Small Craft Advisory 295, NWS Anchorage, AK

397 
FZAK51 PAFC 031138
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-040100-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF KLAWOCK AT 999
MB MON MORNING THEN DISSIPATES MON AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND ONSHORE OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

$$

PKZ119-040100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-040100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-040100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-040100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-040100-
PORT VALDEZ-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-040100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-040100-
VALDEZ ARM-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-040100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-040100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-040100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-040100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-040100-
CHINIAK BAY-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-040100-
MARMOT BAY-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-040100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-040100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-040100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-040100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
338 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
446 AM AKDT SAT APR 2 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALASKA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC REMAINS IN A BROAD RIDGE-TROUGH-
RIDGE PATTERN WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
AMERICAN COAST MOVING EASTWARD...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...AND A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER THE
SEA OF OHKOSK. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH ARE THREE CLOSED
LOWS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW.

THE FIRST SYSTEM MAKING AN IMPACT ON REGIONAL WEATHER THIS
MORNING IS THE LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE Y-K DELTA...HAVING
MOVED NORTHWARD FROM NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS LOW...WITH ITS WEAKENING SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM DELTA...IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION AND INTO THE MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. A SECOND
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TO THE EAST. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THIS LOW AND INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA. FINALLY...A THIRD LOW IS NEAR 40N 170E IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN RUSSIAN COAST...MOST OF
THE BERING SEA REMAINS IN BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE PRIBILOFS AND AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE PLACEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT ON THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 40N 170E BY THE END
OF DAY 2 /MONDAY MORNING/...BUT OVERALL THESE DIFFERENCES WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
LEANS TOWARDS THE NAM...MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OF
DETAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT OF THE TERRAIN GAPS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
ONSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...LINGERING
LONGEST IN UPSLOPE AND ONSHORE THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ON SAT BEFORE A TREND TOWARD DRIER
AND CALMER CONDITIONS ON SUN.

BY SUN...A MODESTLY SHARP TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS COULD MAKE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN PARTY OF
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. BUT THAT SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AND MOST
PLACES WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.
THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KODIAK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING MORE
RAIN AND SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE ISLAND...ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN
SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION IS ON TAP TODAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
KING SALMON AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST OF ALASKA DRIFTS NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND ALLOW A NICE
FETCH OF MOIST AIR TO ADVECT INLAND. MODELS ARE INDICATING A NICE
AREA OF VERTICAL LIFT IN THE 850 MB TO 700 MB LAYER WHICH WILL
LIKELY TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE AND BRING SOME DECENT RAINFALL TO
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY. SOME SNOW
MAY MIX IN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LOCATIONS REPORTING
TEMPERATURE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM QUICKLY EVEN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE UPSWING ACROSS THE DELTA AND LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY BY LATE MORNING AS PRESSURE RISES OF AROUND 1 MB
PER HOUR WILL BE SEEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TODAY ACROSS BOTH INLAND AND COASTAL LOCATIONS. THESE
PRESSURE RISES ARE IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE POKING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL NOT REMAIN DRY FOR LONG AS ANOTHER FRONT
ATTACHED TO A LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
DRIVES A FRONT TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. BASED ON THE
ORIENTATION...TYPICAL LEE SIDE LOCATIONS OF THE ALEUTIAN AND
ALASKA RANGES LIKE KING SALMON AND ILIAMNA WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LARGELY DRY WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS SEE ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOK IMMINENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

MUCH OF THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA AS A DECENT
GRADIENT SETS UP IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS CLASHES WITH HIGHER PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND. A GALE FORCE FRONT ATTACHED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WILL SWING THROUGH THE PACIFIC COASTAL MARINE ZONES OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY HEADING INTO
MONDAY. UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BRING SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
BUT ALL AND ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN QUITE SHOWERY EVEN
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PAINT A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PICTURE
WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NORTHWEST CANADA INTO THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY. THEY ARE STILL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL
DISSIPATE IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. AHEAD
OF THIS...RIDGING WILL SETUP THROUGHOUT THE NORTH
MAINLAND...RIDING ON THE EDGE OF THE BERING TROUGH. AS A RESULT
THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SYSTEMS INTO THE
EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS...WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS STRETCHING
THROUGH THE GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE. AS WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY...THIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WARM AND WET
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH RIDGING
OVER THE INTERIOR THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH
MAINLAND...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE RECORD WARMTH MOST AREAS HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER RIDGING.

WITHOUT THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO BRING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THE WESTERN BERING FOR NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BRING ANY MAJOR
SYSTEMS AS DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RLF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...DK