Small Craft Advisory 349, NWS Anchorage, AK

020 
FZAK52 PAFC 231200
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-240045-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 987 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WILL TRACK 75 NM SOUTHEAST
OF ADAK SUN MORNING AT 985 MB. IT WILL BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER
NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT FORMS 330 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 985
MB SUN MORNING. THE NEW LOW THEN TRACKS TO 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DUTCH HARBOR MON MORNING AT 970 MB. 

$$

PKZ150-240045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-240045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 25
KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...E WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-240045-
BRISTOL BAY-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-240045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-240045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-240045-
UNALASKA BAY-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-240045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-240045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-240045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-240045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-240045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ177-240045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-240045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ179-240045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY MORNING FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-240045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-240045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-240045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... NE 30 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... NE 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

745 
FZAK52 PAFC 232248
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-241215-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 986 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 280 NM SOUTH OF
CHIGNIK MON AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO 971 MB.


$$

PKZ150-241215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-241215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 40 KT FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ160-241215-
BRISTOL BAY-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-241215-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-241215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-241215-
UNALASKA BAY-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-241215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-241215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-241215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-241215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-241215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-241215-
ADAK TO KISKA-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-241215-
KISKA TO ATTU-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-241215-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-241215-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-241215-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-241215-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
248 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

381 
FZAK52 PAFC 232346 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

UPDATED 171

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-241200-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 986 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 280 NM SOUTH OF
CHIGNIK MON AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO 971 MB.


$$

PKZ150-241200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-241200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 40 KT FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ160-241200-
BRISTOL BAY-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-241200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-241200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-241200-
UNALASKA BAY-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-241200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-241200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-241200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-241200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-241200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-241200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-241200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-241200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-241200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-241200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-241200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
346 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
532 AM AKDT FRI APR 22 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA
REMAINS ONE THAT HAS BEEN A STAPLE FOR MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS POSITIONED OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW FROM
THE GULF ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS
SEMI-BLOCKED PATTERN HAS NO DESIRE TO CHANGE MUCH...MEANING THE
WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES GRACING NEARLY ALL OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA LOOK TO CONTINUE. 850 MB TEMPS STAND AT 1-2 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THE FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS MADE FOR ENOUGH MIXING
FOR MANY AREAS TO ACHIEVE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE-WISE
WITH NUMEROUS AREAS AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL CRACKING 60 FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN 2016.

THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS ALSO LEAD TO APRIL BEING
VERY DRY AS WELL. ANCHORAGE INTERNATIONAL HAS ONLY REPORTED 0.02
INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH SO FAR. WHILE NOT UNHEARD OF (APRIL
1969 ONLY GOT A TRACE OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH)...IT DOES STAND IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE VERY WET MARCH ANCHORAGE HAD. THIS IS DESPITE
THE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED IN BOTH MONTHS.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...APRIL IS ALSO ANCHORAGES DRIEST MONTH.

WHAT ABOUT THE PATTERN HAS MADE IT SO DRY? A COUPLE FACTORS:
FIRST...RIDGING THROUGH THE GULF TO THE EAST OF THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT
AS WELL AS AT THE SURFACE. THIS IN TURN HAS REDUCED ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...INHIBITING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. THE POSITIVE
EFFECT OF THIS IN TURN HAS BEEN A BENIGN THUNDERSTORM SEASON
ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA THUS FAR...SO MOTHER NATURE HAS NOT
BEEN CAUSING MANY FIRES DUE TO DRY LIGHTNING. SECOND...ANY
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE GULF ARE EITHER
STEERED WELL WEST OF SOUTHCENTRAL INTO THE EASTERN BERING...OR
MEANDER IN THE GULF WITH NO ABILITY TO SPREAD MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION ANY RESPECTABLE DISTANCE FROM THE COAST. IN LARGE
PART THIS MONTH...THE SECOND OPTION HAS PREVAILED...WITH FRONT
AFTER FRONT DYING OUT NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

AS IS NEARLY ALWAYS THE CASE IN THESE STAGNANT WEATHER
PATTERNS...THE MODELS ARE ALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT OF THE PRIMARY WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTING
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE NAM WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE AT LEAST EARLY ON
WITH ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION BETTER HANDLING LOCAL EFFECTS. WHERE
THE NAM DEVIATES FROM THE GFS AND EC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...A BLEND TOWARDS THOSE GLOBAL MODELS WAS USED. WITH FEW
AREAS SEEING ANY WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)...
COOLER AND CLOUDIER WEATHER TODAY. A WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF TODAY IS BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND CHANCES OF RAIN/SHOWERS. COASTAL AREAS AND FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN (NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE)
WHILE AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE CHUGACH WILL SEE FAR LESSER AMOUNTS
DUE TO SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR.

TONIGHT AND SAT...THE CURRENT FRONT OVER THE NORTH GULF WEAKENS
AND PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST/SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A SECONDARY FRONT THEN HEADS NORTH
TONIGHT BRINGING STEADY RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND...THEN RAIN TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST SAT. PRECIPITATION AGAIN WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO
THE COAST AS THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OVER THE GULF. SMALL CRAFT TO LOCAL MIN GALE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN ADVANCE/WITH THIS FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
RELATIVELY WEAK/MODERATE PRESSURE DRIVEN WINDS IN FAVORED LOCALS
(TURNAGAIN...KNIK...ETC).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...FRI AND SAT)...
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING COMBINED WITH BROAD SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY AND MILD THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF AK WILL TRY
TO MAKE IT OVER THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES LATER TODAY. BUT JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SCRUBBED OUT WITH ONLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. BY
SATURDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS
ANOTHER FRONT TAKES SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. BY LATE SAT...THAT
FRONT WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES.
THIS TIME HOWEVER IT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN FOR BRISTOL BAY.

IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A WEAK LOW
IS SITTING ON TOP OF COLD BAY WITH AN ELONGATED FRONT STRETCHING
IN TO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TODAY. FINALLY BY SAT MORNING...ENOUGH RIDGING AND
OFFSHORE FLOW PUSHES IN TO BRING A DRYING TREND WITH CALMER WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...FRI AND
SAT)...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL RULE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH...MORE STEADY RAIN AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. ON THE WESTERN SIDE...A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
COULD HELP TO MAKE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER NIKOLSKI LATER TODAY
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS WERE NOT RESOLVING THIS WELL ON THU...BUT
WITH SOME DECENT DOWNWARD OMEGA SLIDING DOWN THE TROUGH...SOME
GALE- FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY.

BY SAT...A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES UP FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC ENCROACHING ON THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS SHOULD MOVE
RATHER QUICKLY NORTH INTO THE BERING ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD
SMALL-CRAFT WINDS. A NEW...STRONGER TRIPLE-POINT LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF ADAK
STARTING OUT THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE A SECOND
LOW FORMING AT THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PHASE
INTO ONE 978 MB GALE FORCE LOW POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING GALE FORCE EASTERLY
WINDS ON THE PACIFIC SIDE FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTAINS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL EVOLVE INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CAUSING A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME FOR
THE BERING AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF
WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACKING OF THIS SYSTEM
EXCEPT FOR THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER. WHILE THE NAM KEPT TRACKING
THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE EXTENDING
TOWARDS THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS
IN THE LOWER GULF WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING
ALONG THE NORTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL COMMUNITIES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL SEE SOME MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL HAVE DRIER CONDITIONS
WITH THE CROSS-BARRIER FLOW. AS THESE SHORTWAVES PUSH THROUGH THE
SOUTHCENTRAL AREA THEY WILL EXIT INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION.
THIS WILL BRING A SHOWERY REGIME FOR THE BRISTOL BAY INTERIOR AND
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 155
165 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 179 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...PD