Small Craft Advisory 265, NWS Anchorage, AK

145 
FZAK52 PAFC 251118
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-260000-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 998 MB LOW 180 NM EAST OF SAINT PAUL WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. A 985 MB LOW 660 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL
BE A 960 MB LOW AT 360 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA NIGHT THEN WEAKEN TO
966 MB 300 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA SAT NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL EXTEND IN AN ARC FROM THE LOW TO 100 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA FRI
NIGHT THEN EXTEND FROM THE LOW IN AN ARC TO 180 NM SOUTH OF SAINT
PAUL SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-260000-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ155-260000-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ160-260000-
BRISTOL BAY-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-260000-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-260000-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-260000-
UNALASKA BAY-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-260000-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-260000-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-260000-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-260000-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT.
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-260000-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-260000-
ADAK TO KISKA-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 45 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 35 KT
BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-260000-
KISKA TO ATTU-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-260000-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-260000-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. AREAS OF
FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-260000-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-260000-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
318 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LOOK AT THE MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LARGE
LOW THAT WAS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA YESTERDAY HAS BEEN WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AND DEFLECTED TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ROTATING CLOCKWISE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AROUND THE UPPER HIGH THAT IS CENTERED NEAR THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN...THOUGH EVEN THIS CLOUDINESS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANOTHER VERY SPRING-LIKE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WEST
OF THE ALASKA RANGE...THIS MOISTURE IS GETTING ENHANCED BY A WEAK
UPPER LOW SITTING IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA...WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AND
MOVING TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. SHALLOW NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE DELTA...WHICH IS RE-SUPPLYING COLD AIR AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND CREATING A FAVORABLE SCENARIO
FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM.

ELSEWHERE...SEASONABLY UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
RIDES ALONG THE ZONAL JET STREAM. THIS PLACES MOST OF THE
BERING/ALEUTIAN REGION IN THE MIDST OF A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/LOWS BUT NO
SPECIFICALLY STRONG OR INCLEMENT FEATURES TO NOTE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN IN VERY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. THE GFS
HANDLES THE POSITIONING OF THE WEAK SURFACE FEATURES IN THE
EASTERN DOMAIN A BIT DIFFERENTLY THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO A
NAM/ECMWF BLEND WAS PRIMARILY USED TODAY. HOWEVER...NO MODELS WERE
WHOLESALE TOSSED OUT DURING THE SHORT OR MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
PERIODS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
INTO CANADA TONIGHT. THIS WILL OPEN UP MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE TO KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE
TO THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT
WILL WORK ITS WAY INLAND WITH "LIKELY" POPS CANVASSING MUCH OF THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A
FORECASTING CHALLENGE. THE USUAL FORECASTING "RULES OF THUMB" FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE (SUCH AS 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES) WILL BE NEAR THE RAIN/SNOW THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM BRISTOL BAY WILL PROVIDE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN BEING PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
NEAR THE SURFACE AND PROMOTES FREEZING RAIN THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING ICE LOOKS TO BE
ALONG THE COAST WEST OF BETHEL WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
TAKE THE LONGEST TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE BY LATE TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH ERODES THE WARM LAYER ALOFT AND INCREASES INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BENEATH A DIFFUSE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL ALSO BRING
STEADIER PRECIPITATION TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...THE SPRAWLING
LONGWAVE WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN
BERING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND PROMOTES A BRIEF DRYING TREND. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE BERING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG FRONT MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ACCOMPANIED BY GALE FORCE
WINDS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

FOLLOWING A BROAD TROUGH SWINGING EAST THROUGH MAINLAND ALASKA AND
THE GULF ON SATURDAY...THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD
CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A LARGE
BLOCKING PATTERN CONSISTING OF A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED AROUND 140W AND A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED AROUND
170W. THE RESULTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL PUMP ABUNDANT QUANTITIES OF WARM MOIST AIR UP INTO SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE FIRST OF THE
SOUTHERLY FRONTAL WAVES WILL REACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA
SUNDAY...KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE
CATCHING UP MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL WAVE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH AN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LADEN SYSTEM RIPPLING NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE NET RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES RAIN...
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND SNOW LEVELS AS HIGH
AS 5000 FT DURING THE WARMEST PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEMS. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA
VALLEY TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY WITH UP TO 5 INCHES
OR MORE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FACING COASTAL REGIONS.
FOR THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY PRECIPITATION
TOTALS CURRENTLY LOOK MORE MODERATE WITH 4 DAY TOTALS BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES...HOWEVER SMALL EAST TO WEST CHANGES IN THE POSITION
OF THE STRONG SOUTHERLY JET BRINGING ALL THE MOISTURE NORTH COULD
EASILY SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...EITHER
INCREASING OR DECREASING THESE AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 155.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 185 412.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...JER