Small Craft Advisory 351, NWS Anchorage, AK

381 
FZAK52 PAFC 232346 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

UPDATED 171

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-241200-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 986 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 280 NM SOUTH OF
CHIGNIK MON AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO 971 MB.


$$

PKZ150-241200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-241200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 40 KT FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ160-241200-
BRISTOL BAY-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-241200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-241200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-241200-
UNALASKA BAY-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-241200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-241200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-241200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-241200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-241200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-241200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-241200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-241200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-241200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-241200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-241200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
546 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT IS UNDERWAY. A FEW RIPPLES OF JET ENERGY
ARE MAKING THEIR WAY FROM THE MAIN ZONAL JET UP INTO THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. ONE IMPULSE OF ENERGY IS SUPPORTING A DEVELOPING
LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. ANOTHER PIECE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY
STRONG OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. CLOSER TO
THE MAINLAND...THE WEAK FRONT THAT WAS OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST
ON FRI IS DRIFTING INLAND AND MAKING FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE MORE
IMPRESSIVE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE COAST TODAY IS CURRENTLY
BEARING DOWN ON KODIAK. HEFTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND RAIN WILL BE THE
STORY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK
RIDGING HANGING ON STRETCHING FROM THE WRANGELLS OVER TO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. THIS RIDGING WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION
TO MAKE IT INLAND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE. THIS
IS LENDING TO MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEALING WITH
THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE NAM WAS FAVORED EARLY ON WITH
HIGHER-RESOLUTION MODELS USED TO HANDLE SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS.
THE TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN TO HOLD
THE OCCLUDED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF FURTHER SOUTH.
THE NET EFFECT WILL BE THAT INLAND AREAS MAY STAY COMPLETELY DRY
TODAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY. WE CONTINUE TO WATCH AS THE UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS
OF THAT LOW ARE PUSHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LATE SUN NIGHT. MODELS
ARE STARTING TO COME TO MORE OF CONSENSUS THAT THIS ENERGY WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION TO INLAND AREAS...BUT IT STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPING THERE MIGHT BE AND HOW MUCH
ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A SERIES OF OCCLUDED FRONTS MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST FRONT MOVES NORTH TODAY AND BRINGS RAIN TO THE
GULF COASTS AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS WITH MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF
RAIN INLAND DUE TO DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.
RAIN ACROSS THE GULF COAST SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT. MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE FRONT BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK GAP
FLOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM AND THROUGH THE
KNIK RIVER VALLEY. WINDS IN THESE AREAS WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT WITH A
FLOW REVERSAL BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO WHITTIER.

THE FRONT MOVING NORTH ON SUN SHOULD BE STRONGER AND WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT TO GALES TO MARINE ZONES AND INCREASE GAP
FLOWS ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM...KNIK RIVER VALLEY...AND COPPER RIVER
BASIN. PRECIPITATION AT LEAST THROUGH SUN WILL BE CONFINED LARGELY
TO THE COASTS AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS.

&&

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...SAT AND SUN)...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
FOR THE YK-DELTA AREA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF BRISTOL BAY. THIS
SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...ONE
WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO CREEP INTO AREAS MAINLY EAST OF
DILLINGHAM. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES THE SAME LOCATION
LATER TODAY FROM THE GULF. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. AS
EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE ON
SUN...THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A PIECE OF ENERGY TO COME ACROSS
THE ALASKA RANGE. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SOME
RAIN TO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE DELTA SUN EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...SAT AND
SUN)...
ONE OCCLUDED LOW WILL SWING A DECAYING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO THESE AREAS AS FLOW CHANGES FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST. BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUN...A NEW MUCH STRONGER
NORTH PACIFIC LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE. THE BIGGEST STORY WITH
THIS STORM WILL BE THE GALE-FORCE SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IT WILL
SPREAD FROM DUTCH HARBOR OVER TO COLD BAY ON SUN. IT WILL ALSO
HELP TO REINFORCE PRECIPITATION ALONG A DEFORMATION AXIS FROM JUST
WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS THROUGH NIKOLSKI. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN...EVEN THOUGH
SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN THE HEAVIER BANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING...THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP NORTH PACIFIC LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A WEAKENING LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTH PACIFIC LOW. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A
REGION OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE YUKON WILL SPREAD CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY
INTO SOUTHWEST. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN LOW CENTER WILL
MOVE TOWARD KODIAK...WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW FOCUSING MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTH COAST INTO SOUTHWEST...WITH
TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE DRYING KEEPING MOST OF INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL ON
THE DRIER SIDE.

BY MIDWEEK...THE PATTERN WILL GO BACK TO REPEAT WITH A WESTERN
BERING TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH THE MOST PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK EVEN IN
THE MIDST OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 131 132 155 172 351 352. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY 119 130 136 137 138 139 150 165 170 171 173 174 175 176
177 178 179 180 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...JA