Small Craft Advisory 317, NWS Anchorage, AK

064 
FZAK51 PAFC 102243
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111145-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF MON MORNING...DRIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF LATE MON NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES TUE MORNING.
A 985 MB LOW MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-111145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-111145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-111145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-111145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-111145-
PORT VALDEZ-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-111145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-111145-
VALDEZ ARM-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-111145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-111145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-111145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-111145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...S WIND 15 KT
BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDDAY. N OF DANGEROUS
CAPE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-111145-
CHINIAK BAY-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-111145-
MARMOT BAY-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-111145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-111145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. N OF ANCHOR POINT...VARIABLE
WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-111145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-111145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
243 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
414 PM AKDT SAT APR 9 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LOOK AT THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN SHOWS A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER
THE BERING SEA AND NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST US COAST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF MAINLAND ALASKA.
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
BEFORE TURNING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF CONCERN TODAY ARE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORT-WAVES LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING LOW AT THE SURFACE.
RAIN IS SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA OUT AHEAD
OF THE LOW. A TRAILING COLD FRONT SITTING OVER THE WESTERN
GULF/KODIAK ISLAND IS BEGINNING TO ELONGATE AS THE LOW CONTINUES
NORTHWESTWARD...WITH VERY SLOW FORWARD PROGRESS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE COMBINATION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF KODIAK...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE GULF. THE
ADDITION OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN TO EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA (INCLUDING SEWARD) IS LEADING TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH THE SLOW MOTION OF THE FRONT THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST FOR QUITE A WHILE. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW NEAR
SEA LEVEL AND LOW WATER LEVELS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PROBLEMS WITH
FLOODING. MEANWHILE...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PRODUCING
DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE LEE OF THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS.
LASTLY...STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST ARE LEADING TO STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS BRISTOL BAY. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWEST
TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH A FASTER TRACK OF THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
LOW. THIS WILL BE CRITICAL TO TIMING OF THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND THE LOW. WILL GO HEAVILY WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...BUT
CERTAINLY KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME DIFFERENCES WITH POSITION OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
CROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AS IT CURVES NORTHWARD AND APPROACHES THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. THIS LOW WILL BE IN ITS
WEAKENING PHASE AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH A JET TO DRIVE THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD.
THUS...FOR NOW PREFER THE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER SOLUTION (ECMWF).
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE WEATHER FRONT IN THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAINING STRONG WHICH WILL KEEP THE GUSTY GAP
WINDS THROUGH THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WINDS
BEFORE DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOK FOR THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA REGION TO HAVE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WITH THE SLOW MOVING
WEATHER FRONT COMBINED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO STREAM ABUNDANT
MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SYNOPTIC
FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF AREA. DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DUE TO THE
CROSS-BARRIER FLOW PRODUCING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL AND THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A FAST-MOVING 983 MB LOW IS PARALLELING THE COAST AS IT RACES
NORTHWARD. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW (DRIVEN
BY PRESSURE RISES) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...LINGERING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE DELTA REGION. YET ANOTHER AIR
MASS WARMUP IS TAKING PLACE BEHIND THIS LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 50 ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND PARTS OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT BY AND
LARGE MOST OF THE STEADY PRECIP HAS ENDED. ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION (AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS)...WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SUNSHINE THIS TIME OF YEAR COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME COLD AIR FILTERING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS PREFERENTIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN BERING...THOUGH NONE OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING NOTABLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS IS DUE LARGELY TO A STRONG ZONAL JET SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS THAT LOOKS TO STEER STORMS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA...LEAVING THE BERING/ALEUTIAN REGION IN
BENIGN WEATHER AND ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF AND ALASKA PENINSULA
WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LOW SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE NEXT LOW POISED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS FEATURE HAS IMPROVED
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE CHAIN AND STEADILY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO A POSITION SOUTH OF THE AKPEN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER FOCUSED ON THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE
EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES HOVERING ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM
WESTERN CANADA...WITH ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY LIMITED
TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AD
LONG TERM...CB