Small Craft Advisory 379, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

May 3, 2016, 2:50 PM AKDT (22:50 UTC)

Expired

May 4, 2016, 3:30 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

364 
FZAK52 PAFC 032250
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041130-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A BROAD 1001 MB LOW WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS 100 NM SOUTH OF SAINT
GEORGE WILL DISSIPATE BY WED MORNING. A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WED
NIGHT...AND STALLS THERE THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-041130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-041130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-041130-
BRISTOL BAY-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-041130-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-041130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-041130-
UNALASKA BAY-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-041130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-041130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-041130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-041130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-041130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-041130-
ADAK TO KISKA-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS
7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ178-041130-
KISKA TO ATTU-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-041130-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-041130-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-041130-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-041130-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
250 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at May 3, 4:32 AM AKDT, 10 hours 18 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
432 AM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH A VERY BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
ALASKA WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH ITS AXIS ALONG
THE ROCKIES. WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH...TWO FAIRLY DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.
THE EASTERN WAVE IS NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH AN AXIS ALONG 135W AND
IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AS THE STOUT RIDGE IS INHIBITING
MUCH EASTWARD MOTION. THE SECOND WAVE IS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 170E. EMBEDDED AT THE POLEWARD END OF THIS
TROUGH IS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS IS A BROAD AND FLAT RIDGE ALONG
165W THAT IS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE IS PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.

THE POLAR JET REMAINS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
150KT JET MAX LOCATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AROUND 40-45N AND CENTERED AROUND 180. THE POLEWARD LIMB OF THE
POLAR JET IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA WITH A MAX SPEED OF
ABOUT 100KTS.

A WEAKENING 996 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR ADAK THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW STRETCHING
EASTWARD OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLAND AND THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA. A DECAYING 1006 MB LOW REMAINS NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND AND IS CONTINUING TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD. A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE /ABOUT 1004MB/ IS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER
YUKON VALLEY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN QUARTET OF MODELS INITIALIZED ACCEPTABLY AT 00Z WITH ONLY
MINOR DIFFERENCES. THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAJOR FEATURES WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES LYING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A APPROXIMATELY 987MB LOW
AROUND 50N 165W. THE EC TENDS TO DEVELOP THIS LOW SLIGHTLY DEEPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS...WITH THE NAM DEVELOPING THE LOW A BIT
FURTHER TO THE EAST AND PROGRESSING THE FRONT A BIT FASTER INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY THE END OF DAY 2. FOR THIS PACKAGE
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE NAM WAS USED FOR GUIDANCE ON THE WESTERN
DOMAIN WITH A BLEND OF THE EC/GFS/GEM-REGIONAL IN THE SHORT TERM
ON THE EASTERN DOMAIN. THE GEM-REGIONAL WAS USED FOR DETAILS OF
THE BARRIER JET EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE
OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE UPPER COOK INLET REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE DISSIPATES OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE. WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A LOW-STABILITY
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG THE WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND REGION...WHILE SOUTHEAST GAP WINDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS THE MAIN IMPACT ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CHUGACH FROM
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY TO ANCHORAGE.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WITH A SURFACE FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT AND REACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST...PARTICULARLY WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AGAIN...AND CONTINUED SOUTHEAST GAP WINDS THROUGH THE
CHUGACH RANGE AND COPPER RIVER BASIN.

A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST GULF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURE
WILL BE THE LINGERING THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.
THE OTHER FEATURE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
MOVE ENTERING THE BRISTOL BAY REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE ENTERING THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA HEADING INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BRING A SWATH OF MOISTURE AND EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE LOW STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE HEADING INTO
THURSDAY. THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A WEATHER FRONT MOVING
INTO THE CHAIN. THIS WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ANADYR GULF REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...THU THROUGH MON)...
BIG PICTURE MOVING FORWARD IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL BE MORE
DYNAMIC THAN WE HAVE SEEN IT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THE LOW
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL SET UP SHOP NEAR
BRISTOL BAY ON THU. IT WILL STALL OUT THERE AND WEAKEN IN PLACE.
BUT IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER...STRONGER LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND TRACK TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND ON FRI.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE GULF OF AK ON THU AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ON FRI. THE LOW THEN QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND LEAVING SOME RIDGING IN PLACE. ANOTHER LOW
QUICKLY MOVES IN TO THE BERING SEA OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE SOME
RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE MAINLAND.

MODELS HAVE ALL BEEN STRUGGLING IN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
ENERGY FROM BRISTOL BAY INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC ON THU. AS IT WEAKENS...IT DOES SEND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WED EVE INTO THU MORNING. WE HAVE
BUMPED SHOWERS UP TO SCATTERED WITH THIS FEATURE AS CROSS-BARRIER
FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW SO
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THERE. IT WILL PULL UP A HEALTHY AMOUNT
OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF AND BRING MODERATE RAIN TO
THE COASTLINE THROUGH FRI. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO GALE-FORCE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF...ESPECIALLY THE BARRIER JET REGION.
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION CAN MAKE IT INLAND IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE ANOTHER DOWN-SLOPING SCENARIO
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST.

INTO THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THIS LOW WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST QUICKLY ON SAT. THIS SHOULD SPELL A
RAPIDLY CLEARING DAY ACROSS THE MAINLAND WITH DRY OFFSHORE FLOW.
THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THAN MANY PLACES HAVE
SEEN FOR SOMETIME. BEYOND THIS...CONFIDENCE DROPS MARKEDLY. MODELS
ARE SORTING OUT HOW FAR EAST THE BERING LOW CAN TRACK VS HOW
STRONG RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WILL BE VS IF A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW BRINGS IN MORE CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTH. IF RIDGING WERE TO
WIN OUT...WHICH SOME OF THE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING...WE WOULD NEED TO
DRY THE FORECAST OUT CONSIDERABLY FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RLF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...MO

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.