Small Craft Advisory 407, NWS Anchorage, AK

929 
FZAK52 PAFC 162301
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171200-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE REORGANIZES SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WEAK TROUGHS MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
BRISTOL BAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A NEW TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING BY EARLY WED AND REMAIN THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-171200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ155-171200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-171200-
BRISTOL BAY-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-171200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-171200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-171200-
UNALASKA BAY-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-171200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-171200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-171200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-171200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-171200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-171200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-171200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-171200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-171200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-171200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-171200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

101 
FZAK52 PAFC 171147
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-180115-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL EXIT TO THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT AND REMAIN
OVER THE BERING THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 1008 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 500
NM WEST OF SHEMYA WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-180115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ155-180115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-180115-
BRISTOL BAY-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-180115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-180115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-180115-
UNALASKA BAY-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-180115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-180115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-180115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-180115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-180115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-180115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-180115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-180115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-180115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-180115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-180115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
347 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

528 
FZAK52 PAFC 172311
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-181200-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING THROUGH WED.
A 1007 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 260 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL WED
MORNING AND DRIFTS TO 150 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL AT 1005 MB
THU AFTERNOON. A 1008 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WED AFTERNOON MOVES TO
380 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA THU AFTERNOON AND MAINTAINS STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ150-181200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-181200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-181200-
BRISTOL BAY-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ165-181200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-181200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-181200-
UNALASKA BAY-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-181200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-181200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-181200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-181200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-181200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-181200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-181200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-181200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-181200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-181200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-181200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
311 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

088 
FZAK52 PAFC 181143
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-190100-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1006 MB LOW 500 NM WEST OF SHEMYA TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO 275 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT 1007 MB THU NIGHT. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
MOVE TO 375 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 998 MB THU NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-190100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-190100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-190100-
BRISTOL BAY-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ165-190100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT S 15 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-190100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-190100-
UNALASKA BAY-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-190100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-190100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-190100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-190100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-190100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-190100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-190100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-190100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-190100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT AND THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-190100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-190100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
343 AM AKDT WED MAY 18 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKDT SUN MAY 15 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A slow transition in the upper level pattern in underway. High
pressure that has been holding over much of the eastern half of
the state has retreated into the Northwest Territories. This has
allowed a much of convoluted pattern to start taking shape across
the domain. The biggest weather maker for the next few days will
be a vertically stacked low currently south of the Gulf of Alaska
near 52N. There is some jet support surrounding this low with 120
kts on its south side and a weak 70 kt finger on the north side.
This is leaving most of the region in a col, or an area of weak
forcing and flow. This should set the stage for another day of
afternoon showers along the higher terrain and sea breezes.

The thermal trough is established along the Alaska Range once
again today. This will be the focal point for convection later
this afternoon and evening, and we have already seen some cumulus
developing (as of noon). The remnants of the shortwave trough that
initiated thunderstorms over Southwest Alaska on Saturday
continues to linger near the Kuskokwim mountains. This feature
will add some additional lift to help convection develop.

Widespread marine stratus and fog is plaguing the bering sea.
Several places from Cold Bay through Adak experienced visibilities
less than one mile this morning. Conditions are slowing improving
for the Alaska Peninsula as northeast flow and some drier air work
on the fog.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
No significant synoptic model discrepancies noted. This is lending
to moderate to high forecast overall confidence in the forecast.
With most of the forecast focused on local and gap winds and
isolated convective potential, the higher resolution models were
relied upon heavily.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will persist and gap winds will increase as we
move into Monday. The coastal ridge of high pressure will start
to build overnight and be firmly in place on Monday. This will
help to accelerate gap winds through south/southeast to
north/northwest oriented valleys. This will favor the typical
places such as the Turnagain Arm, the Copper River Valley, and the
Knik River Valley. Winds will start to increase somewhat this
evening before dropping off during the pre-dawn hours. Winds will
then ramp up even more during the day Monday reaching into 20-30
mph for many locations. Humidities should rise somewhat on Monday
as more marine-influenced air pushes toward the coast, but
minimum humidities will still hover in the 30 TO 40% range. While
temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler Monday than they
have been over the weekend, they will still be above normal. Some
areas along northwest slopes will see the warmest temperatures
with the southeast winds providing some adiabatic warming without
adding in much moisture.

.HYDROLOGY...

Many of the rivers and streams around Southcentral Alaska have
seen water levels rise significantly as the recent heatwave
kicked snow-melt in the mountains into high gear. In fact, based
on available observed snowpack data, most of the mountain ranges
in the area have lost about 5 inches of snow-water equivalent in
the past 6 days. The rivers are responding as if we were receiving
the better part of an inch of rain each day for 6 straight days!
With lowering freezing levels and cooler temperatures expected to
begin moving into the area for the start of the week, these
elevated river levels will begin to moderate back to typical
spring levels. No flooding is anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The dominant upper level ridge over Southcentral will begin to
weaken monday as a front moves up along the northern gulf coast in
conjunction with a trough of low pressure propagating southward
from the north slope. A marine air mass over the Gulf of Alaska
will over spread the coast, bringing much cooler air and patchy
fog and low stratus. The weakening interior thermal trough will
remain over the northern mountains, with continued shower threats
and the possibility of localized thunderstorms across the eastern
Alaska Range and Talkeetna Mountains. The arrival of the coastal
marine air mass will also strengthen the coastal pressure ridge
which will help drive increasing southeast winds through favored
gaps. These winds will also bend into south and west Anchorage
and will become gusty along the hillside and into east Anchorage.

Clouds and shower chances will become more widespread Tuesday as
Southcentral becomes sandwiched in between two upper lows.
Temperatures will also drop to near normal levels. This will also
inhibit instability with stratiform rain across the eastern Copper
Basin and showers elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Convective activity has initiated across the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley zone and will continue to do so through the early evening
hours before a very gradual downtrend with loss of daytime
heating. Models are consistently showing the greatest lightning
coverage confined to the Lower Kuskokwim Valley; however, the
Canadian global model also hints at convection developing along
the Kuskokwim Delta coast south of Bethel this afternoon and
moving west-northwest into the west-central Delta zone. Indeed,
cumulus development has been fairly robust in this area through
the afternoon hours, lending the model some credence. Therefore,
the POPs and lightning coverage have been expanded to include
those areas mainly south through southwest of Bethel toward the
coast.

Storm vectors today are weaker than those on Saturday which will
cause the thunderstorms to move a good bit slower. With a slower
storm motion...areas that see thunderstorms could see some decent
rainfall amounts as well as gusty winds when the thunderstorms
collapse. As thunderstorms collapse, the outflow will spark
additional thunderstorms further west. Thunderstorms should be
limited to the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and extend as far west as
the Kilbuck Mountains. These thunderstorms will begin to taper off
during the evening hours.

For Monday, convection will again be robust and will impact most
of the same areas as this weekend as the stationary thermal
trough remains in place. By Tuesday, convective showers and
thunderstorms may become more widespread as a fairly potent mid-
level low drops south from the Interior toward the area.

Going back to temperatures briefly, temperatures will continue to
remain above normal through the beginning of the upcoming week but
will gradually cool off 2-4 degrees or so each day. Today will be
the warmest day with temperatures largely in the mid 60s to mid
70s and by Tuesday high temperatures will range from the mid 50s
to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A north-south oriented stationary weather front situated from
between the Central and Eastern Aleutians to the Kuskokwim Delta
will slowly dissipate through Monday as a stronger surface trough
develops over southwestern Alaska, Bristol Bay and the central
Alaska Peninsula. To the west of the former front, northerly winds
will very gradually continue their downward trend. To the east,
weak winds with patchy to areas of fog will continue to impact the
southeastern Bering and nearby coastal areas especially in the
overnight and morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

An amplification of the longwave pattern will commence by the
middle of the week. The extended models are slowly coming into
some better agreement as another fairly impressive ridge of high
pressure builds northward from the Pacific and into southern
Alaska. The exact position of the ridge axis will be critical to
the positioning of clouds and rainfall (to the west of the ridge
axis), and the ridge axis position is largely a function of how
far east in the Bering Sea the stationary upper low sets up shop
early in the week. It looks increasingly likely that this ridge
axis will be located in the vicinity of the Copper River Basin and
ALCAN border. This means that cloud-cover will be on the increase
across Southwest and Southcentral Alaska on Thursday, with two
rounds of fast-moving but widespread rain likely in the Thursday
night/Friday morning time-frame and again during the day
Saturday. Temperatures will moderate from recent record highs, but
the bigger driver of possibly significant cooling will be the
increasing influence of a low-level maritime airmass working into
upper Cook Inlet and the Mat-Su Valleys.

Meanwhile, the Bering Sea and Aleutians will stay clear of
significant large-scale weather systems for the next week. The
only exception will be the eastern Bering/Aleutians that will
receive a glancing blow from a northward-moving low and weather
front on Thursday. In general, this means the area will experience
typical warm-seasons conditions such as calm winds, widespread
low-clouds, and areas of fog.

&&

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...AD