Small Craft Advisory 231, NWS Anchorage, AK

739 
FZAK52 PAFC 141129
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-150015-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 993 MB LOW 90 NM EAST OF SAINT PAUL MOVES TO 60 NM NORTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR AT 1001 MB LATE MON NIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 300 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 1010 MB LATE TUE NIGHT. A STRONG
FRONT ENTERS THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN
INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-150015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ155-150015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. E OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS W WIND 10 KT
INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-150015-
BRISTOL BAY-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-150015-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 10 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-150015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-150015-
UNALASKA BAY-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-150015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-150015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-150015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-150015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-150015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-150015-
ADAK TO KISKA-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-150015-
KISKA TO ATTU-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
SHEMYA W. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-150015-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-150015-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT S OF CAPE
NEWENHAM. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT S OF CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
CAPE NEWENHAM.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY FROM CAPE NEWENHAM N.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-150015-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-150015-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
329 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.

$$

027 
FZAK52 PAFC 142308
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-151230-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 997 MB LOW 150 NM EAST OF SAINT GEORGE WILL MOVE TO 125 NM SOUTH
OF DUTCH HARBOR AS IT WEAKENS TO 1007 MB TUE AFTERNOON...THEN
BECOME ABSORBED INTO A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WED MORNING. A STRONG
FRONT ENTERS THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WED AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED
NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 275 NM WEST OF ATTU AT 969 MB WED
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-151230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NW 15 KT N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. 
SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NW 15 KT N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. 
SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ155-151230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-151230-
BRISTOL BAY-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-151230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-151230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. FROM UNALASKA E...SW WIND 25 KT. 
SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
FROM UNALASKA E...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-151230-
UNALASKA BAY-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ172-151230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF UNALASKA
ISLAND...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT DURING THE MORNING. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-151230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-151230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-151230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ176-151230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-151230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-151230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
BERING SIDE...SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ179-151230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-151230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. FROM CAPE NEWENHAM
S...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-151230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-151230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
308 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
524 AM AKDT SUN MAR 13 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND HAS KEPT SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF ALASKA HAS BEEN STATIONARY SINCE EARLY SATURDAY AND IS BEGINNING
TO STREAM HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER VALLEY
AND CENTRAL GULF. FURTHER WEST...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING. ANOTHER
FEATURE WORTH NOTING OUT WEST...IS A FAST PACED SHORTWAVE TRACKING
EAST ALONG THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
CONFINED TO AREA WATERS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GULF
KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING INLAND HAS
KEPT OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE LOW IMPACT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. THE GUSTIEST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE OCCURRING ALONG A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BERING AS A NEW SURFACE LOW
FORMS IN THE EASTERN WATERS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAINLAND WHILE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS
THE BERING AND GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH RIDGING OVER THE MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY...THOUGH A WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH OVER THE GULF
TODAY COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH GULF COAST...SOUTHERN
KENAI PEN...AND KODIAK ISLAND. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS INLAND AND NEAR COOK INLET WILL ALLOW SURFACE INVERSIONS TO
STRENGTHEN DURING THE MORNING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AND COULD GIVE RISE
TO PATCHY FOG. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE COOK
INLET REGION TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AMPLIFIES (DIGS) SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION (WEST OF COPPER RIVER BASIN). THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANGES OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW (SOUTHWEST). TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST MAINLAND
AREAS WILL CONTINUE MILD TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WEST
OF THE COPPER RIVER WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MON DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE (850MB). WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH WEAK
INTERMITTENT OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED DRY SPELL. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
SPAWNED ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES OF THE BRISTOL BAY AREA SATURDAY
EVENING BY THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. AS THIS LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD A LITTLE BIT THIS
MORNING...THESE FEW STRAY SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. RAIN AND
SNOW CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA SOUTH OF
KING SALMON ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PINCHES OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA NEAR COLD BAY AND DRIFTS
TOWARD THE MAINLAND. AMPLE DRY AIR WILL RESIDE EVEN AS THIS UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD...SO NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED. ON ANOTHER NOTE...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE THIS
STREAK OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COMING TO AN
END BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS
SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND LOOKS
TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
ENDED UP LOWERING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
TODAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS IS A TOUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. WHEN
LOOKING AT IR SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING...IT IS OBVIOUS THAT
THE GREATEST BAROCLINICITY PRESENTLY EXISTS NEAR THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS BUT SHOULD QUICKLY PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE PRIBS
LEAVING THEM IN A MORE SHOWERY PRECIP REGIME. SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 1
INCH LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOR THE PRIBS WHILE THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND ADDS A BIT OF MID-LEVEL
SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA. THIS HAS BEEN STEEPENING THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HELPING TO DEVELOP COLD AIR ADVECTION (INSTABILITY) SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING. MODELS KEEP DEPICTING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SIBERIA DOWN TOWARD ADAK AND
ATKA WHICH TRIES TO DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW. THIS WILL ACT TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THIS TIME-FRAME WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY TWO FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES FOLLOWED BY MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE FIRST FEATURE IS A
STRONG LOW MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATE TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM AT 956MB AND THE EC GOES AS LOW AS
957MB. THE GOING FORECAST ADVERTISES A GALE-FORCE FRONT...BUT WE
WILL BE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM-FORCE
WINDS. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...IT WILL STILL BRING A SHIFT FROM
COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BERING TO WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE OTHER FEATURE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE DROPPING FROM THE INTERIOR
INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY BY TUE NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH DIVES
DOWN...IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE REMNANT LOW COMPLEX NEAR THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AS ALL OF THESE PIECES OF ENERGY
INTERACT...IF THE TROUGH CAN PULL SOME MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
AHEAD OF IT WITH SOME COLDER AIR DIGGING IN BEHIND IT...WE COULD
SEE A THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY THE
FORECAST REMAINS CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE
RESURGING NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE. THERE REMAINS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING HOW ENERGY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH
EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN
AK...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DRY PERIOD. AFTER THAT...MODELS DIVERGE
QUITE DRASTICALLY LEAVING ANY FORECAST DETAILS VERY FUZZY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...170 172 173.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...MO