Small Craft Advisory 405, NWS Anchorage, AK

921 
FZAK51 PAFC 161125
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170030-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. 
A 997 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA 315
NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO 200 NM
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 1002 MB BY TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-170030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-170030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-170030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-170030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-170030-
PORT VALDEZ-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-170030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-170030-
VALDEZ ARM-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.

$$

PKZ129-170030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ130-170030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-170030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-170030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ136-170030-
CHINIAK BAY-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-170030-
MARMOT BAY-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-170030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT SHIFTING TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-170030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-170030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-170030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
325 AM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

474 
FZAK51 PAFC 162318
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171230-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 989 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
330 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK AT 993 MB LATE TONIGHT AND MOVES TO
110 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA AT 1012 MB BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-171230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-171230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ121-171230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-171230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-171230-
PORT VALDEZ-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-171230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-171230-
VALDEZ ARM-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-171230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-171230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-171230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ132-171230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-171230-
CHINIAK BAY-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-171230-
MARMOT BAY-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-171230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-171230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-171230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-171230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
318 PM AKDT MON MAY 16 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

735 
FZAK51 PAFC 171118
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180030-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 993 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 
200 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 1002 MB TUE NIGHT...THEN TO 115 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SITKA AT 1012 MB BY WED AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING
JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-180030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. NEAR THE COAST...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 4 FT NEAR THE COAST.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-180030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. NEAR THE COAST...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 4 FT NEAR THE COAST.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ121-180030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-180030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-180030-
PORT VALDEZ-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-180030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-180030-
VALDEZ ARM-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-180030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 1 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-180030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-180030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ132-180030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-180030-
CHINIAK BAY-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-180030-
MARMOT BAY-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-180030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT SHIFTING TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-180030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-180030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-180030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
318 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
BY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 AM AKDT SUN MAY 15 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The 500 mb level displays a shortwave extending through the
Eastern Bering Sea into the Bristol Bay interior, and extending
into the Copper River Basin this morning. The 850 mb temperatures
are showing the strong thermal trough remains positioned through
the Kuskokwim Delta into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, and extending
into the Alaska Range this morning. While the Western Bering has a
ridge extending through the region into the Western Aleutians. The
water vapor imagery is nicely showing the dry slot associated with
the upper level ridge over the Western Bering/ALeutians. There is
some marine layer stratus/fog in the Eastern Aleutians and the
surface observation at Cold Bay has been reporting intermittent
lifr/mvfr conditions and light winds this morning. This coincides
with the ASCAT Scatterometer Wind imagery displaying weak flow
over the Eastern Bering and small craft northeasterly flow through
the Central Bering. On the east side, the satellite imagery is
showing a shield of moisture entering the lower Gulf of Alaska
this morning. This synoptic feature is associated with a frontal
boundary pushing into the aforementioned region coupled with a
weak 1006 mb North Pacific low near 48n 154w. The satellite
imagery was also showing marine layer stratus/fog towards the
Northern Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models have come into better agreement. The gfs was the
preferred model of choice for the Southwest/Southcentral Alaska
regions. The nam/gfs and the ecmwf were in good agreement with
the North Pacific low tracking into the Gulf of Alaska by Tuesday.
The models continue to show the thermal trough moving slightly
farther east today. This will allow the thundertorms that develop
by this afternoon in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley to track farther
west into the Kuskokwim Delta. The forecast confidence remains
high as we head into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The diffuse remnants of an upper level short-wave trough will
continue to push northward across interior Southcentral today.
With little in the way of organized forcing from this short-wave
convection will be focused primarily along the low level thermal
trough where the greatest air mass instability is located. This is
aligned along the Alaska Range and Wrangell Mountains...with the
greatest instability on the north side of the Alaska Range. Based
on this latest guidance have backed off a bit on showers and
thunderstorms over interior Southcentral. Meanwhile, upper level
ridging and more stable conditions will move in behind the short-
wave providing continued dry conditions across the southern tier
of Southcentral. The 12z Anchorage sounding shows the entire
column has cooled. This is representative of the air mass moving
in from the Gulf of Alaska and will lead to cooler temperatures
area-wide today.

The big story for tonight through Monday will be the push of a
marine layer northwestward across the Gulf of Alaska to Kodiak
Island, the northern Gulf coast, and Prince William Sound. This
will bring overcast conditions, much cooler day-time temperatures,
and likely areas of fog. This marine layer will combine with an
approaching upper level short-wave to produce a chance of light
rain. For the rest of Southcentral weak and diffuse flow and weak
instability indicate conditions will generally remain on the dry
side with perhaps a few showers along the mountains. Increased
cloud cover and continued cooling of the air mass will lead to
more seasonable (cooler) temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The recent warm pattern across Southwest Alaska will continue
through this afternoon with abundant sunshine in the forecast for
many locations. However, this abundant sunshine can act as a
double-edged sword when combined with a warmer than typical air
mass and an upper level disturbance approaching from the east. All
of the aforementioned ingredients combine to produce an unstable
air mass which will likely produce thunderstorms. As seen on
Friday across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, when all of these
ingredients came together copious amounts of lightning associated
with thunderstorm development are likely. This will be the same
story today except ingredients actually look a little more
favorable with cooler mid-level temperatures (steeper lapse rates)
coupled with a more potent easterly wave traversing the Alaska
Range.

Once again it looks like thunderstorms should develop by late
afternoon near the Alaska Range. Storm vectors today are weaker
than those on Friday which will cause the thunderstorms to move a
good bit slower. With a slower storm motion...areas that see
thunderstorms could see some decent rainfall amounts as well as
gusty winds when the thunderstorms collapse. As thunderstorms
collapse, the outflow will spark additional thunderstorms further
west. Thunderstorms should be limited to the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley and extend as far west as the Kilbuck Mountains. These
thunderstorms will begin to taper off during the evening hours.

Going back to temperatures briefly, temperatures will continue to
remain above normal through the beginning of the upcoming week but
will gradually cool off 2-4 degrees or so each day. Today will be
the warmest day with temperatures largely in the mid 60s to mid
70s and by Tuesday high temperatures will range from the mid 50s
to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A very benign weather pattern remains in store for much of the
Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands as high pressure shifts to the
west/northwest. An area of low pressure will skirt south of the
Aleutians today which will create a decent pressure gradient over
the western half of the Bering Sea. This will bring small craft
winds and seas to the Pribilof Islands today but the gradient
should weaken throughout the day which will cause winds to
gradually diminish. Fog will be an issue this morning with some
areas seeing clearing skies and a saturated boundary layer. The
Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians looks like the most likely
candidates for fog but it is possible across much of the Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
By Monday evening any semblance of the dominant ridge currently
bringing record temperatures to mainland Alaska will be all but
gone. An amplified upper trough stretching down from the Arctic
Ocean will become a closed low somewhere in the Northeast Bering
Sea. At the same time, a mature vertically-stacked system will
move into the Northeast Gulf of Alaska and impact primarily the
AK Panhandle. Initially this will leave a good portion of Southern
Alaska pinned between these two systems, with the net result being
more cloud cover than the last few days but still pretty
benign/decent weather days overall. Meanwhile, the Aleutians/Bering
Sea region will remain in generally benign conditions, which this
time of year will translate into increasing amounts of marine
fog/low-clouds.

For the second half of the week things get a bit more interesting
and uncertain. All models depict an overall re-amplification of
the general pattern, with a fairly strong ridge building northward
into the southern mainland. Initially this will produce a day or
so of clearing and sunshine to Southern Alaska but will then
usher in a period of southwesterly flow and widespread rain across
the area somewhere in the Friday/Saturday timeframe. The airmass
will move back to more seasonally normal temperatures, but will
remain relatively mild overall.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...TP