Small Craft Advisory 392, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

May 7, 2016, 3:47 AM AKDT (11:47 UTC)

Expired

May 7, 2016, 4:30 PM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

584 
FZAK51 PAFC 071147
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080030-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1003 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES TO 80 NM
NORTHWEST OF SITKA AND DISSIPATES SAT EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-080030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-080030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-080030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-080030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-080030-
PORT VALDEZ-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT EARLY BECOMING NE 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-080030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT EARLY EVENING BECOMING NE 15 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT EARLY BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE EVENING. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-080030-
VALDEZ ARM-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS.

$$

PKZ129-080030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-080030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-080030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-080030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-080030-
CHINIAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-080030-
MARMOT BAY-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-080030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-080030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-080030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS TOWARD
MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-080030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING SW WIND 10 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at May 6, 4:42 PM AKDT, 11 hours 5 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
442 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER TROUGH SPANS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH A CLOSED CENTER
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGING SEPARATES THIS
SYSTEM FROM ANOTHER LONGWAVE OVER KAMCHATKA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR KODIAK WITH A BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND ALONG THE FAR EASTERN COPPER
RIVER VALLEY AS AN UPPER WAVE ENHANCES LIFT IN THIS REGION. TO THE
WEST...A FRONT MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS EARLIER
TODAY WITH LOW END GALE WINDS AROUND THE CHAIN. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ON AN EAST TO NORTHEAST TRACK WHICH IS STARTING TO
BREAK DOWN THE WEAK RIDGE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOWS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALASKA AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THE JET STREAM IS
PROJECTED TO STAY ACTIVE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH
INCREASING RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WITH MOST EDITS MADE
USING THE LOCAL HIRES AND NAM MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SHOWERY CONDITIONS ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO TAPER OFF SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AS THE LOW
TRACKING THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK UP THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF/KENAI PENINSULA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A WELL-TIMED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT WILL HELP TO PRODUCE MORE STEADY AND
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT
OF LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY (A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH)
AND ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN ENTERS A PERIOD OF TRANSITION AS A FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND COASTLINE BY SATURDAY EVENING. ACCOMPANYING
THIS FRONT WILL BE A SWITCH TO MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS. ALSO ACCOMPANYING THIS CHANGE WILL BE SEVERAL EPISODES
OF RAIN MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE THIS COOLER/CLOUDIER/WETTER PATTERN MOVES INTO
THIS AREA AS WELL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A PARENT LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT (CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS) MOVES EASTWARD AND GETS MORE AND MORE
STRETCHED OUT/WEAKER. BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE A BIT OF COOLER
AIR MOVING OFF THE EASTERN RUSSIAN LANDMASS...WHICH WILL HELP TO
KICK OFF A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE
BERING SEA DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL NOT BE ANYTHING OVERLY
IMPACTFUL OR OUT OF THE ORDINARY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT MAY NOT EVEN REACH GALE-FORCE BEFORE
WEAKENING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM SUNDAY ONWARD LOOKS MUCH THE SAME AS
THE CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FOR THE
PREVIOUS WEEK OR SO. WHILE THE PATTERN IS CHANGING ALOFT, IT WILL
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SENDING A SERIES OF FRONTS
OVER THE MAINLAND. LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A WEAKENING FRONT AND
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN
TO MOST AREAS. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SEVERAL OF THESE
SCENARIOS PLAY OUT WITH TWO MORE COMING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS. THE GULF COAST WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LESS MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD
BE A BREAK LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MIGRATES UP TO
THE COAST MAKING FOR A COUPLE SEASONABLE SUNNY DAYS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PEPE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AD
LONG TERM...ML

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.