Small Craft Advisory 400, NWS Anchorage, AK

174 
FZAK51 PAFC 102327
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111230-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH LATE 
WED NIGHT. A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST PERSISTS 
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-111230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-111230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-111230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-111230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-111230-
PORT VALDEZ-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING 
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-111230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-111230-
VALDEZ ARM-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-111230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING 
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-111230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-111230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-111230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ136-111230-
CHINIAK BAY-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-111230-
MARMOT BAY-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-111230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-111230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-111230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING 
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-111230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
327 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
449 PM AKDT MON MAY 9 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN BERING THIS
MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
THE STATE ON ITS WAY TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS IS BRINGING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND. THIS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS REFLECTED DOWN IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
WETTING RAINS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT AND ARE
TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TRANSITS THE
REGION.

IN THE WEST THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS WELL STACKED WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT IS BRINGING
GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN TO THE EASTERN BERING AND WILL VERY
SLOWLY TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE GREATLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE MAINLAND AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINING THE DRIVING
FEATURE IN THE WEST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. NAM WAS
PRIMARILY USED TO ADJUST MINOR DETAILS...BUT OVERALL VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...GENERALLY EXPECT IMPROVING CEILINGS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AS
SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE...WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING. AFTER A DAY OF LIGHT RAIN THIS CREATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALIZED FOG AND IFR/LIFR CEILINGS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR WHETHER PANC WILL OBSERVE THESE
CONDITIONS...SO FOR NOW HAVE SIMPLY GONE WITH VCFG FROM 12Z TO
18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS COOL AND DAMP IN THE WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE EAST FIRE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN AT A
MINIMUM THROUGH TODAY...BUT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN THERE IS A
RISK FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
KEY FACTOR WILL BE HOW FAR THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPILL OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE. AREAS UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
PROTECTED WHILE SUNNIER AREAS WILL QUICKLY WARM AND DRY. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE SHIELDED BY THIS
CIRRUS THROUGH TUES AND INTO EARLY WEDS BUT THE BUILDING RIDGE
WILL BRING SUNNIER WEATHER TO SOUTHCENTRAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL
MAINLAND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND GENERALLY MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PARTICULARLY ALONG
COOK INLET AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAINLAND TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL. IN CONTRAST...SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA AS A FRONT STALLS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE METEOROLOGICAL REASONING WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
REMAINS MUCH THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES WITH THE MODELS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND EFFECTIVELY STALLING IN PLACE AS THE
RIDGE BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA IN A DEEP SOUTHERLY FETCH WITH MOISTURE STREAMING
INTO THE REGION FROM AROUND 30N. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG THE COAST AND
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE/KAMISHAK GAP.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EASES WITH THE LOW WEAKENING.

RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AREAS OF OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR UPSLOPE AREAS
LIKE THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN SOMEWHAT OVER THE BERING SEA
AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA
MOVES ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE FAR EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH GAP AREAS
SUCH AS UNIMAK PASS AND COLD BAY. OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...KEEPING THE REGION IN
A WET PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION
WILL ENTER A SOMEWHAT DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOSTLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
LATER ON THURSDAY A CONSOLIDATED BLOCKING HIGH WILL FORM OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE AND ELONGATE AND BUILD TO THE WEST. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT THE SKIES AND RESULT IN WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOONS
THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SOAR TO THE HIGHEST
LEVELS THIS YEAR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 165 170 180 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS/MODEL DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...LF
AVIATION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...DK