDEZ-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-271215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-271215-
VALDEZ ARM-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-271215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-271215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-271215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-271215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-271215-
CHINIAK BAY-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-271215-
MARMOT BAY-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-271215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-271215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-271215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
SUBSIDING.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-271215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
257 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 PM AKDT WED MAY 25 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level ridge currently dominates the eastern and central
Bering and southwest mainland. Fog and stratus cover much of the
Bering and continues to push into the southwest mainland due to
persistent westerly flow. The Alaskan Range is preventing this
stratus from surging eastward. As a result, fairly mild conditions
are occurring across south central Alaska today with just a thin
veil of cirrus clouds. Meanwhile a well organized low pressure
system is centered in the western Aleutians near Shemya. An
associated low level jet is bringing gusty winds and steady rain
to the central Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in relatively good agreement in the short term as
the upper level ridge continues to amplify and push westward.
Models show more disagreement towards the long term as an upper
level wave over the eastern gulf pushes westward into south
central on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)..
A building ridge over the eastern Bering and southwest Alaska
will amplify into Southcentral through Friday. A moisture
connection to a large western Bering low is spreading high clouds
over Southcentral, but this moisture tap will diminish by Friday,
allowing for clearing skies and continued warming temperatures.
With rapidly building high pressure inland, this will allow for
the development of a northerly offshore pressure gradient. All
areas of Southcentral will warm up including coastal locations.
Showers will be possible along the Talkeetna Mountains, Wrangell
Mountains, and Alaska Range through Thursday before clearing out.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Cloud cover and showers over the area will begin to diminish this
evening in advance of approaching ridging from the Bering Sea.
This ridging will move overhead and strengthen on Thursday,
allowing for sunny skies, warming temperatures, and light winds.
Ridging will then persist into Friday, leaving allowing
interior temperatures to continue to warm into the 70's with weak
offshore flow and sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
Most of the activity over the region will remain confined to the
western Bering/Aleutians as a weakening gale force front will
continue to remain nearly stationary over the area this evening.
This will bring a few strong wind gusts to mainly the Adak area
this evening before winds and rain will diminish throughout the
region as the associated low moves northward into the northwest
Bering and dissipates. As this happens, winds throughout the
region will fall below small craft by Friday morning...and remain
there into this weekend with clearing skies.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
On Day 3, models remain in fair agreement with a pair of weak lows
over the Aleutians and a northwest to southeast orientated ridge
over the Western Gulf of Alaska. Starting late on Day 3, models
begin to diverge with a fairly weak-flow pattern developing over
the region. Models are unanimous in developing a surface low on
Sunday southwest of Shemya, but the model agreement ends there
with the GFS developing a low that meanders just south of the
Western Aleutians through the end of the period before washing out
and the EC aggressively developing a 980 mb low that migrates into
the Southcentral Bering Sea. With this wide spread, the extended
forecast settled heavy on WPC Guidance, which was mainly based on
the 00Z EC Ensemble with some 00Z EC deterministic data.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 173 175 176.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...en
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ja
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...dek
LONG TERM...rf